A weekly discussion on developments in the financial markets, and what they mean for governments, investors and tax payers. Hosted by Jonathan Davis and Peter Seilern.
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Summary Peter and Jonathan take stock of the financial markets after the Federal Reserve raises interest rates yet again and debate the possible impact of artificial intelligence in the short and longer term. 00:32 - Nearing the end of the rate hike cycle? 02:54 - Indicators of a soft landing 06:43 - Increasing optimism 08:12 - The bond market in a…
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Summary As central banks wrestle with the "trilemma" of balancing the risks of inflation, recession and financial stability, Jonathan and Peter debate whether the bond market is giving us an accurate taste of what is to come. 00:32 - The first six months of the year 03:33 - Pundits predicting the market 10:25 - Getting inflation wrong 15:53 - Bond …
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Summary The collapse of Odey Asset Management, a high profile London hedge fund business, following allegations about the behaviour of its founder Crispin Odey, raises a number of important questions - about the management of private firms, the treatment of women in the workplace and the role of the media and regulator in financial services. Peter …
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Summary We return to the issue of Brexit - what impact has it had on the UK and the EU, both economically and politically? We compare our different perspectives, one UK-based, the other Eurocentric. 00:32 - Welcome back 06:32 - UK and European cultural differences 10:58 - Trends in the UK since Brexit 16:53 - The need for reform in the UK's politic…
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Summary In our latest edition Peter and Jonathan discuss the likely impact on the bond market of tighter credit conditions and the potential failure of Congress and the Biden administration to agree to an increase in the Federal debt ceiling in the United States. Are these issues in the price already? 00:32 - Welcome back 01:19 - Credit conditions …
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Summary In the latest episode Peter and Jonathan, quoting Warren Buffett liberally, take a look at the dynamics of the fund management business, the factors that make for a successful long term relationship between investors and the stewards of their money and the reasons why in a sales-driven industry mutual happiness is only achieved by a minorit…
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Central Banks Versus Bond Markets: The Clash Continues
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Summary Equity and bond markets have stabilised after the banking tremors we saw in March, but bond investors remain convinced that inflation and future interest rates will come back down to earth more quickly than many vocal market pundits think. Peter and Jonathan are not entirely agreed on how this will all play out and continue their debate on …
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Summary The authorities may have averted a new global banking crisis for now by their handling of Silicon Valley Bank and the rushed shotgun marriage that handed Credit Suisse to fellow Swiss bank UBS, but there will be plenty of ramifications for the financial markets to absorb. In their latest podcast, now appearing fortnightly, Peter Seilern and…
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Join Jonathan and Peter as they discuss the collapse of SVB and what this means for the global banking sector.
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Peter and Jonathan discuss the current US bond markets.
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Jonathan and Peter discuss recent geopolitical events and their impact on the markets.
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Jonathan and Peter discuss markets.
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Peter and Jonathan discuss the attitude of the central banks at this time..
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Peter and Jonathan discuss the market response to this week's current affairs.
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Peter and Jonathan discuss current events and their repercussions on the markets.
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Jonathan and Peter discuss the impact of the war on current markets.
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Join Peter and Jonathan for another discussion on global current events.
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Join Peter and Jonathan as they discuss recent developments and alternative perspectives on the events in Ukraine.
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Peter and Jonathan discuss the situation in Ukraine as it continues to unfold..
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Who is more influential over financial markets: Vladimir Putin or Jay Powell?
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Join Peter and Jonathan as they continue to discuss the influence of Vladimir Putin on the financial markets.
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Jonathan Davis and Peter Seilern discuss Putin and Russia and offer some interesting perspectives on both.
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Peter and Jonathan discuss the nuances of growth in the markets at this time.
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Peter and Jonathan discuss confusing trends in the financial markets.
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Jonathan and Peter return for a third series, starting with a discussion on what influence, if any, politics at the national level and geopolitics at the world level have on financial markets.
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Esteemed Hollywood actor, author, director and film-maker, Rupert Everett, joins Jonathan and Peter in a revealing and intimate conversation about life on and off the camera.
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Jonathan and Peter explore the landscape of how politicians leverage "truth" in politics today..
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The bicentenary of Napoleon Bonaparte’s death. Was he a hero or a villain?
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Peter and Jonathan bring new angles and elements to this discussion of a fascinating historical figure.
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A new, post-pandemic consensus in financial markets” Is it right or wrong?
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Jonathan and Peter discuss the markets post pandemic..
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Jonathan and Peter consider the implications of this statement in the context of the film and the wider world: “The press is to serve the governed, not the governors” (US Supreme Court).
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Jonathan and Peter discuss the “The Lives of Others” (Das Leben der Anderen), the Oscar winning film by Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck.
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Author's Review of 'Our Shrunken World' by Otto von Habsburg
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Jonathan and Peter discuss the ongoing relevance of this work as pertains to Europe and the wider issues playing out today.
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Jonathan and Peter dive deep into this seminal work.
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The Rotation Phenomenon: How This Is Manifesting in the Markets
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A look at how events in the USA since November have catalysed a style rotation in the markets worldwide.
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Jonathan and Peter discuss the earliest days of a post Brexit New Year and how this might impact both sides… A balanced and thoughtful discussion looking at different perspectives.
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How prices can diverge from value How many operators were wrong-footed Expect the unexpected
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The best The worst Why
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Origins of World War 1 Aftermath of Word War 2
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Different interpretations of value investing. Will value investing come back into fashion?
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Who is right? The media, the economy or the stock markets? As lockdowns are relaxed, consumers resume spending...
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Episode 10: US social unrest and an improving US economy
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- Violence in the streets has no effect on financial markets. How come? - Massive new jobs unexpectedly created in US.
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It looks like no deal...
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Sentiment change in the markets Fear of missing out
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Episode 08: Why is the Dollar So Strong, Inching Towards Ever Closer Union Within The EU
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Safe haven status International liquidity squeeze Franco-German recovery fund Frugal Four Fighback
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Episode 07: Stock market update and Negative Interest Rates
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A dead cat bounce A new bull market The risk of negative interest rates
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Interest rates to stay lower for longer Conventional monetary policy ineffective The supply demand struggle
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Episode 05: "Shell’s Dividend Cut and Corporate Bond Markets"
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Shell’s Dividend Cut Oil price collapses by 70% year to date. Oil majors’ promises to shareholders impossible to keep. Dividend cover falls relentlessly. Corporate Bond Markets From death to resurrection Central banks do whatever it takes… ...including buying junk bonds.
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Episode 04: Investment Trusts and Sector Performance Analysis
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1. Investment Trusts: How they differ from conventional open-ended funds. Why they have enjoyed better performances this year. Where is the downside? 2. Sector performance comparisons year-to-date: Healthcare and consumer staples lessen the pain. Financials and energy stocks have been the worst hit. Can unloved share prices rebound?…
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"Corona Bonds" in Europe? Why the doomsters are wrong. Don’t fight the Fed. Company earnings and valuations.
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Markets rally at fastest weekly rate since 1974. Will the health scare or markets prevail? Is it a dead cat bounce? Economic forecasters could not be gloomier. Should governments interfere on dividends?
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Two months ago we never had it so good. It can’t last, said the experts. Suddenly, there were three Black Swans. Central banks flood the markets. But who will foot the bill?
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