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좋아요DANMMMMM…Have I got a show for you! First, a lot of Sister Wives tea - new rumors have surfaced Janelle Brown is leaving the show. Plus, Gabe Brown gives a life update after losing and tragically finding his brother Garrison dead. Sadly, Garrison took his own life in March 2024. Then we head over to discuss the new Welcome To Plathville tea. The first pictures of Micah Plath have surfaced after being beat up by his brother Issac and it doesn’t look good for the future of his modeling career. Lastly, we discuss the latest in the Justin Baldoni v Blake Lively case, Justin is back on social media and it was the perfect social media return. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Open and new Sister Wives news 00:05:43 - Janelle Brown leaving the show? Sister Wives Closet is officially closed 00:12:45 - A new pic of Micah Plath’s broken nose has surfaced 00:18:18 - Justin Baldoni back on social media and Taylor Swifts team is pissed at Justin Baldoni MY Go Big Podcasting Courses Are Here! Purchase Go Big Podcasting and learn to start, monetize, and grow your own podcast. USE CODE: MOM15 for 15% OFF (code expires May 11th, 2025) **SHOP my Amazon Marketplace - especially if you're looking to get geared-up to start your own Podcast!!!** https://www.amazon.com/shop/thesarahfrasershow Show is sponsored by: Download Cash App & sign up! Use our exclusive referral code TSFS in your profile, send $5 to a friend within 14 days, and you’ll get $10 dropped right into your account. Terms apply Horizonfibroids.com get rid of those nasty fibroids Gopurebeauty.com science backed skincare from head to toe, use code TSFS at checkout for 25% OFF your order Nutrafol.com use code TSFS for FREE shipping and $10 off your subscription Rula.com/tsfs to get started today. That’s R-U-L-A dot com slash tsfs for convenient therapy that’s covered by insurance. SkylightCal.com/tsfs for $30 OFF your 15 inch calendar Quince.com/tsfs for FREE shipping on your order and 365 day returns Warbyparker.com/tsfs make an appointment at one of their 270 store locations and head to the website to try on endless pairs of glasses virtually and buy your perfect pair Follow me on Instagram/Tiktok: @thesarahfrasershow ***Visit our Sub-Reddit: reddit.com/r/thesarahfrasershow for ALL things The Sarah Fraser Show!!!*** Advertise on The Sarah Fraser Show: thesarahfrasershow@gmail.com Got a juicy gossip TIP from your favorite TLC or Bravo show? Email: thesarahfrasershow@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices…
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WEEKLY MONETARY, ECONOMIC, GEOPOLITICAL NEWS AND EVENTS
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In this week’s Golden Rule Radio, we unpack gold’s recent correction and explain why it might be healthy for the long-term trend. We look at what’s driving the dollar’s bounce, how CPI surprised markets, and why central banks — not retail investors — are still the biggest force behind gold’s rise. Plus: silver’s price action, key technical levels, and what policy shifts could mean for precious metals next.…
Chinese Admitted To Bessent, They Knew Biden Was Weak "Strong Dollar" Policy Being Reversed By Trump Administration Dollar Recycling Shifting To Gold Recycling "Gold has been interesting. For the month of April, 70 tons, roughly 7.4 billion in gold, was purchased via ETFs in China. That's double the previous month's record. I think tariff uncertainty added to buying, but what's interesting is the global share of ETF buying in China moved higher, from 3% of the global total to 6%. In the month of April, Chinese demand in that four-week period accounted for half of global ETF inflows." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, it's so funny how we talked last week about how different news outlets will say things differently, but behind closed doors, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just revealed that the Chinese told him behind closed doors that they ignored their trade commitments under Biden because they knew he was weak. Huh. I guess nobody else did, but yeah. They just admitted that. David: All of my kids have, at one time or another, sat by a light switch on the wall, entertaining themselves by flipping it on, and then off, and then on again until I tell them to stop. Right? Kevin: You know why they do that, don't you? They want your attention. David: Maybe. I mean, tariffs are feeling a little like that now. Kevin: Oh. Yeah. David: Is it the fascination with pulsating waves of energy that fill the room with light, or is it the momentary darkness where ambiguity and the unknown stir a variety of concerns? Kevin: So I've got a question for you, though, because Trump has cut his teeth, basically, building casinos and working in an arena where you probably have to put up with some mob bosses. Okay? Does what works in business, does that work in international relations? David: That was a question that Joseph Nye asked in a Financial Times article just a few weeks ago, and I was thinking about his passing this last week. He served under two presidential administrations, strongly promoted US-Japanese relations, best known for his ideas of soft power influence and complex interdependence. It is worth asking the question. What works in business may or may not work in international relations. So his first big idea, soft power, getting what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payment, that's a little like social capital, street credibility, at least a few of my kids would say rizz. That's the word of the moment, short for charisma. The allure of the American dream, better opportunities, they draw immigrants from around the world. Back in the 1990s, Levi's jeans in Moscow were the American stuff people had to have. I mean, I know a guy that flew plane loads full of denim from here to there. Kevin, you know him, too. You used to fly with him. Kevin: That's right. Yeah. He was moving stuff into Russia. David: Yeah. Communism had a grip on the mind of Russians, but America was gaining a grip on the Russian heart. Maybe it was American materialism to be more precise, but we had this sort of street credibility. We had this— Even if you think about the American dream, we have an immigration problem. China doesn't have an immigration problem. Russia doesn't have an immigration problem. Who wants to be in those places? Kevin: Who wants to move in? But I think about that. So Nye talks about soft power, and it reminds me of Otto von Bismarck back in the 1870s. He was a brilliant guy who realized that if you could put together a lot of different agreements, complex agreements, you could have peace and prosperity for a long time. The problem is, Otto von Bismarck died, and it led to World War I. Okay? When things start falling apart, that's where that international relations thing, if you're using soft power, it better work for everyone, not just the guy who put it together. David: Well,…
This week gold rose up slightly, while silver took a small dip. Palladium and platinum are neck and neck. Meanwhile, the dollar index made a slight recovery despite a quiet Fed announcement. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, May 7: The price of gold is up about 2.5%, sitting at $3,367 as of this recording. Intraweek, gold was up as high as $3,440. The price of silver is down about 2.3% over the last week at $32.27. Platinum is up about 1% at $965 from a week earlier. Palladium is up 3% on the week, even with platinum at $965. Moving over to the paper markets… And the S&P 500 is flat from a week earlier, sitting at 5,630. The dollar index is up 0.25% on the week, currently sitting just below 100 at 99.50. Supply chain disruptions, declining trade activity, and mounting U.S. debt fuel the rising demand for tangible assets. Fed’s “Wait and See” Stance While the Fed didn’t announce any dramatic policy changes at its latest meeting, its posture of “wait and see” is itself influencing markets. The Fed is caught between conflicting data: rising risks of unemployment and inflation, complicated by new tariffs and global trade disruptions. The looming elephant in the room is the U.S. debt refinancing. With trillions in Treasury debt set to be refinanced at higher interest rates, the fiscal outlook is concerning. Higher rates on a massive debt load puts further pressure on the Fed’s policy options. And while the S&P 500 remains buoyant, much of the market’s strength is concentrated in a handful of mega-cap stocks, with underlying sectors like transportation showing signs of weakness. The Dollar Index Watch After peaking at over 110 in January, the US dollar index dropped sharply-down 12–13% in just a couple of months, bottoming at 98 in April. While there’s been a slight rebound, this kind of volatility in the world’s largest financial asset is significant. The dollar is valued against other major currencies, so its decline reflects not just domestic issues, but global shifts in confidence and capital flows. Despite concerns about a dollar “crash,” the dollar will likely remain relatively stable compared to other currencies, simply because all fiat currencies are facing similar pressures. However, the rapid decline and ongoing volatility are warning signs of underlying stress in the system. This makes gold’s role as a store of value even more relevant, especially as the dollar’s purchasing power erodes. Gold in Demand Worldwide Central banks are boosting their gold reserves, moving from under 10% of reserves in precious metals to 20–25% and still climbing. This trend signals a loss of faith in the global financial system by its very stewards, making gold a hedge not just for individuals, but for entire nations. People buy gold for different reasons — including building a legacy, wealth preservation, or as insurance against systemic risk. Gold is resilient. It never goes to zero, unlike fiat currencies which can lose value through inflation or policy missteps. Gold is not just about return on investment, but the security of the investment itself. In uncertain times, that “return of your investment” becomes paramount. Get in Touch for Expert Guidance Now is the perfect time to evaluate your precious metals strategy. The McAlvany Precious Metals advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
