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Uncuffed empowers people in California prisons to tell their own stories. The award-winning collaboration between incarcerated student producers and professional journalists shines light on the human experience of people before, during, and after their prison terms. The new Season 4 is hosted by formerly incarcerated producer Greg Eskridge. https://www.WeAreUncuffed.org

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What is the illusion of information adequacy?

약 1년 전 11:19

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ActiveInvestorMag.com에서 제공하는 콘텐츠입니다. 에피소드, 그래픽, 팟캐스트 설명을 포함한 모든 팟캐스트 콘텐츠는 ActiveInvestorMag.com 또는 해당 팟캐스트 플랫폼 파트너가 직접 업로드하고 제공합니다. 누군가가 귀하의 허락 없이 귀하의 저작물을 사용하고 있다고 생각되는 경우 여기에 설명된 절차를 따르실 수 있습니다 https://ko.player.fm/legal.

How you ever wondered why people think they're right, even when they are wrong? Researchers Hunter Gehlbach, Carly D. Robinson, and Angus Fletcher just published a study that found that participants, regardless of the information they received, believed they had sufficient information to make a competent decision and felt confident in their choices. Moreover, they assumed that others would make similar decisions, demonstrating the false consensus effect.

Deep dive audio courtesy of NotebookLM.

… continue reading

24 에피소드

#Trading #Business #Impossible Portfolio

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What is the illusion of information adequacy?

published 약 1년 전

공유

M4A•에피소드 홈

ActiveInvestorMag.com에서 제공하는 콘텐츠입니다. 에피소드, 그래픽, 팟캐스트 설명을 포함한 모든 팟캐스트 콘텐츠는 ActiveInvestorMag.com 또는 해당 팟캐스트 플랫폼 파트너가 직접 업로드하고 제공합니다. 누군가가 귀하의 허락 없이 귀하의 저작물을 사용하고 있다고 생각되는 경우 여기에 설명된 절차를 따르실 수 있습니다 https://ko.player.fm/legal.

How you ever wondered why people think they're right, even when they are wrong? Researchers Hunter Gehlbach, Carly D. Robinson, and Angus Fletcher just published a study that found that participants, regardless of the information they received, believed they had sufficient information to make a competent decision and felt confident in their choices. Moreover, they assumed that others would make similar decisions, demonstrating the false consensus effect.

Deep dive audio courtesy of NotebookLM.

… continue reading

24 에피소드

#Trading #Business #Impossible Portfolio

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1
What is the illusion of information adequacy? 11:19

22 weeks 전11:19

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

11:19

How you ever wondered why people think they're right, even when they are wrong? Researchers Hunter Gehlbach , Carly D. Robinson, and Angus Fletcher just published a study that found that participants, regardless of the information they received, believed they had sufficient information to make a competent decision and felt confident in their choices. Moreover, they assumed that others would make similar decisions, demonstrating the false consensus effect. Deep dive audio courtesy of NotebookLM.…

