The Wire - August 1, 2024

S2 Underground

//The Wire//2100Z August 1, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MIDDLE EAST AWAITS IRANIAN RESPONSE TO ISRAELI STRIKES.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Tensions remain high as the region awaits Iran’s response to Israel’s latest targeting of Hamas, Hezbollah, and IRGC leadership in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. Limited unconfirmed reporting suggests the Houthi forces in Yemen, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon may coordinate a response with whatever actions Iran takes.

United Kingdom: The assailant who murdered three children and wounded many others in Southport has been identified as Axel Muganwa Rudakubana. The judge ruled to deny a protection order regarding the assailant’s identity due to Rudakubana turning 18 years old on August 7th.

-HomeFront-

Virginia: An ammonia leak caused significant injuries at a food processing facility in Sterling yesterday evening. 26 employees of Cuisine Solutions were hospitalized for ammonia exposure, with four employees experiencing severe symptoms. Authorities have indicated the cause of the leak was the failure of a relief valve on an ammonia tank.

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Analyst Comments: Most indications suggest that Iran will probably launch a larger attack than their retaliatory drone strikes back in April. Those previous attacks were comparatively ineffective and afforded Israel many hours to prepare for impact. However, if the Houthi’s are indeed planning to coordinate strikes with Iran (the logistics of which are questionable), this may present additional complications over the next few days. Yemen has already demonstrated the ability to use deception tactics to sneak long-range attack drones along commercial aviation corridors to successfully strike Tel Aviv. The canceling of commercial flights into Israel, and the general dwindling of aviation traffic throughout the entire region may be an acknowledgement that Houthi deception techniques are effective. However, this time, by removing commercial airliners from the equation, it’s not clear as to if the Iranians or Houthi’s will make good use of this trick again.

Analyst: S2A1

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