The Biden Economy, the Weimar Republic, and Conte's Close Call

Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the future of the economy. I predict we will see three distinct phases. In the next few weeks, the economy will continue to decelerate, with accompanying market turbulence, to the mobility drop associated with Covid-19. But going forward over the next several months into the summer, both will go strongly positive, buoyed by the vaccine and Biden stimulus. In 2H, however, look for outlook to darken just when the party is rockin'--due to rising inflation expectations, Covid-19's adaptive mutations, and a new form of political "resistance."

25,000 National Guard troops patrol DC. Capitol Hill hasn't seen this many armed soldiers since 1865. Reflecting on the storming of the Capitol, I draw parallels between the present-day and Hitler's failed "beer hall putsch" in 1923.

Will Biden scrap Trump's executive order? Last year, Trump signed an executive order that US stock exchanges must delist companies working with the Chinese military. Biden has yet to comment on the issue. But with his priorities focused on C19 and growing bipartisan support for being tough on China, he will likely let it stand for the time being.

Italian PM Giuseppe Conte survives a confidence vote. In Italy, former PM Matteo Renzi removed his party from the ruling coalition. This sparked an immediate confidence vote in parliament. PM Giuseppe Conte easily received a majority of votes in the lower chamber. The Senate was a different situation. He narrowly received the most votes but did not secure a majority. Why is the Conte regime still hanging on? Probably because the deputies want to avoid a legislated one-third downsizing of their number due to go into effect as soon as there is another government. Conte will hobble on, greatly weakened.

In 2020, the share of eligible Americans who actually voted was 66.7%. This was higher than in any year since 1900. This follows the off-year election of 2018, in which the share was the highest in 104 years.