WMP saves the day

Economy Watch

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of an unexpected development in South Korea.

But first, dairy prices edged up slightly again in this morning's latest full dairy auction, but that doesn't really tell the story of this event properly. With the local milk production season now past its peak, lesser volumes were on offer. And buyers seem to have already stocked up for Christmas and Chinese New Year. So it will be no surprise to know that most commodities slipped in price today - apart from a +4.1% surge in the WMP price. Almost alone, this twisted the overall index to a +1.2% rise in USD terms, and a +1.6% rise in NZD terms

In the US last week there was something of a surge in retail sales with the benchmark Redbook index rising 7.4% from the same week a year ago. Buying before Trump's tariff-tax seems to be becoming a thing. Black Friday was in both weeks, this year and last year.

Also rising more than expected were US job openings in the US. Their JOLTS report seems to show that October data ends a longish easing in the rising in hiring. It also shows that employees are less afraid to quit to find another job.

And more optimism is found in the RealClear Markets/TIPP survey for November.

And the US logistics industry seems to be settling into a positive phase with another good expansion in November.

Across the Pacific, we should not a rather stunning development in South Korea, our fourth largest trading partner. Martial law has been declared by their embattled President. It seems the 'anti-state forces' he is battling are internal ones in labour unions. Even members of his own party are opposing the declaration. Apparently his wife is a key influencer in this decision. His move looks very uncertain at this time, and legislators have voted against the move.

The South Korean currency, the Won, fell hard, back near GFC and Asian Financial Crisis levels.

In China, State media is talking up the rise in real estate sales transactions, both by households in some cities, and by developers.

And later today in Paris, French legislators will vote on whether to topple the Barnier government.

And later today, the Aussie will release their Q3-2024 GDP result - which is expected to show a +1.1% expansion from the same quarter a year ago. That would be about the lowest since the pandemic.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.20%, up +2 bps from yesterday.

The price of gold will start today at US$2650/oz and up +US$10 from this time yesterday.

Oil prices are +US$2 higher at US$70/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is +US$1.50 higher at just over US$73.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.8 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we down -20 bps at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 55.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.3, and down -10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,045 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at +/- 1.5%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.