Allons Travailler! 004 - All of Life is a Wager (Super Forecasting by Philip E. Tetlock)
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Erik van Mechelen - Essays and Fiction and Erik van Mechelen - Essays에서 제공하는 콘텐츠입니다. 에피소드, 그래픽, 팟캐스트 설명을 포함한 모든 팟캐스트 콘텐츠는 Erik van Mechelen - Essays and Fiction and Erik van Mechelen - Essays 또는 해당 팟캐스트 플랫폼 파트너가 직접 업로드하고 제공합니다. 누군가가 귀하의 허락 없이 귀하의 저작물을 사용하고 있다고 생각되는 경우 여기에 설명된 절차를 따르실 수 있습니다 https://ko.player.fm/legal.
If you want to learn about cognitive biases all humans share, you might start with Daniel Kahneman’s ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’, or the paper he wrote in 1974 with friend and colleague Amos Tversky, ‘Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’. Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner have given us an interesting way to practice doing so in their book, Super Forecasting. In their story about a relatively small group of super forecasters who beat IARPA’s own government-backed researchers in a tournament of geopolitical forecasting, Tetlock and Gardner provide a blueprint for beginning one’s own journey of forecasting better than the average human (or at least better than you yourself do now). You can support my work at https://patreon.com/evm/
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