From Solar’s 90% Cost Crash to AI’s Energy Surge: The Economics Driving Climate Tech

Hardware to Save a Planet

Solar panel costs have dropped 90% in the past two decades, transforming clean energy from subsidy-dependent to economically viable on its own. If we care about scaling climate tech, we need to understand the role of economics, policy, and geography in shaping which solutions thrive.

In this episode of Hardware to Save a Planet, host Dylan Garrett welcomes Pavel Molchanov, Investment Strategy Analyst at Raymond James, to share insights from his 20 years of studying energy markets. Pavel explains why economic viability is more important than technical breakthroughs, how different regions demand different solutions, and why climate adaptation will be essential. He offers a clear-eyed view of what it really takes for climate tech to achieve global impact.

What you will learn:

• How solar panel costs dropped 90% in 20 years and what this teaches us about technology scaling
• Why policy support isn't the end-all, be-all for climate tech success
• The key differences between "carrot" and "stick" climate policies
• How geography and local conditions determine the optimal mix of climate solutions
• Why economic viability, not just technical feasibility, is crucial for climate tech success
• How AI is both driving massive energy demand and enabling better grid management
• Why adaptation strategies will be crucial for the next 20-40 years
• How consumers can take meaningful climate action through EVs, solar adoption, and dietary choices

Pavel Molchanov is an Investment Strategy Analyst at Raymond James, focusing on energy, climate, and basic materials. With over two decades of experience, he began covering renewables in 2006 and is recognized as one of Wall Street’s leading voices in climate tech investing. A frequent guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, Pavel connects policy, science, and markets across sectors like solar, EVs, hydrogen, and carbon capture. He also serves on multiple advisory boards and supports global climate and sustainability initiatives.

Episode Resource

• Pavel Molchanov on LinkedIn
• Raymond James Website
• Dylan Garrett on LinkedIn
• Synapse Website
• Hardware to Save a Planet Apple Podcasts
• Hardware to Save a Planet Spotify

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Previous guests include: Peter Reinhardt of Charm Industrial, Carlos Araque of Quaise, Noah McQueen of Heirloom, Areeb Malik of Glacier, Jeff Satwicz of Bigbelly, Abe Schneider of Natel Energy, Insiya Jafferjee of Shellworks, Paul Gross of Remora, Erika Boeing of Accelerate Wind and Daniel Betts of Blue Frontier.
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