Gold's Rise Since 2008 Has Been A Policy Choice Of Central Banks David Rosenberg Sees $6k Gold In 3-5 Years Attached Charts: Gold Price VS Central Bank Buying Since the 2008 financial crisis, central banks have been net buyers of gold at an accelerating pace. As shown in the charts, the correlation between central bank gold accumulation (top) and the rise in gold prices (bottom) is unmistakable—suggesting that gold's upward trajectory isn't just market-driven, but a direct result of policy decisions by monetary authorities around the world. "In a bear market, there's no straight line from overvaluation to undervaluation. It's a process, and this happens over and over again, all the way down. Believing the worst is behind them, believing that a bottom is in with each successive wave of optimism suggested by the price action higher, but the counter-trend moves tend to be short and sharp in the opposite direction from that secular trend. For the secular bear, the counter-trend moves up are powerful. It drives positive energy. It drives the fear of missing out. Maybe we put in the lows and you've got to get in now. At the same time, you're drawing in those new investors with a hope that the market is in the early stage of a new bull trend. That is, in my view, precisely where we are today." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, we're coming out of our meeting, and I'm like, "Oh my gosh." We've got to talk about a couple of the things that you brought up in the meeting and Morgan brought up in the meeting, but I'm just going to throw this out right off the bat. You said central banks have an unstoppable appetite for gold. Tell me about that. David: Well, you see these things through a different lens, and it's not a common lens that we are used to. We see timing decisions, we see price opportunities. You want to buy low and sell high, and the appetite for gold by central banks is a policy choice. It is a political decision to diversify away from dollars, away from Treasuries, and move towards having a higher percentage allocation to gold. And if you look back over the last 50 years, we are still a fraction of what central bank holdings used to be. We could see gold holdings increase an additional four- to fivefold just to match where we were in the '70s and '80s. So very unpopular through the '80s and '90s to own gold. We moved towards financial assets, reserve asset managers did. But that trend changed pretty dramatically in the year 2009, and it's been the primary driver of the gold market to date. It also explains why there's a number of items that have been left behind, so to say, because the retail investor who is making a decision based on timing, based on preferences for other risk assets, has yet to enter the market. So we think of junk silver trading at no premiums. We think of the pre-1933 US $20 gold pieces, no premiums. We think of gold mining shares, trading at discounts in some instances still at a discount to their net asset value. It is not a space that is overcrowded. It is not a space that has attracted hardly any interest at all. And so it's just a different calculus. The retail investor is looking through one particular lens, and it's not that of a policy choice. But that's why we've seen such a significant shift from 2009 to the present. Central banks flipped the switch and decided they wanted to increase reserves in gold again. Kevin: Morgan Lewis showed us two charts, and I have to say, Dave, after doing this 38 years, the correlation between those two charts was one of the most profound correlations I've ever seen. And what it shows is the price of gold from 2008 til now and central bank buying from 2008 until now, when they started to become net buyers, not net sellers of gold. And you had asked the group here at McAlvany Precious Metals, you said,…
This week gold and silver took a small decline. Gold is still up 5% over April, holding strong in the long-term trend. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of Wednesday, April 30: The price of gold is down about 1.2%, sitting at $3,290 as of this recording. But it is up 5% on the month. The price of silver is down about 2.3% over the last week, but it is still well over 30 bucks at $32.27. Silver went down about 3% in the month of April. Platinum is down about 0.5% at $955 from a week earlier. Palladium is dead even on the week, still at $935, and it’s about $20 below platinum. Moving over to the paper markets… And the S&P 500 is up 3.5% this week to 5,570, and it is actually pretty even on the month. The dollar index is dead even on the week, currently sitting just below 100 at 99.50. The dollar index saw a decrease of 4.5% over the month of April. Sentiment Declines Consumer sentiment has dropped 8% month over month. It is currently at 52, which is down 32% year over year, primarily driven by worry over rising prices and tariff volatility. The airline industry is declaring a recession as share prices of major airlines are down 44% and fewer people are booking pleasure flights. Job Openings Declines The US job openings report jolted the markets this week. According to the report, there were 7.192 million job openings, but 7.5 million job openings were expected. This showed a tightening of the labor market, with 7.6 million job openings reported the month before. But most of this could be sentiment driven, due to inflationary concerns. There has been no official declaration of a recession. Borrowing Estimate Drops According to the US Department of the Treasury, the current estimate of privately-held net market borrowing for the second quarter dropped significantly. Excluding the lower-than-assumed beginning of the quarterly cash balance, the current quarterly balance is $53 billion less than announced in February. This is the first sign of reality of a decrease in expectations of debt spending, deficit spending. The belt tightening has begun. All eyes remain on gold and its continued high demand. Plan Your Metals Strategy How many ounces of gold and other precious metals should you add to your portfolio? The McAlvany advisor team is here to help guide you. With decades of experience in precious metals investing, they are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556…
This week, we’re joined by Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management. Keith is a former hedge fund manager and a leading voice on building data-driven investment processes that take emotion out of decision making. In this conversation, we discuss: How top hedge fund managers approach risk and opportunity Thinking about money through a "four quadrants" framework Common mistakes investors make when emotions drive their choices Special Offer: Hedgeye is offering McAlvany listeners a free, no-strings-attached month of access to some of their top research tools through the Elite Macro bundle. No credit card required. Learn more and sign up here: hedgeye.com/mcalvany Thanks for listening! "What the companies couldn't tell you was when GDP growth was going to slow and/or inflation was going to slow at the same time, or if inflation was going to accelerate and we end up with stagflation because growth is slowing in the face of inflation, accelerating too quickly. So I kept asking myself, why the hell these guys don't know how to answer this question? And then I understood why, because they don't have a process for them. So that's where I came to the quads. Quads—so substitute for revenue growth, pod one, I substituted the rate of change of real GDP growth for countries, and for pod two, cash flows, I inserted inflation, the rate of change of year over year inflation." —Keith McCullough * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Our guest today, Dave, basically tries to look at the world the way it is, not the way he wishes it to be. David: Keith McCullough joins us from Hedgeye where he's the CEO, and investors have had the opportunity to ride a roller coaster of volatility in recent weeks. From Truth Social posts to unending economic statistics and the occasional Fed official taking the mic. There are new and unpredictable inputs for investors to consider, which makes a standard efficient market hypothesis application of collective wisdom hard to benefit from. We've often explored our frameworks and indicators for credit markets and liquidity dynamics which directly affect the financial markets. We have our own processes and frameworks and disciplines, and we're constantly exploring complementary frameworks like the social and political analysis we frequently refer to from a return guest on the commentary, Neil Howe. His fourth turning framework has for many years provided an interpretive lens for generational change and volatility of a non-financial nature. So we have models, we have frameworks, we have interpretive grids. None are perfect, some are incredibly helpful—some more so than others. That's my introduction to today's conversation with Keith McCullough, CEO at Hedgeye. Imagine my surprise to learn that Neil Howe and Keith have worked together for years. Not a surprise. Another aha moment was learning that Hedgeye cartoonist Bob Rich is a part of Keith's team. I've been laughing at Bob's daily cartoons for the better part of a decade, not knowing the organization he was a part of. I mean, yeah, every one of them says Hedgeye on it. It's probably a measure of density that I didn't connect the wit and wisdom from Bob to Keith's group. It's a little like Gary Larson got an MBA, became a professional trader, and then with gallows humor peeled back the Wall Street layers of opacity. So whether it's the cartoons or Keith's approach to risk management, I keep saying to myself, that is so good. So today, we'll get to know the organization a lot better, why we have so much compatibility. We'll cover that as we go, and of course we'll look at the subscription services that Keith offers, which are invaluable for the investor rolling up their sleeves on a daily basis. We'll cover that as well. All right, Keith, let's get started. We need backstory to appreciate what you do and why you do it.…
Gold reached a new all-time high, finally hitting $3,500 as predicted. Silver gained ground, recovering from recent losses, while other metals remained flat. Let’s take a look at where the prices of precious metals stand as of Wednesday, April 23: The price of gold is up around 2% as of this recording. Intraweek, gold rose up 8% to touch $3,500, and had a 17% total increase since April 8. The price of silver is up 4.09% to $33.60, recovering most of what it lost following the post-tariff dropoff. The price of platinum is up 1% to $964 as of recording — that’s mostly flat week over week. The price of palladium is down 3% to $934, a little bit of a switch from the one-to-one race that it has been in with platinum. Moving over to the paper markets… The S&P 500 is up only 0.7% to 5,371, moving sideways week over week. The dollar index is flat around $100 as of recording this week. This is after it was down about 2% intraweek, which is a significant drop. Seasonal Moves in Gold It is well known among precious metals experts that gold is more popular in certain seasons — and spring is one of them. So it’s no surprise that the price of gold is on the rise this month. But what’s unusual is the rapid, short-term rise that we’ve seen in the price of gold. Since the 2024 election, the price of gold has shot up $1,000. And since it hit a bottom at $1,625 in November 2022, it has more than doubled its price in just 2.5 years. Looking forward, summer is usually a time when gold will pull back a bit. Since gold had such a strong run up this spring, we suspect that there will be a small retracement in the near future. The first pullback we might see would be somewhere around the previous top of $3,150 prior to the exaggerated push up. And then the secondary pull back could be more along the 6 18 short term fib that lines up with other levels as well as being resistance and support — which is right around $2,940. Those are two really good stair steps. Ratio Trade Opportunity Because gold had that brief melt up, it drove up the gold to silver ratio to 105 to one. This is just one of three times in our lifetimes that we’ve seen the ratio pop over 100. The first one was in the early 1990s and the second time was during the 2020 pandemic. This brief pop up was a great opportunity to move some gold into silver if you were able to take advantage of it in time. But don’t feel like you missed out on trading some gold for silver on this brief high. Any gold to silver ratio number that’s in the high nineties is still favoring silver, and there’s a good chance that could happen again in the near term. Get Started Today Now is a great time to discover how precious metals can support your investment goals. One of our McAlvany financial advisors will happily speak with you about your personal objectives and show you how to start adding ounces to your portfolio. Just give the team a call at (800) 525-9556 to get a complimentary portfolio review.…
