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GLED012 - Fed Easing Setup - CMBS Maturity Wall, Cap Rates Hold, SWFs Pivot
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GLOBAL REAL ESTATE DAILY에서 제공하는 콘텐츠입니다. 에피소드, 그래픽, 팟캐스트 설명을 포함한 모든 팟캐스트 콘텐츠는 GLOBAL REAL ESTATE DAILY 또는 해당 팟캐스트 플랫폼 파트너가 직접 업로드하고 제공합니다. 누군가가 귀하의 허락 없이 귀하의 저작물을 사용하고 있다고 생각되는 경우 여기에 설명된 절차를 따르실 수 있습니다 https://ko.player.fm/legal.
- Fed Watch: 92% probability of a 25 bps cut at the September 16–17 FOMC. 10-year UST ~4.04% near a five-month low; 5-year ~3.61%. Bank CRE rates ~5.70–6.22%; agency ~4.91–5.15%. - CMBS: Delinquency 7.29%; office ~11.7%. H1 2025 issuance at post-GFC highs, ~74–75% SASB. ~$150.9B 2025 maturity wall; ~23% office exposure. - Cap Rates: Stabilization continues. Industrial ~5.0%; Multifamily Class A ~4.74%; Office Class A ~8.4%; Data centers ~5.8%. - SWFs & Pensions: SWFs trimming direct real estate (~7.3%) while lifting infra (~8.1%) and private credit/real estate debt. Pension funds increasing REIT usage to 70% (2025). - Sectors: Office vacancy ~14.2% with flight-to-quality (NYC, DFW, Austin, Nashville, Miami). Industrial vacancy ~7.12% with 3PLs ~35% of leasing. Multifamily rent growth 1.5–2.6% for 2025; construction starts rolling over. Retail vacancy at 20-year lows; Miami ~2.8%. Positioning - Debt: Lock favorable coupons into the cut window; prioritize SASB-quality collateral. - Equity: Industrial/logistics and data centers for durable cash flows; selective Class A office only in absorption-positive submarkets; retail neighborhood centers with tight supply. - Capital Programs: Increase allocation to real estate debt strategies; stage dry powder for Q4–Q1 bid-ask normalization. Contact: [email protected]
23 에피소드
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