Episode 169 - Market sends mixed signals | Patrick De Haan with GasBuddy

Energy Week

Connect with our guest: https://twitter.com/GasBuddyGuy
Oil steadies as Hurricane Ida weakens, OPEC+ in focus
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-hurricane-ida-pounds-us-crude-patch-louisiana-2021-08-30/
Louisiana refineries slammed by Hurricane Ida
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2248918-louisiana-refineries-slammed-by-hurricane-ida
Colonial Pipeline expects to resume service after assessing Ida’s impact
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/29/colonial-pipeline-halts-gasoline-deliveries-to-the-us-east-coast-due-to-hurricane-ida.html
- As far as hurricanes go, not as much damage to oil infrastructure and refining as we have seen in the past
- Refining issues could persist due to power outages and lack of feedstock
- Unclear when any of that can restart given the fact that Louisiana is experiencing severe power outages and many refineries may have to contend with flooding conditions which can keep them offline for quite awhile and can cause damage.
- Gasoline prices are up 2% in anticipation, although the storm comes right as summer demand for gasoline is starting to wane.
- Some good news from ExxonMobil's Baton Rouge refinery - reported no significant damage from the hurricane. But they are still shutting down units and flaring gas. Once they have access to necessary feedstocks and support from third-party utilities they expect to return to normal production.
OPEC+ faces mixed market signals after US pressure to increase oil supplies
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/082721-opec-faces-mixed-market-signals-after-us-pressure-to-increase-oil-supplies
OPEC+ could reconsider output increase, says Kuwaiti oil minister
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-could-reconsider-output-increase-says-kuwaiti-oil-minister-2021-08-29/
- Unlikely for OPEC to change its plans to increase oil production by 400,000 bpd
- Kuwait suggested this might be possible, but unlikely given that Brent is still above $70
Climate Change to Be Treated as Public-Health Issue
https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-to-be-treated-as-public-health-issue-11630315800
- plan to reduce GHG emissions from the healthcare system??
Interview with GasBuddyGuy Patrick DeHaan:
- tremendous recovery with gasoline demand this summer
- driving season remained resilient despite Delta variant
- demand starting to slip as driving season coming to an end
- EIA implied demand last week 9.7 million bpd, GasBuddy slightly lower 9.3 million bpd
- News about Covid cases surging hasn't impacted gasoline consumption distribution
- Power outages from Hurricane Ida are very extensive, refining down due to power outages and no RVP wavers given out by EPA. Would allow refiners to distribute fall gasoline early (before Sept 15).
- Bottlenecks due to Ida at various levels will persist for days or longer. Refineries need power, nitrogen, oxygen, etc. We could see sizable inventory draws in PADD3
- Could see crude oil inventories rising due to refineries offline.
- Colonial temporarily shut down 2 lines, could squeeze PADD1 inventories
- Gasoline from Great Lakes may go south or east to make up for losses there.
- Even before storm well formed, inbound gasoline deliveries to PADD1 seen and will continue now that Louisiana refineries offline.
- Products and blending components may be diverted to areas in the US
- Expect to see abnormal numbers in EIA data for weeks, 3 or 4 weeks but contingent on how long it takes refineries to start churning out products again.
- Will also depend on how long it takes for products to start flowing through pipelines
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