Outflows Out Of U.S. Assets Going Into Gold Goldman Sachs Increases Gold Price Prediction China Increases Gold Imports On High "So this is why I would say equities are a sideshow, the weakness in equities, the current compression across the indices. Relative to the bond market and currency market, that's what it is. It's a sideshow. The dollar's year-to-date decline versus the euro is only 9.2%. The US Treasury market, if you're looking at the 20-year Treasury, only lower by 2% year-to-date. These markets are actually where the real concern lies. And it's not because it's bigger numbers, but it's because it's a much bigger market." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to The McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David each morning I walk outside and I look at the mountains, and I eat my oatmeal, just stand and think. And as I was doing that I started to think about what's going on with the dollar right now, and the possibility of worldwide inflation, high inflation, I don't want to say necessarily hyperinflation, but I was thinking what does it look like when the world's reserve currency starts to melt down? David: We've referenced Stephen Miran's paper, which he wrote back in November of last year. I think we even put it in the show notes a number of weeks ago. And it's important to see the game plan that is feeding the Trump administration's idea of reindustrialization. Implicit to the paper is devaluation of the dollar. There's no concern with that. It's an objective which is clear. They're comfortable with it, but it does have implications for overseas investors. It does have implications for US investors with dollar assets. Kevin: The other day I was talking to my wife and I said gold topping $3,500 an ounce at one point here in the last few hours, that basically is saying what is going to happen to the prices of everything else. Gold is signaling something. Last night, Dave, when we sat and had our Talisker, it's getting pretty expensive to sit and have our Talisker, it used to be more affordable. But I'm thinking that gold is signaling the increase of our Monday nights. David: That's right. That's right. Kevin: Yeah. So gold is signaling the increase in our Talisker on Monday nights. But the volatility right now, for so long we were falling asleep with the VIX, the volatility index, that's not the case now. David: No, and some would even ask: the equity volatility, is that important, is that something of a sideshow? And we would say, in fact it is a sideshow, but we'll work towards that conclusion. Investors are in a volatility meat grinder again. They've got to contemplate the upside of risk assets, and perhaps they're reconsidering what downside looks like as well. From one Truth Social post to the next, markets are subject to surprise after surprise after surprise. So what is a healthy correction? What is a full-blown bear market? And to what degree do tariff uncertainties shape the global investor’s motivation to own US assets, US denominated assets of any kind? It's this question: to stay or go? Double-digit declines in the largest stock indices are commonplace. It's the Russell 2000, the Dow transports, NASDAQ, high-flying sectors like semiconductors, off 23%; the Mag-7 on an equal weighted basis, now off over 25% year to date. And of course, if you're looking for a little bit more fun and entertainment, the five times Mag-7 ETF is off 89% year to date, 92% from its all-time highs in December of last year. So the gods of the marketplace give and take away. Leverage is a force multiplier, and there's a lot of it spread across asset classes. Kevin: You and I both ride mountain bikes. My son just rebuilt the shock on the rear part of the bike. When we lose our shock absorption, we really feel the bumps. And if you think about it, the Federal Reserve and just the policy up to this point has been like a shock absorber,…
Gold sees a massive surge this week, climbing all the way up to $3,343. Silver also saw a 5% rise to $32.70, while platinum and palladium saw some modest gains. Alongside the US dollar’s weakened performance and high global demand for gold, the momentum behind gold continues to grow and the likelihood of higher prices increases. Thanks for listening. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on Wednesday, April 16: The price of gold is up 8% to $3338, after its massive surge over the past week. The price of silver is up 5.5% to $32.70, starting to look healthier after a big dropoff last week. The price of platinum is up 4.6% to $960 as of recording. Platinum seems hard stuck between about $950 and $1,000 and continues to remain there. The price of palladium is up 7% to $972, surpassing platinum by a small amount in their neck-and-neck race. Metals Momentum On Tuesday, India announced that they want to use a trade surplus to buy gold, silver, and oil from the United States, and that caused a moonshot for gold in the early morning hours. President Trump is trying to initiate an industrial revolution, and that's when we expect to see platinum finally break north of $1,000 per ounce. So keep an eye on these industrial metals. It is still early in the game. Dollar vs Gold When you’re a gold investor, it’s hard to remember how you used to think about investing before you purchased precious metals. But many investors find an asset like gold to be out of their comfort zone. They’re used to looking at how the stock market performs and how many dollars they have in the bank. Gold is an allocation. It can be seen as insurance for the rest of your money or an allocation as capital to preserve your purchasing power as the dollar gets eroded by inflation. And there’s no better illustration of gold’s power than looking at this chart showing the purchasing power of the dollar over the last 100 years: As you can see, the price of gold is the mirror image or the inverse relationship of this US dollar purchasing power. Ratio Trade Opportunity The gold-to-silver ratio hit a rare high of 101, indicating a rare chance for silver investors to take advantage of. The gold to silver ratio has fluctuated between 99 and 101 for weeks. This week, the ratio is back to 101 today. The last time we saw a significant shift in the gold to silver ratio was at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. And because there is still little western demand for gold and silver right now, premiums are very low. So if you’ve been thinking about making a ratio trade, now is the time to get in touch with your McAlvany Precious Metals advisor. Add Gold Ounces Today Call us at (800) 525-9556 so we can speak with you individually and walk through your own portfolio. Our team of experts can help you understand the whys and the hows with acquiring gold.…
Decades of Inflationism Home to Roost MWM Q1 2025 Tactical Short Conference Call April 17, 2024 David: All right, let's begin. Good afternoon. We are going to start the call today with performance, look at market insights, and then have Q&A as our finale. This is for first quarter 2025, conference call for Tactical Short, “Decades of Inflationism Home to Roost.” We're looking forward to the questions that have been reserved for the end of the call, and I'm grateful for each of them, both the level of engagement and the depth of curiosity. We're also excited to share insights and perspectives with you today, and I would just encourage you to engage broadly. You need not agree with every point in order to benefit from the totality of insights. We are in a fast changing world, and we continue to adjust our thinking to the circumstances that emerge. [Unclear] a routine look at our thinking. I would encourage you to always engage on a Saturday with Credit Bubble Bulletin, which Doug's been writing for a long, long time. And it is the best chronicling of how we arrived at this point in time. It gives you a comprehensive look at credit markets and the influence that they have within the broader financial markets. I would also encourage you to engage with a piece that we put out also on Saturdays called Hard Asset Insights, perspective on the markets from one of our colleagues, as well as my podcast on Wednesdays now and it's 18th year. A good way for you to keep up with our thinking on other macro issues that relate ultimately to your financial decision making. So again, thank you for participating in our first quarter 2025 recap conference call. As always, thank you to our valued account holders. We so greatly value our client relationships. With first time listeners on today's call, I'll begin with some general information for those who are unfamiliar with Tactical Short, and of course you can find more detailed information available at mwealthm.com/tacticalshort. The objective. The objective of Tactical Short is to provide a professionally managed product that reduces overall risk in a client's total investment portfolio, while also providing downside protection in a global market backdrop with extraordinary uncertainty and extreme risk. The strategy is designed for separately managed accounts. Separately managed accounts allow for a very investor friendly, full transparency, flexibility, reasonable fees, no lockups, it's perfect for providing all of those things. We have the flexibility to short stocks and ETFs, and our plan has been, on occasion, to buy liquid listed put options as well. Shorting entails a unique set of risks. This is where we are set apart from our competitors, by our analytical framework and our uncompromising focus on identifying and managing risk. Our Tactical Short strategy in the quarter with short exposure targeted at 80%. The target was boosted 200 basis points to 82% in early March, the highest in the history of the strategy. Focused on the challenging backdrop for managing short exposure, a short in the S&P 500 ETF, the SPY, remained the default position for what we regard as a very high risk environment. Giving an update on performance, Tactical Short accounts after fees returned 4.06% during Q1. The S&P 500 returned a negative 4.28%, so for the quarter Tactical Short accounts returned 95% of the S&P 500's negative return. As for one year performance, Tactical Short after fees returned a negative 5.14 versus the 8.23 return for the S&P 500, losing 62% of the S&P's positive return. We regularly track Tactical Short performance versus three actively managed short fund competitors. First, the Grizzly Short Fund, which returned 5.16% during Q1, and over the past year Grizzly has returned a negative 0.52, a half a percent. Ranger Equity Bear returned 9%, 9.06 for the quarter, with a negative 1.89 for the one-year return. And Federated Prudent Bear returned 5.631,…
