Player FM 앱으로 오프라인으로 전환하세요!
Bond Market Returns Have Never Been Worse, Why it Will Wreak Havoc for Investors
Manage episode 379533209 series 3378373
“We are entering a period when over the next six to nine months something could go wrong and historically, it's when the yield curve steepens,” says Alfonso Peccatiello, founder and CEO of The Macro Compass. He explains that if the steepening continues, it will cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy because "the inversion of the yield curve is a leading indicator of a recession.”
He believes it’s likely that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, but it will keep the federal-funds rate above the level of inflation for 24 to 27 months. “That’s what worries me... They are not talking about cutting rates even if inflation slows down," he says. And he stresses that the impact of the Fed's aggressive rate-hike policy hasn't settled into the economy. “We're entering the periods where the macro lags are more likely to kick in because the curve has been inverted already for 17 months and it's now steepening back,” he says. Finally, he advises investors to decrease exposure to equity markets and invest in treasuries.
➡️ Watch Here
174 에피소드
Manage episode 379533209 series 3378373
“We are entering a period when over the next six to nine months something could go wrong and historically, it's when the yield curve steepens,” says Alfonso Peccatiello, founder and CEO of The Macro Compass. He explains that if the steepening continues, it will cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy because "the inversion of the yield curve is a leading indicator of a recession.”
He believes it’s likely that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, but it will keep the federal-funds rate above the level of inflation for 24 to 27 months. “That’s what worries me... They are not talking about cutting rates even if inflation slows down," he says. And he stresses that the impact of the Fed's aggressive rate-hike policy hasn't settled into the economy. “We're entering the periods where the macro lags are more likely to kick in because the curve has been inverted already for 17 months and it's now steepening back,” he says. Finally, he advises investors to decrease exposure to equity markets and invest in treasuries.
➡️ Watch Here
174 에피소드
Все серии
×플레이어 FM에 오신것을 환영합니다!
플레이어 FM은 웹에서 고품질 팟캐스트를 검색하여 지금 바로 즐길 수 있도록 합니다. 최고의 팟캐스트 앱이며 Android, iPhone 및 웹에서도 작동합니다. 장치 간 구독 동기화를 위해 가입하세요.