Interest Rate Shock! Is Inflation Coming?

Broken Pie Chart

Interest rates made a historic move higher last week as the treasury bond market sold off. But is this spike in interest rates previewing a higher move in inflation in the short term? What are breakeven inflation rates saying? Is the FED owning 30% of the TIPS bond market skewing inflation expectations?

What is duration risk in bond portfolios?

How does lower rates extend duration risk in bonds?

Investor expectation of annual returns equal to the current yield to maturity?

2018 when both stocks and bonds via the US Aggregate Total Return Index were negative.

Fed has purchased 30% of the TIPS Treasury Inflation Protected Bond Market

2nd highest precent change in 5-year treasury yields back to 1962.

CPI Consumer Price Index

Weighting of the CPI index components

COVID-19 impact on consumer prices and inflation

5-year breakeven rate inverted with the 10-year breakeven rate

YTD bond funds down even on a total return basis

Mentioned in this Episode:

How do TIPS Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Work? https://brokenpiechart.libsyn.com/fed-buying-which-etfs-and-bonds-how-do-tips-treasury-inflation-protected-bonds-work

CPI Consumer Price Index release for January 2021 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Understanding TIPS bonds https://www.pimco.com/en-us/resources/education/understanding-treasury-inflation-protected-securities/

Explaining negative yielding bonds https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wacky-negative-yielding-bonds-need-for-alternative/id1432836154?i=1000442461907

Real returns vs nominal returns above inflation https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/importance-real-returns-above-inflation-how-to-calculate/id1432836154?i=1000440384756

Myths of the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/discussing-myths-around-the-classic-60-40-portfolio-part-i/id1432836154?i=1000434346248

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

Contact Derek www.razorwealth.com