This Week’s Guest: George FriedmanGeorge Friedman is one of the most respected voices in geopolitical strategy today. As the founder of both Stratfor and Geopolitical Futures, his work has shaped how analysts and leaders understand the long-term forces driving global events. With decades of experience forecasting international conflicts, economic trends, and national realignments, Friedman brings deep historical insight to the current moment. About His Book – The Storm Before the CalmIn The Storm Before the Calm, Friedman lays out a compelling case that America’s current turmoil is part of a larger, predictable pattern. He identifies two ongoing cycles in U.S. history—an 80-year institutional cycle and a 50-year socio-economic cycle—that are converging in the 2020s. According to Friedman, periods of instability like this one are not signs of collapse, but of renewal. The book explores how these internal shifts, while painful, ultimately lead to reinvention and long-term resilience. Special Offer for Our AudienceGeorge and his team are offering our listeners an exclusive opportunity to subscribe to Geopolitical Futures, his platform for in-depth geopolitical analysis. Subscribers get access to forecasts, strategic briefings, and special reports from one of the most experienced teams in the business.Sign up here: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/subscribe/?utm_source=macalvany In This Episode: Why the United States Always Reinvents Itself George Friedman on the core ideas behind The Storm Before the Calm How to understand the current crisis through the lens of historical cycles What a “new model” of the world might look like Where George sees the U.S. headed after this period of upheaval This conversation offers rare clarity in a noisy time. If you're looking for perspective that goes deeper than headlines and polling data, don't miss this one. Also, Click Here to register for the Tactical Short 1st Quarter 2025 Recap call, this Thursday - “Decades of Inflationism Home to Roost” “The United States realized that the foundation of its previous era, the Cold War, and its relationship with the world was over, and it proceeded inevitably. And whoever was president--it's an impersonal process--would reconsider his relationship with Europe, would reconsider his relationship with China, would reconsider all relationships, plus attack the social crisis that foreign country and the imminent but not yet ready economic crisis. This becomes a problem of engineering, not of geopolitics, so to speak. How do you engineer this?” --George Friedman * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, I really look forward to these talks when you talk to George Friedman. I'll never forget, it probably was 10, 11 years ago that to George Friedman, he said Russia is going to have to go into Ukraine. And he said that's probably going to happen in the next five years. And I remember thinking, gosh, that's a pretty bold statement. Boy, it struck me when it happened. David: Well, we have a lot to talk about in terms of the financial markets, and we have to put that on hold for a moment. Bringing into focus some of the geopolitical issues that are in play, I think is worth doing. And so today George Friedman will be with us to do that. Later this week, Doug Noland and I will hold our quarterly conference call for our Tactical Short product, the events of recent weeks and the pressures which have emerged since the beginning of the year make this call a requirement for anyone seeking insight and understanding. Doug and I will not agree on all matters relating to the current administration, which in no way detracts from the insights we'll be discussing on Thursday in the financial markets. In fact, today's conversation with George Friedman may bring an important overlay to that analysis.…
Markets remain in flux this week, with many sudden movements and short-term charts giving little insight. Silver, platinum, palladium, and copper all see steep declines compared to gold’s continued strong performance. This week, we focus on the broader scope this week and investigate more long-term planning for your investment portfolio. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of April 9: The price of gold is down about 1.5%, but that’s after a steep decline of 6.5% intraweek. Gold is looking strong right now on a strong rebound. The price of silver is down 10.75% to $30.80. However, it is rebounding from its intraweek low of 17% down from its peak. The price of platinum is down 9% to $916 as of recording, but this is after plunging 14.5% since our last recording. Platinum was already on a decline from early February, down as much as 17% at one point. The price of palladium is down 9.5% to $905. It was down about 13% at one point. The price of copper is down 16%, sitting at $4.40. While it’s off its previous high, copper was down 23% at one point. Moving over to looking at the paper markets… The S&P 500 is down about 11%, sitting at 5,336 off of its February all-time high. However, it was down 21% at one point. Dow Transportation Average is down 30% from Nov 25 to April 9, lowest valuation since October 2022 and breaking below a significant support level. Debt Watch If you look at the big picture, the market gyration seems to be the main event. But to quote our colleague and portfolio manager at McAlvany Wealth Management, Doug Nolan, “The stocks are just the side show. The main event you need to watch is the 10-year Treasury market.” Indeed, the US will need to refinance $9.2 trillion worth of Treasuries between now and June 2025 — just a few months away. While there’s hope for increased revenue from tariffs, refinancing the sheer volume of paper entering the market will be quite the challenge. So if you think the markets have been volatile, this is just the beginning of more of the same (and potentially worse) to come. The 10-year Treasury yield, which had been rising as the interest rates had been rising for the last couple of years, took a dip for the first couple months of 2025. This year, it declined almost 19%, from 4.8 to about 3.9. President Trump has been begging the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates again, but we're not necessarily seeing that. But over the last few days, the 10 year Treasury yield has jumped about 11.5%, back up to around 4.3% And with significant rollover coming, it's very likely we're going to see those treasury yields continue to climb. Liquidity may become an issue here. Protection from Volatility While all of the industrial metals across the boards seem to be declining, gold is holding pretty steady, like it typically does in an emergency. Now is a critical time to reanalyze your investment plans and to take advantage of current market moves. We’re Here to Help McAlvany’s team of advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
This week’s McAlvany Weekly Commentary covers the shifting global financial landscape through the lens of tariffs, gold’s historic surge, and structural market volatility. David walks through the implications of what may be the end of the Bretton Woods era as we’ve known it, and why investors should be paying close attention to the signals coming from both financial markets and real assets. We also highlight David’s new white paper, a timely analysis of gold’s breakout to all-time highs and what it may be telegraphing about the future of currency stability, capital flows, and global trade. Click here to read David’s latest white paper on gold’s record highs, the unraveling of Bretton Woods, and what it means for your portfolio.Read the full paper → Two featured charts this week provide deeper context: S&P Historical Composite: Secular Highs and LowsA look at more than 150 years of inflation-adjusted S&P 500 performance. With the index now 398% above its 2009 low, this chart raises important questions about valuation, cycle exhaustion, and what comes next. Treasury to Gold Ratio – Gold PreferredThis chart tracks the long-term relationship between gold and long-dated U.S. Treasuries. The recent surge illustrates a major shift in capital preference toward hard assets—an essential dynamic to understand in the current environment. David also discusses market behavior over the past week, including key differences between asset classes, how forced liquidations are impacting prices, and why this environment reminds him of the 2008 deleveraging cycle—only with deeper, more systemic undercurrents. "Gold has been signaling for a number of years that we are at a very important historical inflection point. Gold surpassed a 25% return last year, rose over 19% in the first quarter of this year, and it's signaling structural changes are occurring. Smart money has been positioning ahead of that." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, I can't keep things straight. I've been listening to clips from Pelosi and she's been talking about the need for tariffs, but this goes back to the 1990s. I think Schumer said some things. Obama obviously was very, very vocal. I mean, what gives, are they no longer saying the same things or driving Teslas anymore? David: Well, clearly the market is shocked by the extent to which tariffs were introduced last week. And of course the response from the Chinese on Friday didn't help things because it suggests that we've got a war on our hands, not just a slap on the wrist from the US administration for a variety of our trade partners. But you go back through the clips with Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders from 2005 to 2019, they all advocated for massive tariffs, particularly with China, and their current condescension and critique of the president's policies are, in point of fact, disingenuous lies. They misrepresent what they have strongly advocated for over the decades, a better deal for the middle class and working-class families. The left objected to many of the concessions given to our trade partners during the recent decades of globalization flourishing, and now Trump is singing from their song sheet, and the left has to object because it's Trump. Kevin: And let's just face it, Dave. I mean, we've done this commentary now, what is it? 17 years. The economy and the financial world has just gotten more bloated and more bloated and more bloated. It had to correct at some point. So I don't know that the tariffs have to be blamed for everything, do they? David: Well, I think it's important to draw a strong line of distinction between the economic goals, the economic outcomes of the tariff regime and over-leveraged, overvalued financial market because that bubble is in search of a pin. The financial bubble was going to burst. Now, you have a source of uncertainty that acts like t...…
This week we review the strong gains seen in precious metals over the first quarter against the struggling equities market. Gold’s increases follow a strong movement from central banks and hedges to repatriate money to cover weak equities markets. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on April 2: The price of gold is down 3.5% to $3125 from a week earlier. The price of silver is up about 0.5% from our recording last week to $33.80. Platinum is up about 1% to $975 an ounce. Palladium is up 1.5% to $978 per ounce. Copper is down about 3.5% to $5.01 this week. Looking at the equities markets, which are mostly down this week… The S&P 500 is down about 0.5% at 5670. There was an intraday lowest price in the S&P since September. The DJIA is also down about 0.5% to 42,200. It also hit its September lows, but it did that about a week ago. The Dow Transports rose up just under 1% to around 15,000. And of course, we did record this before the tariff day announcements happened, so we expect to see even more volatility in the coming days. Q1 Metals Performance Precious metals showed outstanding performance in the first quarter of 2025. Gold is up 19% for the quarter, and silver gained 17%. Platinum gained 8%, while palladium increased 5% for the quarter. We would happily take this kind of performance in any quarter. That’s the great news for precious metals investors — they’re seeing great appreciation of their holdings. However, it also means that consumers are getting squeezed at the grocery store and gas pump. Silver Opportunity If gold is looking too pricey these days, you can start building your gold reserve by stacking ounces of silver and eventually making a ratio trade between gold and silver when the time is right. Now is the perfect time to add more silver ounces to get in before silver has its own run up. Silver is still undervalued, and it has a lot of upside potential. And now, silver is starting to play catch up. Looking at the silver chart, you can see that silver has been moving up in a stair-step pattern since the end of February. Silver has gone from $28 to $33 per ounce since then. Now, it looks like it will soon reach $35, and that’s where it could meet some resistance. As long as the gold to silver ratio remains in the 70 - 90 to one range, our clients will likely add more silver ounces to their portfolios. The trick is to just be patient and hold the silver until the ratio swings in favor of gold. Update Your Metals Strategy Are you considering adding more silver or gold ounces to your portfolio? How much should you own? The McAlvany advisor team is here to help guide you. With decades of experience in precious metals investing, they are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556 Markets face uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and new tariffs. Thanks for listening.…
