#198 Raoul Pal On The Economic Singularity: "We've Got 6 Years To Make As Much Money As We Possibly Can"

The Julia La Roche Show

Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 198 to share his macro outlook and why he thinks we're headed for an Economic Singularity with the rise of AI.

✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account.

Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/raoulgmi GMI: https://globalmacroinvestor.com/ Real Vision: https://www.realvision.com/

00:00 Welcome Raoul Pal and Real Vision's 10-year anniversary

01:39 The Everything Code and macro cycles explained

05:38 Explaining liquidity and its sources

07:29 Central banks, liquidity, and currency debasement

11:42 Risk-taking and asset performance in the current environment

15:02 The exciting macro setup and market opportunities ahead

17:43 Addressing misconceptions about recessions and market bubbles

22:23 Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation outlook

25:58 Raoul's evolution to a more optimistic market view

34:45 The concept of economic singularity explained

38:20 AI's impact on productivity and economic growth

42:20 Preparing for the economic singularity in the next 6 years

43:58 Bitcoin as a high-performing asset

45:07 Real Vision's past and future outlook

48:58 Closing thoughts on "unf***ing your future"