Is The Housing Correction Over In Canada?

Reformed Millennials - Learn Earn and Invest

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* Joel and Cam debate Threads vs. Twitter

* Market Update

* The problem F1 is having with its fair weather fan base.

* Recommendations and must listens

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📈📊Market Update💵📉

What a first half of the year.

The market has ripped into the summer and we’ve seen meaningful upside resolution from the S&P500. But the rest of the world hasn’t kept up. In DataTreks most recent newsletter, they talked about the lagging ROW(rest of world).

from their free report:

The theme of today’s Story Time Thursday is “the invisible becomes visible”. The first example is real interest rates, which for many years were zero or negative. Now they are high and rising, lifting 10-year yields and corporate cost of/access to capital. The second example is investors’ expectations for US/global equity returns. Q2’s sluggish rest of world equity performance is a good reminder that non-US stocks have a disappointing long term track record, most probably due to a fundamental lack of shareholder value creation. This will not likely change soon.

Data: Today’s JOLTS report showed US job openings fell back below 10 mn in May, but they still outnumbered unemployed workers by 1.6x versus 1.2x in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Our “Take this job and shove it” indicator (quits/total separations) rose to 68.4 pct versus 60.4 pct in Feb 2020. Workers remain confident in finding better paying jobs, while employers are still reluctant to let employees go given an ongoing labor shortage/still decent economy. Today’s JOLTS report and strong ADP jobs print show why Chair Powell continues to signal additional rate hikes this year.

Disruption: 1: Today’s Initial Claims report was broadly in line with expectations (unlike ADP). Claims are slowly moving higher as the year progresses, a trend we expect to continue.

2: Two-year Treasury yields briefly broke out to new post-Pandemic Era highs this morning but closed lower than that key level. Stocks responded in near lock step. We continue to believe 2-years above 5 percent put a bit of a damper on stocks over the near term.

Threads vs. Twitter:

It’s a completely different social graph and there’s two ways to look at it:

“𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 won’t work because it doesn’t allow you to import your Twitter followers”

Let me invert that statement for you:

How many of your non-Twitter friends would become activated on Twitter if they could import their 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺 social graph?

Zuck is incredibly good at throwing his weight behind something at the precise moment his products begin to lose relevancy.

He never misses the next train.

Only Elon could have made all this happen. He has been the most charitable tech person of 2022 and 2023 by paying out ex-Twitter employees that he despises top dollars for their Twitter shares last year and now juicing the stock of his competitor Face/Insta/Metabook shares to $300 by destroying his own shareholder’s value at Twitter. Bravo.

While people dismiss the idea of ‘Threads’ because it is Zuckerberg and data evil, as Fred Wilson (a seed investor in Twitter who has stopped using Twitter) says in his post today

Threads is about two really important things:

1/ Competition for Twitter. Long overdue and badly needed.

2/ The emergence of a widely supported social media protocol. Which should produce a vibrant and interoperable social media ecosystem.

* Top 10 stocks so far in 2023

🎙Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙

* The Future of Ai with LinkedIn’s Reid Hoffman

Topics: what percentage of the American population will eschew it, how gaming will evolve, whether AI’s future will be open-source or proprietary, the binding constraint preventing the next big step in AI, which philosopher has risen in importance thanks to AI, what he’d ask a dolphin, what LLMs have taught him about friendship, how higher education will change, and more. They also discuss Sam Altman’s overlooked skill, the biggest cultural problem in America, the most underrated tech scene, and what he’ll do next.

* Noam Chompsky On World Of Politics and Liberalism

🔮Best Links of The Week🔮

* Why Starlink is such a big deal. - Source: Casey Handmer

* Student loan debt in America is about to reemerge as a major problem for their politicians and pocketbooks. Starting September 1st, people with debt will have to restart their monthly payments. - Source: Payitoff

* Portfolio Nuclear. - Source: The Gregor Letter

* AI: Building Value over Time via Tech Stacks, Staircases and Loops. - Source: AI A Reset To Zero

* "Private sector jobs surged by 497,000 in June, well ahead of the 267,000 gain in May and much better than the 220,000 estimate. Leisure and hospitality led with 232,000 new hires, followed by construction with 97,000, and trade, transportation and utilities at 90,000. The unexpected jump in payrolls comes despite more than a year’s worth of Federal Reserve interest rate increases." Source: CNBC

* "Meta said more than 30mn people had signed up to its long-awaited competitor to Twitter in what chief executive Mark Zuckerberg pitched as a “friendly” alternative to the struggling social media platform owned by Elon Musk." Source: FT

"Electric-vehicle sales in the U.S. surged by 50% in the first half of the year, although the pace of growth slowed amid a buildup of unsold EV inventory at dealerships. For the first half of 2023, automakers sold 557,330 electric vehicles with the growth rate far eclipsing that of conventional cars, according to data released Thursday by research firm Motor Intelligence. Sales of internal-combustion-engine vehicles grew about 10% in the period. EVs are a small but rapidly expanding part of the new-vehicle market, accounting for 7.2% of overall sales in the January-to-June period, up from 5.4% a year earlier." Source: WSJ

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