Spending Bill DEAD? Direct Farm Payments at Risk??

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Trump Opposes Stopgap US Government Spending Bill
President-elect Donald Trump has voiced strong opposition to the stopgap US government spending bill. In a Fox News interview, Trump stated that he is totally against the bill, although he doesn’t have the power to veto it, as he isn’t president yet. Trump’s influence over Republican lawmakers could still impact the bill’s passage. The spending package, if passed, would fund the government through mid-March. However, if the bill fails, the government could face a partial shutdown as early as Saturday. The bill includes $31 billion in aid for US farmers, which has been a point of contention for many agricultural groups.
Soybean Futures Collapse Amid Bearish Market Sentiment
Soybean futures took a significant hit on Wednesday, with the March 2025 contract losing more than 25 cents per bushel. On a continuation basis, spot futures posted their lowest trade since late August. A breakout below key technical support earlier in the week likely triggered additional selling pressure. Fund traders were estimated to have sold 20,000 contracts, contributing to the downward trend.
Brazil's Soybean Crop Estimate Continues to Rise
Estimates for Brazil’s soybean crop continue to grow. Patria Agronegocios, a Brazilian consulting group, now expects the crop to reach 170.4 million metric tons (mmt), slightly above the USDA's forecast of 169 mmt. Brazil’s corn crop is also projected to be robust at 129.3 mmt, compared to the USDA's estimate of 127 mmt.
US Ethanol Production Strong Again
US ethanol production was strong last week, with output reaching 1.1 million barrels per day, a 2.3% increase from the previous week and 2.7% higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks stood at 22.6 million barrels, slightly lower than the prior week but still up 2.4% year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand was up 1.3% compared to the previous week and 1% higher than last year, reflecting consistent fuel demand. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 2.9% compared to the same period last year.
Biden Administration Awards $116 Million to Fertilizer Industry
The Biden administration has awarded $116 million to the fertilizer industry to help increase competition and lower costs. The funds will be distributed to eight facilities to expand fertilizer production across nine states. This investment comes as agricultural groups and lawmakers have criticized the consolidation of the $140 billion US fertilizer industry.
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates for Third Time in a Row
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, marking its third consecutive rate cut. The new benchmark short-term rate is now 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed signaled that it expects to reduce rates only twice in 2025, as opposed to the previously anticipated four cuts. The news sent stock markets tumbling, with the Dow Jones falling 2.6%, the S&P 500 dropping 3%, and the Nasdaq losing 3.6%.
The USDA reported flash sales on Wednesday:
135,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn were sold to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal were sold to Colombia for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.