CRE 2025 Forecast – Rate Cuts, Resilience, and the Rise of AI with Economist Ryan Severino

The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

We welcome back Ryan Severino, Managing Director, Chief Economist and Head of Research at BGO, for a sweeping conversation on the macroeconomic forces shaping commercial real estate in the back half of 2025. Fresh off being named one of PERE’s 100 most influential figures in global real estate, Ryan joins the LightBox team to unpack everything from the timing of potential rate cuts and labor market risks to the rise of AI-driven forecasting and why multifamily may be the ultimate outperformer in a high-tariff environment.

With his signature contrarian perspective, Ryan explains why he correctly predicted fewer, later rate cuts this year and why he sees more downside risk in the labor market than runaway inflation. He unpacks how trade policy shifts and tariff shocks are distorting Fed strategy, creating "triple whammy" risks for consumers, and slowing – but not halting – CRE recovery. You'll also hear why his firm, BGO is doubling down on AI-powered forecasting, how Gen Z is reshaping retail demand, and why office might finally be turning a corner.

From real-time data revisions to trillion-point predictive models, this episode is packed with timely insights on what's working, what’s wobbly, and what lies ahead for CRE. Don’t miss Ryan’s bold predictions and the one indicator he’s watching most closely.

01:29 Economic Predictions and Market Analysis

03:11 Impact of Recent Job Reports

06:08 Fed's Dual Mandate and Rate Cuts

17:52 Commercial Real Estate Market Sentiment

24:29 Sector-Specific Insights: Multifamily, Office, Industrial, and Retail

35:42 The Role of Technology in Forecasting

Have questions for the pod team? Send them to [email protected].

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