5 More Stealth Bombers Moved To The Middle East S&P Down 4.6% QTR, Gold Up 19% QTR DOW/Gold Ratio Removes Emotion From Allocation Decisions "Months ago, this is what we were talking about. The leaders out of the 2022 decline, the ones that have recovered fastest, there was a narrative supporting that recovery through '23 and 2024: tech-dominant, AI-dominant, crypto-dominant. And they are now the leaders on the downside. In speaking with Wall Street firms, there is a hope that the worst is behind us already, and I'm not so sure." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Actually, Dave, I should say welcome to Liberation Day, American Liberation Day. David: There we go. We'll see what we're being liberated from and what the cost of liberation is. In every battle, there's collateral damage. Let's see what that looks like. Kevin: Well, gold, over 3,000, over 3,100 is like, all right, well, then there is a cost to liberation. David: Yeah. Spot gold traded to $3,145 to close out the month of March, and of course, closing out the quarter. The latest figures on investor interest, which had turned higher in February—of course that was following weak purchases in December and January—they were consistently high on the demand side in the first three weeks of March as well. So, full March numbers are still pending tabulation. February, as we mentioned, slight revision to what I said last week, 72 tons of ETF investor demand in North America. Again, first couple of weeks of March, 72 tons. First three weeks of March, this time stretched globally with one single day seeing 23.7 tons of demand. For March, it was Europe pulling the gold market higher. Asia, North America, demand was softer. The critical factors on investor minds, here we are this week—any surprise?—geopolitics, trade wars, barely separable. So, quarter-end gains in precious metals-related shares helped to push our returns in the asset management side to double digits. Hard assets in general, they're working in contrast to financial assets, which remain under pressure. So, we expect tempering of that uptrend. We love it, but all good things do come to a pause, at least, but only a short respite. Hard assets are to date not succumbing to pressure in equities. Let's see if they can stand up to deleveraging the way they already have stood up and outperformed broad market derisking. Kevin: I was thinking about it the other day, Dave, what if you had to tell a story and speak to any culture going back thousands of years? You'd have to simplify. You'd have to simplify the language and bring up things that they would recognize. Gold, the gold story, you could tell the gold/uncertainty story going back 4,000 years. I mean, the old Sumerian and Babylonian writings were weighing the price of things relative to gold, and a lot of times it had to do with uncertainty. David: Well, absolutely. Whether it was in ancient Lydia, fast-forward to more contemporary, Florence or even post-World War II, what does the world monetary system look like and do we use gold? Do we not use gold? Uncertainty reigns. And the feelings of investor concern, I think they're more acute coming into Liberation Day, April 2nd. Market behavior, it feels a little bit like this: A punted football just getting ready to hit the ground. The bounce could be relief. There's rallies in risk assets, a correction in gold, possible outcomes. But on the other hand, trade tensions ease. And those are, of course, possible outcomes if you have trade tensions which ease. But the flip side is also true. Equity indices are right now on a knife's edge. They've been trading below the 200-day moving average. This is the NDX, this is the S&P, this is the Dow, rallying back to test those numbers from below, and uniformly failing to muster enough energy to retake those technical thresholds.…
Precious metals markets remain relatively flat this week, while gold takes a minor step back down following its recent climb. Copper is the star of the show this week, reaching a new all-time high and seeing a 10% increase over the last 10 days. The S&P and USD make a small rebound, following weeks of poor performance. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on March 26: The price of gold is down 1% to $3015 from a week earlier. The price of silver is flat from our recording last week to $33.75. Platinum is down 3.5% to $965 an ounce. It has taken the biggest decline over the week. Palladium is up slightly, around 1% to $964 per ounce. Looking over at the paper markets, which are bouncing up slightly from a recent correction… The S&P 500 bounced up 1.2% to 5,666, a small bounce up after a recent 11% decline. The dollar index also bounced up 1% to $104.05. Dr. Copper Reaches New High The price of copper reached a new highest price ever, pushing above $5.32 early Wednesday. It had a 10% rise within the last week. Looking at its longer-term performance, copper has been in a rising, compressing channel since 2020. It had a slightly higher high in May 2024, and it reached its new high this week. As we’ve said before, the shiny metal is commonly called Dr. Copper because it tends to lead other industrial resources — as well as precious metals, to some extent. When copper becomes more expensive, it tends to indicate that inflation is on the rise. Some of copper’s rise could certainly be due to this massive tariff discussion, as well as its effect on consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence Declines Following years of a government stimulated economy, markets are now entering a detox period. Treasury Secretary Bessette has said that we need to expect a detox period, and since the election, there has been the beginning of belt tightening. This has also led to the lowest consumer confidence score seen since January 2021. The most recent report showed consumer confidence dropping to 92.9 from 100 in February. Market expectations were that consumer confidence would drop to 94. And while the markets may be headed into more belt tightening and recession, smart investors know to look at where the big money is betting — and right now, that’s in real, physical gold. Add Gold to Your Portfolio Working with an expert in precious metals will help you find the best buying opportunities for adding more gold to your portfolio. If you haven’t had a complimentary meeting with an advisor at McAlvany Precious Metals to talk through your financial objectives, now is a great time to start. Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
Bessent: "End Intox With Detox" Anxiety High With Uncertainty Of New Rules Personality Test Identifies Trump With Churchill, LBJ, Castro, & Jack Nicholson "We may or may not be able to grow our way out, but the efforts to shrink the scope of expenditures and drive economic growth via economic expansion instead of government expansion—two very different means of driving the economy—that's being put in motion in one place on the planet today. One place only. The USA. It's something like a corporate turnaround. First, manage your outflows and cut all unnecessary spending. Then drive growth in the areas you have the greatest advantage, building back with a much reduced budget. Turnaround specialists are rarely loved within the organization that has ossified and is in the process of being restructured, but that process can be a matter of survival." —David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, we just met with Morgan Lewis, and he had some interesting statistics to talk about. Are we possibly going to go into a recession? I hate to say, my mind wandered. I mean it was very interesting listening to the statistics coming out of all the economic sources. But I started thinking of the chicken coop meter. I live on five acres and we used to run a chicken coop. We don't now, but every neighbor around me, I was thinking about it while he was talking. Every neighbor around me has started a chicken coop in the last year or two. I hear roosters all around me, and I was thinking, I wonder, yeah, could that be the price of eggs or do you think maybe that's a precursor to people realizing things are going to get tight? David: Yeah, it is obviously partially an egg issue or they just don't want to pay 12 bucks for a dozen, a dollar apiece. All of a sudden your cheap protein source has gone the way of the dodo bird. Well, yeah, I think there is also an adjustment to what may be harder times. This is where we've often talked about a two-tiered economy and what economists will sometimes describe as a K-shaped economy where some are doing very well. One of the legs of the K goes up and to the right and is fine, and the other leg goes down. And I think the middle class, the lower middle class has been under pressure for some time in the continuation of the inflation trend, whether it's in price of a dozen eggs or a gallon of milk, or even just a marginal 2% increase off of a base level which was much, much lower four or five years ago. It's compounded negatively, and their income is not keeping up. Kevin: Well, and Morgan was bringing out, he said, you know, the gold thesis that we've been talking about for so long may really showing itself right now because he quoted Scott Bessent, who was being interviewed on Meet the Press, and Meet the press basically said, "Okay, this period of detox, are we going to go into a recession?" And Scott was like, "I've taught on this and we were going to have a crisis anyway." David: And we may have a crisis, Kevin: We may have a crisis. David: But here's what's different. We're taking steps to do something different versus what we have done in the past, which is intox over and over again in response to crisis after crisis. We've seen credit explode higher as a way to save the system. And we've gotten to a level that that is not in any way sustainable, and we cannot go that way again. So detox versus intox, that is the only way forward. Kevin: So even last year before we knew Trump was going to be president, before Scott Bessent was in— Last year at this time, Dave, our conversation on gold was about price moves. And I'm not going to say that we want to say that we predict prices. I can't at all. But the things you were saying about gold and the price of gold a year ago, and then today, over the last few months, let's go over that because I think it's important to go back and say, "All right,…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Gold surged 4% since last week, while silver has risen 1.6%, maintaining a gold-to-silver ratio near 90:1. Platinum and palladium also saw gains, up 1.7% and 1%, respectively. Meanwhile, the stock market remains under pressure, climbing back up in small increments, but all staying below their 200-day moving averages. