October 10th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (Fri, 10 Oct 2025, US Open)

Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, geopolitics
Excluded: Equities, fixed income (unless tied to FX), crypto

FX

• USD: Eases after four-day climb; focus pivots to September CPI (BLS preparing release despite shutdown).
• JPY: Volatile—MoF flags “one-sided, rapid” FX moves; Komeito signals exit from 26-year coalition with LDP, briefly strengthening JPY before two-way swings.
• EUR: Sub-1.16, steady with French PM decision pending.
• GBP: Stabilizes near 1.33 after recent softness.
• AUD/NZD: Antipodeans firmer on stronger CNY fix, but NZD still heavy post-RBNZ -50 bp and open door to more cuts.

Commodities

• Oil: Softer; Gaza ceasefire headlines trim risk premium; chatter of Saudi flows to China lower in Nov vs Oct.
• Gold: Marginally higher after dip below $4,000/oz; haven interest steady as USD pauses.
• Metals: Copper retraces as China risk tone cools amid tech/trade frictions.

Trade, Tariffs & Tech Policy

• China: Reported customs crackdown on US AI chips; special port fees on US vessels start Oct 14; earlier expanded export controls on rare earths, batteries, graphite, super-hard materials (Dec start).
• US: Near framework to allow US chip exports to Saudi Arabia; probing possible workarounds to chip rules; considering pharma tariffs with potential generics exclusion.
• Bilateral tracks: US–Japan aim to smooth trade deal implementation; US–India review progress; Vietnam–US talks set for Oct/Nov.
• Rhetoric: White House floats curbing “massive” imports from China; plans to raise soybeans directly with Beijing.

Geopolitics

• Middle East (Gaza): Israel approves plan; military says ceasefire effective 10:00 BST; first phase includes hostage–prisoner exchange and initial withdrawal to agreed line. US signals support, possible small role in joint task force with Egypt/Qatar; Houthis say they’ll monitor compliance.
• Russia–Ukraine: Mass strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure; widespread eastern outages; US hints at additional sanctions on Moscow.
• Taiwan/China: Taipei warns of intensified hybrid warfare (AI-enabled cyber ops, gray-zone pressure); accelerates air-defense build-out.
• UN: Plans ~25% cut to peacekeeping deployments due to funding; UNSC to meet on US–Venezuela tensions.

Watch next

• US CPI for FX direction.
• Implementation milestones on the Gaza ceasefire.
• Real-economy impact from China’s chip enforcement and port fees.
• Oil reaction to ceasefire and Saudi–China flows.
• Gold behaviour around $4k and USD/JPY volatility amid Japan politics.