Whit Ayres: The Republican Party, Donald Trump, and the Road to 2024

Conversations with Bill Kristol

What did the midterm elections reveal about Donald Trump’s strength in the Republican Party? What are the central tensions in the GOP as we head into 2023—and what are Trump's chances to win the nomination in 2024? Might Republican elected officials, donors, and other elites coalesce around an alternative candidate like Ron DeSantis? To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran Republican pollster and strategist Whit Ayres. According to Ayres, the unmistakeable pattern of losses by MAGA-aligned, election-denying candidates indicate that Trump’s position in the Party is weaker than before. But unwavering support from what Ayres calls the Always Trump faction of the Republican electorate still gives Trump a significant advantage heading into 2024. However, developments in 2023, including decisions of Republican elites to mobilize on behalf of a single challenger to Trump, could prove decisive. Kristol and Ayres also discuss how Democrats might respond to the prospect of a third Trump candidacy, and how that might affect Joe Biden’s decision to seek reelection.