The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 016 - Manoeuvre Is Dead – But It Can Be Revived

The Defence Horizon Journal - Podcasts

Technological innovations such as ubiquitous drones have led to a stalemate in the current war in Ukraine. Western observers who see the war of attrition as a disadvantage ask whether it can be transformed into a war of manoeuvre. We argue that this is only possible if the West succeeds in exploiting competitive advantage through innovations that are not accessible to or exploitable by opponents. To show this, we first extend the dichotomy to a triad of “guerrilla – attrition – manoeuvre”, including strategic shifts such as “unfreezing and freezing”. Drawing on civil literature on innovation, we argue that the unfreezing of attrition into manoeuvre corresponds to exploiting competitive advantages gained through innovation. However, because today's cutting-edge innovations come from civilian industry, they lack rarity and inimitability, and their respective advantages are, therefore, not sustainable. Until this situation is rectified, manoeuvre warfare will remain dead. The only way out is to develop decisive non-civil innovations or to focus on those competitive advantages, such as soft power, that the enemy cannot exploit.

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