The Battle of Midway: Did the United States Win Because of Luck?

Harvest of Mars: History and War

“There is a story, no doubt apocryphal, that gamers at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, have many times replayed the 1942 Battle of Midway - but have never been able to produce an American victory.”
– Taken from historian Robert Cowley’s book What If?

“Find better gamers.”
– My response.

In this episode, we look at the celebrated Battle of Midway, in which US naval forces decisively defeated the Imperial Japanese Navy. The prevailing narrative, as portrayed in two Hollywood films, was the plucky and outnumbered Americans were the beneficiaries of good fortune. A deeper analysis reveals that the two sides were almost dead equal in the most important weapons system, carrier aircraft, and the United States had numerous advantages stemming from its massive industrial base. Japan did not lose because it was unlucky or was the victim of an unfortunate confluence of events. The battle itself reveals many of the factors that the United States possessed over Japan in the capacity to wage total war.