E121: Figma $12.5b valuation tender; $625m cash for Reka AI founders/employees; Klarna IPO rumored at +100% vs 2ndary mrkt; OpenAI impresses with GPT-4o; Reddit + OpenAI data deal; Anthropic hires new CPO, launches in Europe; Chime vs payday lenders; Star

This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

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Pre-IPO stock valuations = www.x.com/aarongdillon (see pinned post)
Pre-IPO stock index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
00:07 | OpenAI impresses with GPT-4o
- Capable of handling text, speech, and video
- Refreshed ChatGPT UI and a macOS desktop app
- Verbal conversation improvement was the big surprise, in my opinion
- Watch live demos here = https://x.com/OpenAI
- $97b secondary market valuation, +13% vs last round (Apr 2024)
01:53 | Reddit + OpenAI data deal
- OpenAI to license Reddit data for training
- $ amount OpenAI pays Reddit not disclosed
- Follows OpenAI data deals with Dotdash Meredith, Financial Times
02:53 | Klarna IPO rumored at +100% vs 2ndary mrkt
- $20b IPO could come as early as Q1 2025
- 150m global customers, 40m US customers
- UK based holding company established, sign IPO is coming
- $10b secondary market valuation, +49% vs last round (Jul 2022)
- Investors could make a quick 100% return if entering in the secondary and $20b IPO plays out
03:55 | Anthropic hires new CPO, launches in Europe
- Mike Krieger is new chief product officer
- Krieger co-founded Instagram and sold to Facebook for $1.0b
- Anthropic also launched in Europe; full product suite
- $18.1b secondary market valuation, +0.6% vs last round (Jan 2024)
05:22 | Chime vs payday lenders
- cash advance of $500
- customer must have completed two payroll cycles
- $2 fee, 1-2 day wait to access advance
- 7m customers, profitable in Q1 2024
- $5.3b secondary market valuation, -79% vs last round (Sep 2021)
06:14 | $625m cash for Reka AI founders/employees
- Snowflake rumored to acquire Reka AI for $1.0b
- Reka AI investors; DST Global, Snowflake’s venture arm
- Reka AI founded in 2022, founders/employees still own 62.5% of company (my math)
- $625m for Reka AI’s founders/employees if Snowflake deal goes through
07:14 | Starlink live in Indonesia, Carnival ships
- Starlink live in Indonesia on May 19; Starlink available in 75+ countries
- Starlink live on all 90 Carnival Cruises ships; $15 to $19 per person per day
- $192b secondary market valuation, +6.4% vs last round (Jan 2024)
08:41 | Rippling launches performance mgmt product
- New product to help employers monitor performance continuously and free up HR for complex tasks
- $14.9b secondary market valuation, +11% vs last round (Apr 2024)
09:54 | Figma $12.5b tender
- $600m to $900m deal size
- Current investors, including current and former employees, allowed to sell
- a16z, Sequoia, Kleiner Perkins to invest
- Adobe $20b deal blocked by European regulators, paid Figma $1b breakup fee
10:53 | Pre-IPO -0.67% for week, +30.73% for last 1yr
- Week winners: Rippling +5.9%, Chime +4.2%, Discord +4.1%, Bytedance +2.2%, Revolut +1.3%
- Week losers: Flexport -27.5%, Canva -6.6%, OpenAI -2.4%, Epic Games -2.0%, Anthropic -1.1%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $295b, SpaceX $192b, OpenAI $97b, Stripe $74b, Databricks $43b
11:39 | +0.26% 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index
- www.agdillon.com/index for fact sheet pdf
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Epic Games +172%, Rippling +100%, Revolut +42%, Klarna +35%, Anduril +33%
- Looking at all 20 vintages … here are the winners and losers for the week; winners = Rippling +5.9%, Chime +4.2%, Discord +4.1% and losers = Tanium -10.9%, OpenAI -2.4%, Epic Games -2.0%
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older…
…3.31 distributed paid in capital (DPI)
…2.05 residual value to paid in capital (RVPI)
…5.36 total value to paid in capital (TVPI)
…4.1 years to “return the fund”