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on March 19: The price of gold is up 4% to $3046 from a week earlier. Gold is starting to look a little bit parabolic. The price of silver is up 1.6% from our recording last week to $33.80. As we're recording, we're flirting with that 90 to one gold to silver ratio. Platinum is up 1.7% to $1,005 an ounce. and a little bit behind it. Palladium is up about 0.85% to $955 per ounce, just about flat from a week earlier. Looking at the paper markets, which are still in correction territory and about 9% from where they topped… The DJIA is up 1.6% sitting just under 42,000. The S&P 500 is up 1.5% to 5,680, a small bounce up from last week. The NASDAQ is up about 0.2% to 19,580 — pretty much flat from a week earlier. Now all three of those paper markets have been sitting below their 200-day moving average now for about the last week or so. The dollar index is sitting flat around $103.05 after falling off a cliff over the last week or two. Going Long on Gold As we discussed a few weeks ago, the commitment of traders report shows more of the institutional investors betting long on gold. There are about 215,000 long contracts compared to about 33,000 short. So at least as of last week, the long contracts keep flowing. Institutional investors are repatriating gold from abroad and unwinding their short positions. The gold carry trade has been circling about the precious metals industry for 25 years as a mechanism to borrow gold at a very cheap rate and use the proceeds to invest in whatever the institution wanted to, and then keeping the price of gold low, replacing it at the end of the year or end of the contract at a cheaper price. Well, that's not working right now. Institutions are leading this short covering rally. It's not the retail investor driving into the gold market. Most of the retail customers are enjoying the direction the country is in right now. More broadly, there is a paradigm shift happening with the markets. The new administration is lending credence to the gold market by talking about it for the first time in 40 years, giving it significance rather than just trying to minimize its significance. Tariffs Add Pressure to Equities The mainstream media continues to attack the economy, raising red flags about tariffs and the trade war concerns, and the expectations for continuing inflation. At Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, Chairman Powell got a little political, indicating that they would withhold any cuts because they're uncertain about the effect tariffs would have on driving inflation higher. Main Street feels like the economy is great. I don't think that Main Street feels like the economy is terrible, but they may not feel secure that it is great. And the president’s focus is on making Main Street USA great. The risk to that could be that the equities go beyond the recent correction into bearish territory or a recession. The Latest Gold Opportunity Right now, you can buy certified 100-year-old old Saints and Liberties — MS 62, MS 63, MS 64 — for less money per coin than Gold Eagles right now. The prices on these Saints and Liberties have gone up to two or three times the price of gold in the past. But now you can get them for less than the price of a gold bullion coin. We have never seen this happen. If you’re ready to add more real gold ounces to your portfolio, please give McAlvany a call. You can call us at (800) 525-9556, and one of our trusted advisors will help you get started.…
US Dollar Down 27.4% VS Gold Over 12 Months Hard Asset Stocks Clearly Outperforming Bond Index How To Multiply Stock Holdings With DOW/Gold Ratio "I think we are entering a new phase in the metals market. Many investors who up to this point have never owned the metals, they're the ones who are looking and saying, "I think we have an allocation gap. I think we don't own any and we should own some." So going from not a dollar's worth, not a single gram of gold in their portfolio, new allocators are entering the fray with a fresh set of eyes and a motivation to own gold that didn't exist for them before 2025." --David McAlvany * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick along with David McAlvany. Well, Monday, Dave, I remembered something back from the mid-1990s. I was asked to be a guest at the New York Mercantile Exchange. This was in the World Trade Center at the time, the original World Trade Centers. And I remember standing outside the gold pit. You know, the pits there. Most of the oil was traded in the various pits at the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold, silver, platinum, palladium. I was standing right outside of the gold pit when gold happened to be 399 that day, $399 an ounce. And these guys, you can imagine the pits, these guys stand in a circle, they get a phone call. Somebody says, "Go ahead and sell a contract." One of the traders came by and he offered his hand. They put their palm forward when they're trying to sell something. And he put his hand forward and he was saying, "Augie at aught. Augie at aught." And I was like, what does that mean, Augie at aught? Well, he was trying to sell an August contract for gold at $400. These traders who were standing there, they were like, "Yeah, no, I'm not going to be the guy who buys Augie at aught. I'm not going to be the guy who breaks 400." But Monday, we see triple, triple aught. $3,000 gold, Dave. This is the first time in anybody's lifetime. David: Yeah, a close above 3,000 is pretty significant, and it appears we'll get a multi-day close above 3,000. And so there's some interesting dynamics within the gold market. Of course, very interesting dynamics across the broader financial landscape. And budget numbers are in, February budget deficit numbers are in, and we added another $307 billion to the debt dumpster fire. Kevin: Wow. David: But it was under expectations. They expected 308, so 307, I mean, it seems like a huge win. That brings us to 1.15 trillion for the first five months of the fiscal year. Kevin: Wow. David: While we may not continue at that average annual rate of 230 billion monthly, we are on that theoretical course for 2.76 trillion for the full fiscal year. And of course, that's if the last seven months look like the first five. Bessent has his work cut out for him. If we land a recession in 2025, okay, 2.5, $3 trillion deficit, I think that's a given. A nasty recession would tilt the number towards 4 trillion. That's not politics. This is math. So the current trend for yields in the bond market, US Treasuries in particular, are lower, and that's in large part because of the stress in the equities markets, people looking for safe havens. But that could reverse by year-end should the fixed-income vigilantes get excitable. Kevin: So the question always is, how long can we continue to do this? How long can we continue to borrow this kind of money? David: Yeah. Big questions remain. We are at the end of the major credit cycle. Government finance has come to dominate the credit system. What do the markets—particularly the bond markets—look like when air leaks from the granddaddy of all bubbles, the government debt bubble? Kevin: Yeah, and I'm wondering if even the American doesn't ask that question, if it's not the Chinese right now asking that question. David: Yeah. Well, speaking of exciting, for the month of February, the People's Bank of China added a modest five...…
Precious metals make a strong showing this week with gold back above the $2900 level. The US dollar continues its downwards trend, dropping 3% over the last week. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on March 12: The price of gold is up about 0.5% at $2,936. It did have a couple percent movement down and then back up in between recordings. The price of silver is up about 4% over the last week, sitting at $33.22 Platinum up about 2.5%, sitting at $990, and just inching towards that thousand dollars mark again. Palladium is up about 3% at $946, showing a little strength in its own right as well. Meanwhile in the paper markets… The US dollar is down another 3% over the last week to $103.05. So the dollar remains in free fall now for the last couple of weeks, and it looks like it's a dragon. The S&P 500 is down 7% to 5,577, now down over 10%. The Dow Industrials is down 4.5% to 41,960, and from top to bottom down about 9%. The Dow Transportation Index is down 5.3% to around 14,600, and it has declined 18% since reaching a high in November 2024. The NASDAQ was down 3% at 19,590 for the week, and down about 14% off highs in February. Market Flight to Safety We have been speaking for several weeks about factors in the broader markets that affect the prices of precious metals — like optimism, GDP, and the rate of inflation. In order for us to see a significant change in precious metals prices, you'd have to see a significant change in one of those categories. With the tariff and trade wars, we’ve seen a lot of movement. Reviewing the research coming out of Hedgeye Risk Management and their Growth, Inflation, Policy (GIP) Quad System, it seems the US is moving into quadrant four — which is growth slowing and inflation slowing. What’s unusual is that when you have a sell off occurring in the equities market or in the crypto market, money typically goes into the US dollar. However, there’s a double whammy of the dollar falling precipitously as well as the equities market falling. So where is the money going? It's fleeing into safety and going into metals. The Gold Rush Begins Trump has also called for an audit of all the gold stored in Fort Knox. But even if all 8,100 tons of gold are stored there, that doesn’t even equal $900 billion — which is valued at about 1.3% of all of the money in circulation and the national debt. Smart investors who start stacking gold ounces now will be getting in ahead of the massive gold rush about to happen. The Tangible Opportunity The new US administration is slashing the government budget and finding money quickly in anticipation of what’s to come financially. The US owes $36 trillion, and it will have to refinance $27 trillion when it comes due in the next four years. That is an erupting volcano of treasury paper into a market without enough buyers. The US has to find a way to move that money into something else. That’s why Trump has also been talking about establishing a Sovereign Wealth Fund, which could include gold, timber, oil and gas, pipelines and other tangible assets. Everything that the government is considering putting into a Sovereign Wealth Fund is exactly what we’ve been offering through our hard asset portfolios at McAlvany Wealth Management. Add Gold Ounces Today If you haven’t connected with a McAlvany Advisor yet, now is a great time to discover how gold can support your investment strategy. Call us at (800) 525-9556 for a complimentary portfolio review. One of our trusted advisors will help you discover your personal strategy for adding gold ounces to reach your goals.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
