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What the 2024 Rate Cutting Cycle Might Look Like
Manage episode 407183780 series 3558639
JP Conklin에서 제공하는 콘텐츠입니다. 에피소드, 그래픽, 팟캐스트 설명을 포함한 모든 팟캐스트 콘텐츠는 JP Conklin 또는 해당 팟캐스트 플랫폼 파트너가 직접 업로드하고 제공합니다. 누군가가 귀하의 허락 없이 귀하의 저작물을 사용하고 있다고 생각되는 경우 여기에 설명된 절차를 따르실 수 있습니다 https://ko.player.fm/legal.
On this week's Rate Guy podcast, we're zoning in on one of the biggest questions we got from ULI: what will rate cuts look like in 2024. We'll unpack the three potential paths the Fed might take and the reasoning behind each. Plus, we're taking a closer look at that less-than-stellar jobs report to see what it really means. And expect a common thread to emerge from the flurry of Fed speeches lined up this week—we'll tell you what we think that will be.
As promised, Ken/Barbie photo, the Sphere ad and the Birth/Death graph.
Birth Death adjustments continue their suspicious upward trend. Remember, this is the government’s estimate of jobs created out of the “birth or death” of businesses…but it’s a total guess. Is it weird to anyone else that this fudge factor keeps going up month to month? We are becoming overly reliant on this estimate to maintain positive job gains so the headlines can scream “tight labor market!”
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