台湾总统选战开打 谁主沉浮 Taiwan’s three-way presidential race

东谈西论

在上星期五引起哗然的五人记者会之后，台湾政坛蓝白合终究还是蓝柯一梦，以分道扬镳收场。国民党以悲愤的情绪宣布全党总动员支持侯友宜搭配媒体人赵少康参选正副总统。

民众党主席也在上星期六协同民众党立委，大财团千金吴欣盈登记参选。

民进党的总统候选人赖清德立刻开炮，指责蓝白合的这场戏码都只是为了政党利益。

据说台湾有高达六成五的选民希望政党轮替，但是蓝白不合，在野必输。如今蓝白破局，民进党是否已经稳操胜券？国民党一博成功的机会有多高？柯文哲率领的民众党是否会如传说般的泡沫化呢？在这场选举中，大陆因素又会如何影响台湾选民的决定？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和中山大学政治学研究所荣誉教授廖达琪解析这场台湾大选。

延伸阅读：

• 伟达：世纪大棋局中的台湾大选
• 杨丹旭：蓝白破局台海难乐观

Taiwan’s January presidential election is a three-way race after the proposed opposition alliance failed to materialise. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) did not agree on a joint presidential ticket and registered separate candidates while billionaire businessman Terry Gou pulled out of the race before the nomination deadline.

KMT's presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih and TPP’s candidate Ko Wen-je have announced their running mates, with Hou pairing with pro-China media personality Jaw Shaw-kong, and Ko selecting lawmaker Cynthia Wu Hsin-ying, whose family holds a significant stake in the conglomerate Shin Kong Group.

Hou and Ko will run against Willima Lai Ching-te, the vice president and presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Lai has picked Taiwan's de facto ambassador to the US, Hsiao Bi-khim, as his running mate.

Has the dramatic breakdown in negotiations between the opposition leaders to form an alliance paved the way for DPP to hold on to power? How will mainland China influence the outcome of the Taiwan presidential election in 2024?

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, host Han Yong Hong and Emeritus Professor Da-Chi Liao of Graduate Institute of Political Science at National Sun Yat-sen University (NSYSU) dissect Taiwan’s three-way presidential race.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Google Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast platforms.

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챕터

1. 台湾总统选战开打 谁主沉浮 Taiwan’s three-way presidential race (00:00:00)

2. 蓝白不合后选举大势已定？ (00:02:44)

3. 柯文哲票太少其实对国民党不利 (00:07:41)

4. 以数据分析选情 (00:10:01)

5. 最大变数是什么？ (00:16:21)