Andrew Dickens: I warned you that Winston is back and I was right

Andrew Dickens Afternoons

A couple of weeks ago, I warned you that Winston is back and I was right.

The latest political poll by Horizon Research released today finds New Zealand First with 6.75% support – and in a position to decide which parties would form a Government.

This result would deliver the party 9 seats in a 120-seat parliament.

So, Horizon finds Labour would win 40 seats, the Green party 15. A total of 55. Not enough to form a Government.

Meanwhile, National would win 37 seats and ACT 17. A total of 54. Again not enough.

Meaning that NZ First would be the kingmaker once again. To get back into parliament the party needs either an electoral seat or 5% of the vote and on this poll it does that.

Horizon is a company that involves Graeme Colman, ex of NBR, and other professionals with 30 odd years of experience so I don’t feel it is biased.

So the coalition partners are stable. ACT continues to be strong with 13% of the vote but that seems to be coming from National voters.

This result should worry both the main parties. Labour has continued to track down while National has stalled in tracking up. There’s a feeling that both parties are under performing.

Labour’s problems are well documented. Grand promises, poor achievements.

For instance, 100,000 Kiwibuild houses promised 5 years ago. As of the end of last month we were at 1430 Kiwibuild houses. It’s a better picture for all public social housing with nearly 10,000 built in 5 years. But remember that 4800 public houses have been sold or demolished in the same time.

And so it goes on.

It should be a free ride for National but it hasn’t been. Perhaps it’s that the electorate can see the emperor has no clothes on.

Tax cuts are not a cost of living policy. They inject more money into those above the median wage and very little to those below. The wealthier continue to fuel the inflating prices while the poor suffer. It’s economics 101 and the electorate can see it, they saw it in real time in the UK, and so centre right voters continue to leach to ACT.

Of course National voters get conniptions whenever Winston hits kingmaker level because of the perceived treachery of his Labour coalition deal 5 years ago.

But on the evidence of this poll perhaps they need to get over that because it doesn’t look like Winston’s going away.

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