Forecasting Through Fog — Rebecca Rockey on Stagflation, Tariffs & the CRE Outlook

The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

Rebecca Rockey, Deputy Chief Economist and Global Head of Forecasting at Cushman & Wakefield, joins the LightBox team for a focused conversation on the macroeconomic forces shaping commercial real estate in the back half of 2025. With stagflation creeping in, tariffs hitting record highs, and policy uncertainty clouding forecasts, Rebecca breaks down what’s different about this cycle and why the road ahead could be bumpier than many expect. From the surprising resilience in CRE capital markets to growing inflationary pressures in the goods economy, she explains why retail and industrial are especially vulnerable, and how the multifamily and office sectors are navigating this transition. Rebecca shares why construction costs are poised to rise 4.5% due to tariffs, how that could pause new development, and what that means for vacancy and rent trends heading into 2026. She also weighs in on where the Fed might land on rate cuts, what’s really driving office recovery (hint: it’s not just RTO), and why 2027 could shape up to be a banner year for CRE. Packed with data, context, and a dose of Rolling Stones wisdom, this episode is a must-listen for anyone looking to make sense of an uneven economic outlook.

01:04 Stagflation Watch: Are We Already There?

03:35 Policy Shocks & Forecasting in Uncharted Waters

04:42 Resilience in Capital Markets

13:00 Sector Snapshot: Retail, Industrial, Office & Multifamily

21:18 Construction Cost Crunch & Development Slowdown

31:17 The “One Big Beautiful Bill” & What It Means for CRE

34:00 Crystal Ball Closeout: Labor Signals, CRE Resilience & What’s Next

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