Evan Silva’s Matchups: Saints at Chiefs

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Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football

New Orleans @ Kansas City

Team Totals: Saints 18.5, Chiefs 24.5

New Orleans and Derek Carr hit the ground running with 47 and 44 points in their first two games but have since sputtered due to C Erik McCoy’s (groin, I.R.) and RG Cesar Ruiz’s (knee) injuries, pitting Carr under pressure on 37.9% (10th) of his dropbacks (for only 3.2 yards per attempt) compared to his 18.6% duress (30th) through Week 2. Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo leaked a QB2 finish to Lamar Jackson in the season opener (due to Lamar’s 16/122/0 on the ground) but has since terrorized pocket statues (including Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins) for 17.2, 11.1, and 11.2 fantasy points. Carr is a questionable QB2 at Arrowhead. … Alvin Kamara remains the engine of New Orleans’ offense, handling 20+ touches in every appearance including 29 and 26 (with five weekly targets) the past two games. Spags’ front seven has been to war against Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, and J.K. Dobbins (just to new a few) this year and has still held enemy RBs to 3.1 yards per carry (second) and the third-lowest rate (1.9%) of explosive runs. Kamara’s volume at this time will never leave him out of lineups regardless of his on-paper matchup. Kendre Miller (eligible to be activated from injured reserve ahead of Monday) is an intriguing stash for 12-/14-team leagues given Kamara’s workload at age 29.

One of the most condensed pecking orders in the NFL under OC Klint Kubiak, Rashid Shaheed (24.8% target share) and Chris Olave (22.8%) have combined for 47.6% of New Orleans’ targets and 84% of their Air Yards. The WR26 in per-week points, Shaheed has yet to dip below a 20.8% share in any game and remains a locked-in top-36 option. Same goes for Olave, who’s earned 40%, 26%, and 27.7% of Carr’s targets since his Week 1 letdown. … UDFA Mason Tipton (5-foot-9/179) ran 15 of his 40 routes from the slot the past three weeks, where Kansas City’s secondary was dissected by Drake London (5/55/1) and Ladd McConkey (4/62/1) in back-to-back tries. … Taysom Hill’s new rib injury suffered on the other side of his body against the Falcons naturally surged Juwan Johnson to a season-high 71% route rate. He’s the sexier play over Foster Moreau in the interim given the latter’s 77% blocking rate.

Kansas City allowed pressure on 44% (fourth) of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks against the Chargers and remain completely neutral in their weekly pass rate, inching closer to last season’s run-heavy approach following Rashee Rice’s serious knee injury. Mahomes has finished outside the top 12 at his position in nine consecutive games (and 10 of his last 11), garnering QB1 status if only for his name. Justin Fields and Geno Smith, both who are available in a majority of 1-QB leagues, are better starts in a vacuum for Week 5. … The Chiefs’ workhorse (18/74/0) in their first game without Isiah Pacheco (knee, I.R.), Carson Steele lost a fumble on Kansas City’s first drive and was promptly out-touched 16-1 by Kareem Hunt the rest of the way, additionally ceding the team’s only carry inside the 5-yard line to Samaje Perine. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s (I.R., doubtful) debut delayed another week, Hunt projects to see the lion’s share of touches as a top-24 RB. Perine is interesting on one-game slates (assuming reduced ownership) for his increased 37% route participation sans Pacheco against a Saints linebackers room permitting 8.2 per-week receiving points to RBs.

With Rice feared to have torn his right ACL while chasing down an interception, the Chiefs’ new 3-WR set consists of No. 28 overall pick Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Worthy has yet to record an 18% target share in any game but has scored his three touchdowns (including one rushing score) from 54, 35, and 21 yards out. It’s admittedly worth shopping him around in sell-high deals in case he fails to earn a larger share. Even with Rice as a part-time player until the team’s Week 9 bye in 2023, Watson spiked one top-24 (and no top-12) finish from two-wide sets all year. JSS scored a touchdown in Week 3 but laid an egg in the box score (around his 54% route share) after stepping in for Rice from the slot. Neither inspires confidence behind Worthy. Skyy Moore will get the nod in Showdown if Mecole Hardman (knee, questionable) can’t go. … It’s an increasingly terrific spot for Travis Kelce after the 35-year-old reached season-high marks in target share (32.1%) and route rate (91%) in his first game without Rice. Both Luke Schoonmaker (6/43/0) and Dallas Goedert (10/170/0) produced TE1 numbers against DC Joe Woods, and New Orleans has since listed numerous LBs on their injury report. For one-game offerings, note that Noah Gray was targeted on 40% (fourth) of his routes once Rice left the field.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 21, Saints 17