German Borrowing Costs Surge Trump Calls Tariff The Most Beautiful Word China Says: "You Want War?... Fine" "We've often noted the migration of crisis from financial and economic to the political and geopolitical realm. We should not forget that the largest buyers of gold today are acquiring it as a strategic allocation, not merely as a trade. In a disrupted world with changing associations—very fluid loyalties—control is important, autonomy is important, agency is important, insurance is important." - David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to The McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, we've been doing this a long time—2008, on—this commentary anyway. The company's been here since 1972, so we've seen an awful lot, but think about the last few years when America was paying Europe's bills, and the handouts were coming out quite a bit. We were scratching our heads going, ZIRP, zero interest rate policy. If you were a German or if you were a European, you really didn't have to pay interest on your debt, did you? David: No. And that is quickly changing. You know, the speed at which things are changing reminds me a lot of where we were, March of 2008, so 17 years ago. As we get to our anniversary this month, it is fascinating, the quantity of information, the complexity of how things are occurring, trying to wrap our minds around them, get our arms around them from a market's perspective is one thing, from an economic perspective is another, from a political and public policy perspective, yet another still. And in terms of international relations, trying to weave all these things together, it's just flat complicated. Kevin: When we were first starting this program, it was following Bear Stearns coming out and trying to offer debt into the market and then pulling the debt back off. Something very similar happened this week, didn't it? David: Yeah, we were alive when Bear Stearns was an entity. There's some people in the markets today that probably don't even know that name—unless they're interested in the history of the global financial crisis, then they might have some historical reference, but no experience. We have a lot of mile markers in our company, and I go back through— Sometimes I can tell where we were at in a period of time by the bars that we're looking at. For instance— Kevin: You're talking about where they serve drinks? David: Oh, no. I mean, I have Silver Bache bars. B-A-C-H-E. Bache was a Wall Street firm that is no more. We have Gold Credit Suisse Bars. 20 years from now, people will be like, "Who is Credit Suisse?" They're gone, too. Over time, there is an evolution, and it is very Darwinian on Wall Street. Kevin: That's such an amazing metaphor, Dave, because the gold and the silver that those bars, actually, those imprints on those bars, the gold and the silver, has just been going up. But a lot of those places have just disappeared. David: Yeah, I love the story that they tell long after these firms, very established firms, have gone away. You think, "Well, they must not have been anything significant." Anybody remember Barings? Kevin: Yeah. David: Known as the sixth great power. I mean, in terms of importance in the world scene. I mean, it's just another bank, just another failure. And these things- Kevin: And it failed in a day. David: These things happen, and I do feel— Obviously the dynamics are different. We're not talking about mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, CLOs, CDOs, but we are back to a market where leveraged loans are selling off and credit is being— I wouldn't say we're moving towards any degree of panic, but there's pressure developing within the corporate credit markets. And last week, to your point earlier, the European bond markets are reflecting the German commitment to spend, and prices of European IOUs uniformly sold off last week with yields rising 40 to 45 basis points for the week in ...…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Precious metals experienced some small dips early in the week, but all jumped back up to steady levels, while silver rose over 3% from last week. The volatility continues with the dollar index down significantly. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on March 5: The price of gold is flat at $2,915 from Wednesday to Wednesday. But gold dropped down to $2,832 in the beginning of the week. The price of silver is up almost 3.5% at $32.70. It hasn’t broken into new territory, but it is looking strong after declining last week. Platinum is also flat at $970, up just a few dollars from the prior week. But the price fell to about $929 intraweek. Palladium is up 3.2% in the last week to $946. Looking over at the paper markets… The S&P 500 is down about 2% from our recording last week, currently sitting at 5838. The US dollar is down over 2% to $104.03. It had the three worst trading days since 2022. A pretty significant reaction to economic and political news. Trump Tariffs Trump wanted tariffs and better prices at the gas pump, and so far he got his wish. His goal is to drive more domestic manufacturing and increase exports from the US. And along with this, the US dollar has also weakened. OPEC has stated that they will increase production of oil, which will make consumers happy. However, it will also drive prices down globally, which does not bode well for domestic production in terms of prices. Gold Shines in February Looking at the monthly numbers, gold was the only metal that ended February in positive territory. Gold rose up 1.6% over the month, and it is 8% higher year-to-date. Meanwhile, silver lost 1.1%. Platinum ended the month down 4.3%. Palladium declined 9.3% in February. When we look at charting trend lines, it appears that gold will likely trade sideways for a while or potentially go into a small correction. But it is unlikely to sink down to lows that we saw even just a couple of years ago. In next week’s episode, we will dive deeper into precious metals market trends and what we predict will happen with gold in 2025 and beyond. Be sure to tune in next week. Get Started With Gold If you haven’t connected with a McAlvany Advisor yet, now is a great time to discover how gold can support your investment strategy. Our advisors are happy to speak with you about your personal investment goals and how to start adding gold ounces. Just give the team a call at (800) 525-9556 to get a complimentary portfolio review.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
European Defense Stocks Soar Since Jan 1 Three U.S. Goals: Minerals, No NATO Ukraine, Europe Pays Fair Share Gold Up 70% More Than DOW In 25 Years "It was as if Trump and Vance were saying, "You want to raise the guarantee issue again? That was a firm no, don't try and play the press on this issue. And you know what? If you can't get down to business on the only yes issue we're here to settle, then lingering on the already settled no issue brings this meeting to a close. You're fired." Guess how fast the tone shifts? Go back to yes on minerals, and Zelensky can stay Presidentsky indefinitely. But if you change the direction of the conversation, dead end, we're done." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, welcome back. Last Friday was a really interesting day here in the United States, but Europe looked at it in a different way. And you were in, I think, France on Friday. David: Yeah, we were celebrating our 25th anniversary. 25 years is not a short stretch, but I'm looking forward to the next 25. And glad to be back in the US. Kevin: Well, a quarter of a century, it's amazing when you actually talk about it like that, it's like, wow, a quarter of a century? I still see you guys as newly marrieds. David: I think we do too. Kevin: Well, what occurred last Friday, it's interesting. I called my wife, and she said, "Hey, did you just see what happened in the Oval Office?" And I think we'd better talk about that. David: Propaganda is something that has been a fascination to me for a long time, how you message things, and what you want people to receive in the message. There's no doubt that in warfare, messaging and communication are key. And it's not because you want the opposition to understand you, but because you want them to understand what you want them to understand. So propaganda is a tool for shaping perceptions and driving towards desired outcomes. And it's a fluid communications mechanism, which sometimes expresses the truth, sometimes expresses the truth from a unique vantage point, and sometimes embraces falsehood. Most often, it's moving unannounced from one camp to the other camp, making impressions via those staged appearances. Kevin: I remember when you and I agreed to read Machiavelli's The Prince together, and I felt dirty after I read it, to be quite honest with you, because there was a lot of falsehood. Do you think that sounds like the current administration? David: No, I don't think so. Reflecting on the events of last week with Trump, with JD Vance, and Zelensky in the Oval Office, there was no Machiavellian wizardry, no Goebbels' manipulation machine. Trump, it seems to me, has a yes and a no. Kevin: He seemed to know what he was going to go in there for, and it didn't happen. David: Two primary outcomes desired from the Zelensky talks. Number one, minerals. That is the yes. Not there to discuss, not there to ask for 50% and settle on 25%. To go forward, the yes box must be checked. Number two was the no, no NATO membership, and no backdoor equivalent. The security guarantees that Zelensky keeps circling back to are an implied membership, not literal, but the membership is for one thing, to obligate Europe and the US to directly intervene via Article 5, the collective defense article. If Zelensky can't have membership, he wants the primary benefit of membership, the security guarantee. And Trump has been crystal clear that a stated security guarantee is off the table. Kevin: Yeah. And did you see how Trump's tone shifted, along with Vance, when they started to realize that Zelensky wasn't seeing it that way at all? David: Exactly. It was a change in posture, a change in body language. Tone shifted along with Vance's—Trump's, that is—when the guarantee issue was raised again. And the annoyance level was audible and visible, his tone, and volume,…
Gold was down slightly week over week. Silver dropped 3% over the past week, while platinum was flat and palladium dropped over 7%. Bitcoin took a massive hit following a major hack. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 26: The price of gold is down 0.6% at $2,918 from a week earlier. The price of silver is down 3% sitting firmly at $31.80, still looking pretty strong after a big move up. Platinum is down 1.8% at $966. Palladium is down 7.25% in the last week to $921. Looking over at the broader markets… The S&P 500 is down about 3% to 5,950 from a week earlier. The US dollar is at $106.50, declining about 0.4% from a week earlier. Bitcoin is down 13% in the last week, after some North Korean hackers got into one of the crypto exchanges. Bullish Gold As we discussed before the election, we expected the price of gold to dip if a Republican president came into office. And as predicted, gold did decline once Trump sealed his victory. The difference is that gold’s dip was pretty insignificant if you compare it to other presidential elections. In Trump’s previous 2016 victory, gold bottomed out around 12-13% lower in February and March. For this election, gold only fell about 7% and it hit the bottom in December. Looking at the short-term move, gold was around $2590 in mid-December 2024. Now that we’re at the end of February, the price of gold has jumped up all the way to a high of $2,955. That’s an almost 50% rise over the last 12 months. Could there be a buying opportunity in the near future? With gold on this meteoric rise, there is still a chance that it will have a Fibonacci correction level — which would mean a potential $100 decline. But these buying opportunities have become more rare recently with the bullishness in the gold market. Silver Buy Opportunity Silver has been strong over the last several months, with a strong stair-step pattern up when you look at its price chart. Looking at the short term, silver has already taken about a 50% retracement in price. You're Silver’s bull market started around the end of December where the price was around $29.16. It has since run up to $33.40 taking a little interim step back down. Silver is still extremely undervalued, and investing in it while the price is down opens future opportunities for ratio trades. Especially when it comes to stacking ounce of gold over time, silver can create that opportunity with a smaller investment in silver ounces that can eventually be exchange for gold ounces. Seize Opportunity Still waiting on the sidelines for the right time to buy precious metals? The best time to buy metals was 20 years ago — but the second best time is today. Your McAlvany Advisor can help you determine your best strategy for adding ounces of gold and other precious metals to your portfolio. With decades of experience as investors themselves, they are happy to speak with you about your personal investment goals and get you started the right way. Just give the team a call at (800) 525-9556 to get a complimentary portfolio review.