Baseline + Anomaly = Decision

The Human Behavior Podcast

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In this powerful and highly practical episode, we unpack one of the most important (and misunderstood) aspects of human behavior analysis: the concept of baseline plus anomaly equals decision (B + A = D).

During the episode, we dive deep into why our cultural obsession with "red flags" and anomalies often leads us astray, and why everything starts with understanding normal.

We also challenge the reactive approach to behavior analysis that seeks checklists for “bad actors” and instead, we show how developing a high-fidelity, context-rich baseline is the real key to situational awareness and predictive analysis. We briefly explore the origins of the Combat Hunter program, and provide real-world examples (from garbage day confusion to gas station parking lots), and illustrate how unconscious pattern recognition drives both correct and incorrect decisions.

Here's what you'll learn:

• Why context is king in behavioral observation
• How your brain already makes constant baseline-anomaly comparisons and how to do it better
• Why focusing only on anomalies can lead to dangerous blind spots
• How to build robust baselines using simple daily exercises
• What professionals (LE, military, teachers, EMTs) can do to spot pre-event indicators earlier

This episode is a must-listen for anyone in high-stakes roles, parents, educators, or anyone who wants to improve their ability to "read the room" (and their world) with greater clarity and confidence.

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More about Greg and Brian: https://arcadiacognerati.com/arcadia-cognerati-leadership-team/

챕터

1. Baseline Over Red Flags (00:00:00)

2. The Algorithm: B + A = D (00:02:40)

3. Context Builds A Robust Baseline (00:09:55)

4. External Vs Internal Baselines (00:17:30)

5. Seeing Anomalies Emerge From Normal (00:25:20)

6. Time, Distance, And Better Decisions (00:33:40)

7. Updating Baselines In Flux (00:42:00)

8. Likelihood, Danger, And Hypothesis Testing (00:51:10)

9. Everyday Drills To Sharpen Baseline (01:00:05)