CropGPT Sugar - Thailand Drought. Brazil Down. India Up -April 29th

CropGPT

Full reports available on CropGPT site

India

• Sustainability and Competitiveness: India's sugar industry continues its 10-year roadmap, focusing on sustainability, competitiveness, water management, research and development, technological advancements, and policy frameworks.
• Domestic Consumption: Heatwaves and elections have led to record-high domestic consumption, driving prices up.
• Production: Maharashtra exceeds projections, closing the season positively. Overall, India's sugar output from October to April 15 fell by 0.5% year-on-year to 31.09 million metric tons, with fewer mills in operation. 84 mills are still running, compared to 132 last year.
• Export Restrictions: India's exports are limited to 6.1 million metric tons compared to 11.1 million metric tons the previous year, aiming to maintain domestic supplies.
• Monsoon Projections: The Meteorological Department projects 106% monsoon rainfall for 2024, which could boost production.

Ukraine

• Sowing Progress: Sugar beet sowing is progressing steadily, with financial aid for farmers. The Khmelnytskyi region has completed sowing, reflecting Ukraine's commitment to sugar production.
• Production and Exports: Agribusiness Astarta reports a 34% increase in sugar production, driving significant growth in exports. The Poltava region's expansion of sugar beet cultivation exemplifies efficient practices and could enhance Ukraine's global market share.

Europe

• Planting: The planting season saw a slow start but has increased in pace. Spain and Poland are making good progress.
• EAEU Region: In the Eurasian Economic Union region, sugar beet cultivation is expanding, with Belarus doubling its area and Russia leading in production.
• Pesticides: France's increased pesticide use to combat pests has sparked environmental concerns.

Morocco and Tunisia

• Morocco: Lower yields due to unfavorable conditions.
• Tunisia: Expected improvements in production.

Thailand

• Drought Impact: Sugarcane production reduced to 82.2 million tons in fiscal year 2023-24, down from 93.9 million the previous year.
• Future Outlook: An increase is expected next year as farmers shift from cassava to sugarcane, motivated by higher prices.
• Weather Impact: Rainfall has been lower than last year, and El Nino may continue to depress yields. The government estimates 2023/24 production at 8.77 million metric tons by April 17, exceeding previous estimates.

Brazil

• Production Forecast: The 2023/24 sugar production forecast has been revised down by 2.6% to 45.7 million metric tons. However, Brazil reports record levels of sugarcane processing, sugar, and ethanol production, contributing to global decarbonization efforts.
• Prices: Global prices saw a mixed week. May New York World Sugar #11 ended Friday down -0.08 (-0.51%), while August London ICE White Sugar #5 closed up +0.10 (+0.02%).
• Brazil's Output: Sugar prices were pressured by increased supplies, with Brazil's 2024/25 sugar production jumping by +31.0% year-on-year. The National Food Supply Company projects 2024/25 production at 46.292 million metric tons, up +1.3% year-on-year.
• Market Recovery: Sugar prices recovered Friday after the Brazilian real rallied to a 1.5-week high against the dollar, discouraging export selling from Brazil's sugar producers.

Global Projections

• USDA Report: The United States Department of Agriculture projects 2023/24 global sugar production to climb by +4.7% year-on-year to 183.461 million metric tons, while consumption rises by +1.2% to 178.431 million metric tons. Ending stocks are forecasted to fall by -13.3% year-on-year to a 13-year low of 33.681 million metric tons.
• ISO Deficit Estimate: The International Sugar Organization has increased its 2023/24 global sugar deficit estimate to -689,000 metric tons, emphasizing the delicate balance between supply and demand.