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#9 Harry Halem – A Major Conflict is coming in the 18-24 Months in the Middle East!
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- Iran gains leverage over Russia due to the Ukraine war, increasing its freedom of action.
- Political instability in Israel, making it seem like a less credible regional actor.
- Sino-Iranian Saudi negotiations, reducing the odds of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program.
- Potential triggers for conflict include an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program, a border dispute between Azerbaijan and Iran or Armenia, or a third Lebanon war between Israel and Hezbollah.
- The US, Russia, and China may react differently to a conflict in the Middle East, with Russia potentially supporting Iran to create further problems for the West.
- Europe may face implications from a Middle East conflict, such as a split in attention between Ukraine and the Middle East, disrupted trade in the Eastern Mediterranean, and potential spillover effects triggering more refugee crises.
- Lead indicators to watch for include the transfer of sophisticated military technology between Russia and Iran, an increase in low-level violence, and Israeli mobilization or major rehearsals for strike operations.
- The Israeli political system is not structured to handle the current domestic issues, making it difficult to predict how the situation will unfold.
- A Middle East conflict could potentially disrupt global supply chains and increase shipping costs in the Eastern Mediterranean.
- The most fundamental issue for European security remains the conflict in Ukraine, which could be further complicated by a Middle East conflict.
Harry Halem is a Research Fellow in Foreign Policy and Defence. He specialises in grand and maritime strategy, defence industrial issues, and strategic history, particularly of British strategy from 1890 to 1945. Mr Halem holds an undergraduate degree in Philosophy and International Relations from the University of St Andrews, and a postgraduate degree in Political Theory from the London School of Economics, where he specialised in comparative intellectual history.
EPISODE LINKS:
Harry's Profile on Yorktown Institute - https://yorktowninstitute.org/fellows/harry-halem/
Harry's Twitter - https://twitter.com/Naval2ndStrike
Check us out on https://www.cassandra.global/
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