Potential ag policy changes leave questions for markets | Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield Ag News

This week Will and Ben look at shifting production numbers and the future of ag policy.

Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):

» December 2024 corn up $.14 at $4.30

» December 2025 corn up $.05 at $4.45

» January 2025 soybeans up $.25 at $10.22

» November 2025 soybeans up $.10 at $10.45

» December soybean oil up 2.58 cents at 48.14 cents/lb

» December soybean meal down $4.50 at $299.60/short ton

» December 2024 wheat up $.03 at $5.65

» July 2025 wheat down $.06 at $5.98

» December 2024 cotton down 0.24 cents at 69.69 cents/lb

» December 2025 cotton flat at 72.72 cents/lb

» October WTI Crude Oil down $3.68 at $68.04/barrel

Weekly highlights:

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates 25 basis points at their November meeting. The short-term borrowing rate is now in a range of 4.5-4.75 percent.

US energy stocks were up across the board this week- crude oil up 90.3 million gallons, gasoline up 17.3 million gallons, distillate fuels up 123.8 million gallons and ethanol up 10.5 million gallons. Gasoline demand was up 4% week over week.

US ethanol production surged to 325 million gallons produced on the week- up from 318 million the week prior and working closer to the record 326 million gallons in one week set back in July.

USDA lowered corn yield 0.7 bushels per acre to 183.1 bushels per acre. Grain sorghum yields were increase 3.1 bushels per acre to 60.8. Soybean yields were lowered 1.4 bushels per acre to 51.7 bushels per acre and fell below all pre-report estimates. Rice and cotton yields were unchanged month over month.

Open interest was up across the board this week: wheats (+4.7%), corn (+0.7%), soybeans (+1.0%), soybean oil (+7.1%), soybean meal (+1.2%), cotton (+1.6%) and rough rice (+19.5%).

Money managers were net buyers of Chicago grains and oilseeds this week. Traders were net buyers of corn (39,746), soybeans (2,114), and soybean oil (26,179), more than offsetting the net sales in other commodities.

US export sales of US grains and oilseeds were strong again this week. Corn sales of 108.9 million bushels exceeded all trade expectations. Soybean oil sales have heated up and also exceed all pre-report expectations. Soybean and wheat sales were down week over week but within trade expectations at 74.9 and 13.8 million bushels, respectfully.

US Crop Conditions:

US corn and soybean yields declined this month compared to October according to USDA. Corn is still estimated at a record yield of 183.1 bushels per acre. Most states saw some deterioration in corn yields- including Missouri that saw yield fall to 182 bushels per acre- down from 185 bushels per acre estimated previously. Even with the monthly decline- Missouri’s corn yield remains 19% better than 2023 due to better growing conditions.

Topics:

» Market recap

» USDA production estimate adjustments (corn, soybeans, sorghum, cotton)

» Potential shifts in ag trade policy

» Farm Bill solution unlikely in near future

» Reports to watch

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