1
Is the passive 60/40 investment portfolio outdated? 11:26

23 weeks 전11:26

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

11:26

Ben Inker is the Co-Head of Asset Allocation at GMO . In his September newsletter , he makes the case for deviating from a traditional 60/40 asset allocation strategy. Key arguments: Historical performance doesn't guarantee future results: While the 60/40 portfolio has performed well historically, past performance may not indicate future success, especially given current market conditions. Valuation concerns: Inker argues that both stocks and bonds, particularly in the U.S., are trading at historically high valuations, which could lead to disappointing returns in the medium term. Periodic underperformance: There have been six periods averaging 11 years each where a 60/40 portfolio either broke even or lost money in real terms, often following periods of strong returns. Lack of flexibility: A static 60/40 allocation doesn't adjust to changing market conditions or valuations, potentially missing opportunities or exposing investors to unnecessary risks. Overexposure to overvalued assets: The current 60/40 portfolio is heavily weighted towards expensive U.S. growth equities and credit exposures with narrow spreads over Treasuries. Geographic concentration: The traditional 60/40 portfolio is typically dominated by U.S. assets, potentially missing opportunities in other markets, particularly non-U.S. equities that are currently cheaper relative to the U.S. Limited diversification: The 60/40 strategy relies primarily on two risk premia (equity and inflation), potentially missing other diversifying exposures and alternative risk premia. Inability to capitalize on market dislocations: A static allocation can't take advantage of extreme valuation disparities, such as the current opportunity in deep value stocks or the spread between value and growth stocks. Currency effects: The 60/40 portfolio may not adequately capture opportunities arising from currency valuations, such as the current tailwind provided by cheap non-U.S. currencies. Changing risk premia: As valuations change, risk premia also change, suggesting that a more dynamic approach to asset allocation may be beneficial. Sector-specific opportunities: The traditional 60/40 approach may miss sector-specific opportunities, such as the current potential in Japan small cap value equities. Inability to use alternative strategies: The 60/40 portfolio can't incorporate strategies like long/short equity, which could potentially enhance returns and manage risk in the current market environment. Inker suggests that the GMO Benchmark-Free Allocation Strategy, a more flexible, valuation-sensitive, and globally diversified approach to asset allocation may be more appropriate in the current market environment and potentially lead to better risk-adjusted returns over time.…

1
What is ontology and why it produces weapons-grade AI for Palantir 10:52

24 weeks 전10:52

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

10:52

Palantir Technologies joined the S&P 500 Index today. Back in June , CEO Alex Karp discussed the company's AI platform AIP , which uses "ontology" to refine large language models (LLMs) and make them valuable for enterprise applications. He claims AIP creates transformative value for businesses by improving efficiency, accuracy, and resource allocation, with examples from construction, healthcare, and the military. Karp described ontology as a crucial component of Palantir's approach to making large language models (LLMs) useful for enterprises. He explained that ontology is the framework that allows businesses to effectively leverage LLMs within their specific operational contexts. Key points about ontology: It imposes the logic of a business on the large language model, including the security and intellectual property considerations specific to that enterprise. Ontology allows for the refinement of LLMs, which Karp likens to a "raw resource" or "emergent property," into something that can be practically used within a business context. It enables the transformation of non-technical people into technical people by providing a structured way to interact with AI models. Karp suggests that ontology, along with chips, is one of the two parts of the AI market that are creating real value. He claims that Palantir's ontology approach allows businesses to use AI to transform their enterprises, change margins, and improve efficiency in ways that were previously not possible or prohibitively expensive. In the context of defense, Karp mentions that the combination of large language models and ontology can be wielded as a "very deadly weapon," creating efficiencies for smaller armies against larger ones. Karp argues that AI, specifically the combination of LLMs and ontology, is crucial for American competitiveness and national security, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to develop powerful software-driven weapon systems. He also highlights the growing importance of this technology for businesses and the U.S. government. Overall, Karp positions Palantir's ontology as the key to unlocking practical, valuable applications of AI in both commercial and defense sectors, bridging the gap between the potential of LLMs and their actual implementation in real-world scenarios.…

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Curtis Yarvin foreshadowed the Rise of X Twitter 20:24

2 years 전20:24

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

20:24

Curtis Yarvin gamed out a scenario for an American Caesar and the role that a ubiquitous social media app would play, namely, followers could "put yourself at the remote control of Trump himself ... literally you have a crowd in which each individual can be steered around like a joystick by Trump himself." This possibility is not idle speculation, since according to Reuters , "Trump's company faces a crucial deadline when shareholders of DWAC have until 10 a.m., Sept. 5 to vote to extend the period of time DWAC has to complete its merger with TMTG. If DWAC does not get the votes, the SPAC will liquidate on Sept. 8." Excerpt from the May 21, 2021 episode of American Mind, hosted by Michael Anton.…

1
Van Vliet on the High Return-Low Volatility Paradox 11:02

2 years 전11:02

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

11:02

This is a supercut of three interviews with Pim van Vliet , the Head of Conservative Equities and Chief Quant Strategist at Robeco. Along with Jan de Konig, he is co-author of the book, High Returns from Low Risk: A Remarkable Stock Market Paradox .

