Evan Silva’s Matchups: Saints at Packers

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Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football

New Orleans @ Green Bay

Team Totals: Saints 14, Packers 28.5

Although I’m tempted to pick the Saints so Silva’s cheesehead friends annoy him with screenshots all night, the truth is Spencer Rattler is ice skating uphill at Lambeau Field in mid-December with Derek Carr (broken left hand) done for the year. Green Bay has created pressure at the seventh-highest rate (32.7%) out of their bye, and Rattler has completed just 43.8% (36th) of his passes for zero touchdowns and three turnovers under duress. … Kendre Miller instills as much confidence as the starting RB for a 14-point road dog possibly can in place of Alvin Kamara (groin), most recently out-touching Jamaal Williams 10 to 0 and, in two games off injured reserve, running 23 routes to Williams’ six. Zach Charbonnet’s 24-yard TD run against the Packers lends hope for Kendre to explode for one as an every-touch RB2, especially if stud LB Quay Walker (ankle) is scratched. Our own Pat Thorman ranked Miller (RB21) ahead of Jerome Ford (RB22) and Patrick Taylor Jr. (RB32) — other available waiver options.

Even with All-World CB Jaire Alexander (knee) practicing in full, Marquez Valdes-Scantling can stay afloat as a FLEX for Rattler’s ability to carry a WR1 for 5/45/1, 6/57/1, and 8/107/0 in his three starts, coming off the bench against Washington and quietly connecting with MVS for gains of 39 and 25 yards; it’s hell on Earth behind him with “Kevin Austin” (53% route participation in Week 15), Dante Pettis (47%), and Cedrick Wilson (44%) turning eight targets into a combined 32 yards in that one. Perhaps Bub Means (questionable) can return to the same 21% and 15.6% target shares he earned in two starts before his head injury. … Both Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau are live in showdown for their specific roles: Johnson’s run a route on an increased 76% of dropbacks in his last three games around Taysom Hill’s injury, and Moreau leads the Saints in end-zone targets (7). The latter’s long +450 odds to score a touchdown on DraftKings are fishy (in more ways than one).

There’s no denying Jordan Love’s dominance in five starts post-bye, completing 68.7% of his passes (eighth) for an NFL-best 9.8 YPA; the concerns are in his volume for Green Bay’s 47% dropback rate (31st) in that time, sinking to 30th in PROE (-7.8%) to date. Love still mustered a QB13 finish against the Seahawks as a fringe QB1 in any blowout. … The Packers will undoubtedly give the rock to Josh Jacobs and get the hell out of the way given his touch counts of 22 (RB5), 26 (RB2), 23 (RB5), 18 (RB4), and 30 (RB6) post-bye. New Orleans has allowed at least 16.8 fantasy points to enemy RB1s in eight of their last 10 games.

Romeo Doubs’ 19.2% target share against Seattle (despite resulting in two touchdowns) leaves a lot to be desired in any low-volume game script, finishing third behind Jayden Reed (23%) and Christian Watson (23%). For what it’s worth, New Orleans has used Cover 2 on 28% (third) of their snaps under interim HC Darren Rizzi and it’s Reed who’s been targeted on a team-high 27% of his routes against said scheme; Dontayvion Wicks’ Yards Per Route Run have also leaped from 0.55 (103rd) in one-on-one coverage compared to 1.86 (43rd) against zone. Having said that, Wicks’ route participation (30% < 36% < 29%) has sunk dramatically behind Watson’s (70% < 64% < 54%) in their last three starts with all four available. I rank them Reed > Watson > Doubs > Wicks for those reasons in season-long leagues and Reed > Wicks > Watson > Doubs for DFS. … Even if Luke Musgrave (ankle) were activated from injured reserve, Tucker Kraft was the TE10 in per-week points (8) with a 12.3% target share (17th) in the four games he started with Musgrave. Even so, I’m bearish on Kraft’s season-long outlook for this inevitable run-first game script. The Saints have additionally allowed a single TD to tight ends all year.

Score Prediction: Packers 27, Saints 10