Player FM 앱으로 오프라인으로 전환하세요!
Andrew Dickens: Economy set to catch a chill from coronavirus outbreak
저장한 시리즈 ("피드 비활성화" status)
When? This feed was archived on March 29, 2025 20:09 (). Last successful fetch was on November 28, 2024 14:53 ()
Why? 피드 비활성화 status. 잠시 서버에 문제가 발생해 팟캐스트를 불러오지 못합니다.
What now? You might be able to find a more up-to-date version using the search function. This series will no longer be checked for updates. If you believe this to be in error, please check if the publisher's feed link below is valid and contact support to request the feed be restored or if you have any other concerns about this.
Manage episode 254332203 series 2098448
I’ve always bit a bit concerned but optimistic that this will pass quickly and life and trade will go back to normal.
After all the last coronavirus, SARS, came and went. A virus that was more deadly than this current one.
But there’s a couple of things that have got me more worried.
When I interviewed Health Minister David Clark yesterday on the extension of Chinese visitor bans, I said the often quoted argument that influenza kills more people but we don’t ban visits from infected areas. David agreed but said the difference is that we have vaccines for flu.
Until we create a medical wall against the spread of the virus, then the physical wall of visitor bans will have to stay in place unless the virus peters out, which it doesn’t look like doing.
And then there was a piece in the South China Morning Post that warned that Covid 19 was going to be more damaging to the Chinese economy than SARS.
Put simply, the virus may be less deadly but it’s more catchy and it’s therefore not petering out and the quarantining, which is what hurts the economy, is going to go on for longer.
SARS killed 800 quickly. It cut two percentage points from China’s real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2003 and caused US$50 billion of damage to the global economy.
These days the Chinese economy is four times bigger than it was 17 years ago and we’re all a lot more connected and dependent on China.
The outbreak happened in the Lunar New Year holiday when everyone was travelling spreading this catchy little virus far and wide. More Chinese holiday now than 17 years ago, making it harder to quarantine it out of existence.
Hospitality, retail, air travel, transport, entertainment and tourism will be among the sectors hardest hit, sectors that have grown the fastest in China as they move away from manufacturing into services and consumption.
Add all this into the continuing friction with the US with the tariff wars, the number of moribund economies around the globe and the forthcoming Brexit bubble and the South China Morning Post thinks the chance of a Chinese economic meltdown are higher now than ever before.
You and I are not going to die of Covid 19. We’ll probably not even catch it. But the economy will be getting a chill if not a full blown illness.
Meanwhile, I heard Simon Bridges this morning promising 3 per cent growth under National because he says his party are just better at this economy stuff. Good luck with that, Simon.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
656 에피소드
저장한 시리즈 ("피드 비활성화" status)
When? This feed was archived on March 29, 2025 20:09 (). Last successful fetch was on November 28, 2024 14:53 ()
Why? 피드 비활성화 status. 잠시 서버에 문제가 발생해 팟캐스트를 불러오지 못합니다.
What now? You might be able to find a more up-to-date version using the search function. This series will no longer be checked for updates. If you believe this to be in error, please check if the publisher's feed link below is valid and contact support to request the feed be restored or if you have any other concerns about this.
Manage episode 254332203 series 2098448
I’ve always bit a bit concerned but optimistic that this will pass quickly and life and trade will go back to normal.
After all the last coronavirus, SARS, came and went. A virus that was more deadly than this current one.
But there’s a couple of things that have got me more worried.
When I interviewed Health Minister David Clark yesterday on the extension of Chinese visitor bans, I said the often quoted argument that influenza kills more people but we don’t ban visits from infected areas. David agreed but said the difference is that we have vaccines for flu.
Until we create a medical wall against the spread of the virus, then the physical wall of visitor bans will have to stay in place unless the virus peters out, which it doesn’t look like doing.
And then there was a piece in the South China Morning Post that warned that Covid 19 was going to be more damaging to the Chinese economy than SARS.
Put simply, the virus may be less deadly but it’s more catchy and it’s therefore not petering out and the quarantining, which is what hurts the economy, is going to go on for longer.
SARS killed 800 quickly. It cut two percentage points from China’s real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2003 and caused US$50 billion of damage to the global economy.
These days the Chinese economy is four times bigger than it was 17 years ago and we’re all a lot more connected and dependent on China.
The outbreak happened in the Lunar New Year holiday when everyone was travelling spreading this catchy little virus far and wide. More Chinese holiday now than 17 years ago, making it harder to quarantine it out of existence.
Hospitality, retail, air travel, transport, entertainment and tourism will be among the sectors hardest hit, sectors that have grown the fastest in China as they move away from manufacturing into services and consumption.
Add all this into the continuing friction with the US with the tariff wars, the number of moribund economies around the globe and the forthcoming Brexit bubble and the South China Morning Post thinks the chance of a Chinese economic meltdown are higher now than ever before.
You and I are not going to die of Covid 19. We’ll probably not even catch it. But the economy will be getting a chill if not a full blown illness.
Meanwhile, I heard Simon Bridges this morning promising 3 per cent growth under National because he says his party are just better at this economy stuff. Good luck with that, Simon.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
656 에피소드
All episodes
×플레이어 FM에 오신것을 환영합니다!
플레이어 FM은 웹에서 고품질 팟캐스트를 검색하여 지금 바로 즐길 수 있도록 합니다. 최고의 팟캐스트 앱이며 Android, iPhone 및 웹에서도 작동합니다. 장치 간 구독 동기화를 위해 가입하세요.