Arthur Hayes, Former Ethereum Skeptic, on Why the Merge Makes Him Bullish on ETH - Ep. 393

Unchained

Arthur Hayes, cofounder of BitMex, discusses how he’s trading the Merge, the impact of macroeconomic policy in the markets, his career as a writer, and much more.

Show highlights:

• how crypto is reconfiguring how humans do finance over the internet
• why Arthur initially thought Ethereum was worthless
• how NFTs allow users to trade human culture and will unlock trillions of dollars of value
• why Ethereum doesn’t even need to be deflationary
• whether other layer 1s can take some market cap from Ethereum
• why Arthur thinks that a successful Merge is understated and why this is a valid reason for hedging
• why he thinks an Ethereum proof of work chain won’t succeed and how Arthur will trade ETHPoW
• why LDO, Lido’s token, is a riskier bet but has more potential gains
• how he believes the Shanghai upgrade will impact ETH’s price
• whether the Merge affects BTC’s narrative as digital gold and whether the inflation hedge theory of Bitcoin still holds
• why Bitcoin is a measure of USD liquidity and why the Fed rates don’t matter as much as everyone thinks
• whether hedge funds and institutional investors would want to invest in crypto given the high correlation with traditional markets
• what Arthur believes the impact of a potential US recession would be on the crypto markets
• why he believes the real economy is not relevant to the financial markets
• whether algorithmic stablecoins are doomed to fail
• how the credit cycle works and how it repeats again and again
• Arthur’s method for identifying good projects to invest in
• how Arthur became such a good writer
• whether BTC is money and the religious aspect of the Bitcoin culture

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Arthur:

• Twitter
• Medium

Episode Links

Previous Coverage on Unchained:

• With the Merge, Will Ethereum Take Over Bitcoin’s Title as Digital Gold?
• Why Kevin Zhou Believes Ethereum Will Have 3 Forks After the Merge
• Post-Merge, If Lido Becomes Dominant, What Does That Mean for Ethereum?

Arthur’s posts discussed during the show:

• Eth-Flexive
• Ether, a double digit shitcoin
• Teach me Daddy (on USD liquidity and Macroeconomics)

Macroeconomics:

• Adam Cochran on the Fed’s QT
• Pantera Capital’s newsletter

ETH Trade:

• Whether Ethereum’s Merge is priced in
• Gauntlet’s view on the Merge
• BTC correlation with stocks

ETH Post-Merge Dynamics:

• Cumberland on the Ethereum dynamics after the merge
• Miles Suter on the implications of the Merge
• The triple point asset

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