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Seeing the future
Manage episode 380043882 series 3466363
Paul Richards & Joe Wiggins, Paul Richards, and Joe Wiggins에서 제공하는 콘텐츠입니다. 에피소드, 그래픽, 팟캐스트 설명을 포함한 모든 팟캐스트 콘텐츠는 Paul Richards & Joe Wiggins, Paul Richards, and Joe Wiggins 또는 해당 팟캐스트 플랫폼 파트너가 직접 업로드하고 제공합니다. 누군가가 귀하의 허락 없이 귀하의 저작물을 사용하고 있다고 생각되는 경우 여기에 설명된 절차를 따르실 수 있습니다 https://ko.player.fm/legal.
In this episode we discuss how we can make better forecasts with Professor Paul Goodwin.
We tackle everything from the techniques available, to human problems around understanding, bias and incentives. See the chapter headings for full details.
Notes
Philip Tetlock's book is Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
A paper that describes the key concepts can be found here.
챕터
1. Seeing the future (00:00:00)
2. Worst forecasting joke ever (00:00:39)
3. Introduction to Paul Goodwin (00:00:43)
4. Podcast overview (00:01:21)
5. Introduction to scenario analysis (00:02:00)
6. Disrputing stratgic inertia (00:03:44)
7. Making scenario analysis useful (00:04:38)
8. The problem of scenario bias (00:06:39)
9. Avoiding denial of unpleasant scenarios (00:07:42)
10. Can scenario analysis make us complacent? (00:08:19)
11. How can we make 'Devil's Advocates' work? (00:09:22)
12. When do groups outperfom individuals? (00:11:39)
13. An introduction to the Delphi Technique (00:14:13)
14. Challenges in group decision-making (00:17:02)
15. The role of models and where they add value (00:20:22)
16. When should we 'tweak' models? (00:23:25)
17. Communicating forecasts to non-experts - challenges + solutions (00:29:13)
18. Incentive problems in forecasting (00:34:38)
19. Explainability and belief (00:36:26)
20. Superforecasters (00:37:25)
21. Subject matter expertise vs. forecasting skill (00:40:10)
22. How do we help non-professional decison-makers make better choices? (00:42:47)
23. Paul's 5 key suggestions for better forecasts (00:44:48)
18 에피소드
공유