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Investment logic and the power of IF, THEN, ELSE 40:27

2 years 전40:27

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

40:27

The headline says U.S. stocks roar back in 2023 to book best seven months to start a year in decades , yet many investors and professionals missed out on the gains due to their bearish outlook. We were pessimistic too, but our investment portfolios experienced a much different outcome. Why?

1
Sam Kunz, the Making of a Fund Manager 31:54

2 years 전31:54

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

31:54

My friend Sam was featured in Episode 84 of the Fiftyfaces podcast dated June 28, 2021, a year after going back into private wealth management after a stint at the University of California where he served as head of asset allocation and investment strategy.

1
Stephen Laipply on fixing the 40 percent allocation to bonds 4:07

2 years 전4:07

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

4:07

BlackRock US head of fixed income ETFs Stephen Laipply says, "“Investors are looking at this market, the public fixed-income markets, and realizing that they can ‘fix’ their 40 by de-risking it to varying degrees . . . it really is an opportunity to get back to what that 40 was supposed to do, which is diversify your risk assets.” He appeared on Bloomberg What Goes Up on February 23, 2023 .…

1
Don Bacon v Kevin Roberts on the debt limit and budget cuts 20:32

2 years 전20:32

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

20:32

Republican Don Bacon represents Nebraska's 2nd District; he appeared on the February 23, 2023 episode of Media + Politics 101 podcast . Kevin Roberts is the president of The Heritage Foundation; he appeared on Steve Bannon's war room on February 4, 2023 . Let's compare and contrast their positions.

1
Seth Carpenter on measuring house inflation and the outlook for monetary policy 6:17

2 years 전6:17

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

6:17

Seth Carpenter is the Chief Global Economist at Morgan Stanley. He worked for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve for 15 years. During the 2007-09 financial crisis, he was a senior member of the Division of Monetary Affairs, meaning he was part of the team that advised the Board and members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in setting monetary policy. He led the team that worked daily with the Open Markets desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to implement policy. Carpenter left the Federal Reserve System as Deputy Director of Monetary Affairs to work at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, where he became the Acting Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets. He appeared on the February 17, 2023 episode of Bloomberg Surveillance .…

1
David Kelly on wage gains and inflation 11:44

2 years 전11:44

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

11:44

With the exception of high earning tech workers fearing layoffs, the way for the masses of low-wage workers to get an immediate pay raise is to move to the same job elsewhere. I can't understand why economists like David Kelly are unable to understand this as he demonstrated in the February 6, 2023 episode of Notes on the Week Ahead . More here on the quit rate.…

1
Mike Wilson on fear of missing out 3:43

2 years 전3:43

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

3:43

Nobody can see the future, but when it comes to investing and trading, it's always a good idea to practice keeping one's cool. Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson appeared on the January 30, 2023 episode of Thoughts on the Market .

1
James K. Galbraith on the answer to the debt-ceiling standoff 8:33

2 years 전8:33

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

8:33

You know the country is in trouble when raising the debt limit involves phrases such as "intransigent minority," having to invoke the Constitution, floating ideas such as having the U.S. Treasury "prioritize" payments instead of paying all bills and pretending that's not a default. James Galbraith appeared on KPFA Letters and Politics on January 24, 2023 .…

1
America's demographic bust compounded by the "missing millions" 15:21

2 years 전15:21

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

15:21

Bloomberg reporters Shawn Donnan and Ben Steverman, along with economist Melissa Kearney and host Stephanie Flanders discuss the demographic crisis impacting the economy right now in the January 26, 2023 episode of Stephanomics .

1
Joe Weisenthal on the debt limit and default 5:33

2 years 전5:33

나중에 재생

나중에 재생

5:33

Our favorite Bloomberg journalist and podcaster appeared on Spectator Magazine's Americano podcast on Thursday, January 26, 2023.

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