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Bill King On Russia, Iran, China, & Bretton Woods III Should Trump Expect The Reagan Double Dip Recession? DOGE Attacks The Grift & Skim Government “The gold is an okay inflation hedge. It's an enormous political hedge, and that's what's going on. China, especially Europe. Europe is in deep, deep trouble. Now the good news is that Trump might force them to do the major restructuring that they need to do, just like some company that's going down and all of a sudden, the vultures of private equity start taking positions and you start saying, 'That's it. We got a position there, and guess what? If you don't cut all this stuff out, we're just pulling your funding and then you're going to go to zero.' That's what Trump's giving to Europe, reform or guess what? You're going to go to zero." —Bill King Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, I'm really looking forward to this interview. We talk to Bill King at least once a year, maybe twice a year. I was talking to a client just before we stepped into the studio. This guy is pretty sharp. He works at a lab that works on nuclear fusion. He listens to the Commentary every week, and I said, we're going to go interview Bill King right now. And he goes, "Oh, I love Bill King." He says, "Now, I do have to listen two or three times, but I love Bill King." David: A lot to unpack for sure, every time. The perspective that is sort of from macro to micro, taking the 30,000-foot view and then getting right into the trenches, daily market activity. No better guest, I don't think, that we've had in the 18, 19 years we've been doing this. * * * Bill King, always great to have you on the program. I feel like we're in touch daily as we read the King Report without fail daily. In fact, my oldest son is a bit of a news junkie and he too has enjoyed the King Report as he's gotten older, freshman in college now and probably better read than most his age, and I have you to thank for that. So let's start with some contextual issues, and then drive towards specific market and asset class considerations. Really big things changing, potentially the re-engineering of the global trade system on the table. Tariffs are part of that, maybe change tax policy internationally factoring in. Expand for us what it means to be at the intersection of significant trade policy shifts, political re-engineering here in the US, and a morphing of geopolitical commitments. Bill: You know, these are changes that probably are more profound than even when Reagan came in, and probably more profound than the Republican Revolution in 1994 when they took the House for first time since with the '50s. Since then, they've had the House more than the Democrats, when you go back all those years between the '50s and whatever, thirty-some years, the Republicans seldom had the house. So some very profound changes. And the big one, of course, is Trump is trying to dismantle the administrative state, the deep state. And this is something all the way back to Reagan people talked about, but it hasn't happened because of entrenched interests in the United States Congress and in the executive branch and even the judiciary, and it's happening so rapidly. And then of course, the same thing is you're getting Europe. Europe had the changes with Soviet Union went down '91. The wall went down, what, '89 and then you saw that they brought in the euro, the EU, all this stuff is unwinding. And then even China, China's having all kinds of issues now. They have so much debt, they're straining to get their economy going. There's all kind of hints of political unrest and Xi's trying to hold on. So we don't quite know. I mean, the one thing the Fed is right, is they're saying, "We had to wait because we don't know how this is going to play out." Well, they're looking at the tariffs, but there's things far bigger than tariffs going on.…
Gold and silver rose up this week, while platinum slid off a new high and palladium remained flat. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 19: The price of gold is up 0.6% at $2,935. However, gold was as high as around $2,947 this past week, so we did see gold put in a new all time high. The price of silver is up 1.4% on the week at $32.77. Silver got as high as about $33.40 this past week. So silver had a pretty strong week out doing gold by a little bit and bringing that ratio back under 90, currently sitting at around 89 to one. Platinum is down 6.3%, but we did start our week last Thursday at the October high of $1,053, so Platinum had a pretty strong week last week ending on Thursday at a multiple month high. Palladium is flat at $990. But it did go as high as $1,035 during the week and at one point was up about 5%. So there’s some consistent movement up in both platinum and palladium. Looking at the broader markets… The S&P 500 is up 1.3% to 6,143, putting in a new all time high. It has a beautiful stair-step chart. The US dollar is down about 0.5%, sitting at $107.01, confirming the downtrend in the purchasing power of the US dollar right now. Given what's going on in the precious metals market this week, we need to talk a little bit about supply and demand. Gold Leasing in Demand There’s a renewed interest in gold leases among large institutional investors. Here’s how gold leasing typically works: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) will lease gold for a period of time depending upon the money that's flowing into their exchange traded funds. Market makers such as big corporate dealers will borrow gold for a year to capitalize their operation. Less than three months ago, institutions could borrow gold for close to 0% interest per year, and borrow several tons of gold at less than 0.5% - 1% per year cheaper than getting a bank loan. But now, gold lease rates are anywhere from 3% — or perhaps at 2% if you just borrow it for six months. More money is flowing into gold ETFs from Europe and Asia. But you can’t say the same about US investors. Americans Still Betting on Crypto Americans see it differently — their money is skipping the ETFs and going into cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. With the new administration shaking things up, and with DOGE uncovering corruption, US investors are feeling more confident. So instead of putting their money in a real and tangible store of value like gold, they are willing to bet big on the uncertain cryptocurrencies. The only problem? The American public still hasn't caught on to the fact that the price of gold is going to go so much higher. The smartest wealth builders are quietly adding more gold ounces — serving as the insurance portion that will protect their purchasing power from being eroded by inflation. And the way the US government has been running up debt, inflation is inevitable. Add Gold Ounces Today Call us at (800) 525-9556 so we can speak with you individually and walk through your own portfolio. Our team of experts can help you understand the whys and the hows with acquiring gold.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Median Age Of Renter Is Now 42, Up From 33 Trump Will Get A Victory Lap If He Cuts Middle Class Taxes Strong, Long-Term Holding Gold Buyers Dominate Market "I think Trump gets his victory lap if he can aid middle-class taxpayers with cuts, social security becoming tax-free, the extending of cuts already in place. These things would be very helpful to the middle class, and potentially offset a significant portion of the next inflationary increase. But asset classes remain very vulnerable to a second thrust higher from inflation. So the difference between the middle class worrying about income and how far their money goes versus what their balance sheet looks like, I think that's where the balance sheet is particularly vulnerable. From a valuation perspective, the stock market today is set to deliver the worst returns on record over the next decade." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, if I look back, my wife and I, when we first got married we were quite young. I mean I was 20 when we got married, and we initially bought our first place with a little bit of help from our parents as far as the down payment goes. And what we've tried to do is we've tried to progressively own a little larger place—up to the point that the house we've been in now we've been in almost 30 years, and we'll probably at this point have to start downsizing—but that was the idea. All of the people that I knew, that's what you did. You built, you built, you built, and then you downsized. And what that did was that opened up the opportunity of possibly having a nest egg when it comes time for retirement. It feels like that's changing. David: Yeah. A mortgage allows you to over time build that nest egg through almost like a four savings program. Yes, there's the debt that's associated with it, but as you retain some equity, assuming that the value of the house is stable or moves higher, it's pretty remarkable. Zillow reported last week, the median age of a renter is now 42 years old— Kevin: Wow. David: —up from 33 years old just three years ago. Kevin: That is incredible. So renting in your 40s, that seems to be the new way. David: Shocking to me, but not surprising given the affordability of housing. So confirming an affordability crisis in real estate, the Zillow stats suggest we are creating a generation that is far less likely to see the net worth bump and liquidity bump in retirement years from converting home equity into a larger retirement nest egg, kind of topping it off and then converting it to an income-producing asset. Maybe it's bonds, maybe it's mutual funds, maybe it's something else. That is typical in investors' life cycle. Buy, gradually pay off the mortgage. If real estate values have increased, you have an appreciated asset that is larger than you need as your family matures and moves out, allowing you to convert the home equity into a retirement nest egg additive. Kevin: It just goes to show we've heard people say, "Well, someday you'll own nothing and you'll be happy about it," but we're seeing that trend right now. I mean with where people live or even music, Dave. In the old days you would download something, you'd have a CD or you'd download it and you'd pay for it and you'd have it. Now every time you try to listen to something, I was trying to listen to Beethoven's 6th Symphony the other day. I own it. I know it's somewhere on the iPod or it's on the iPhone, but they just wanted to sell me a subscription. They don't want me to own anything. David: That's right. Kevin: They just want me to renew and rent everything. David: Yeah, rent the song. Kevin: Everything. David: Well, the ramp up in real estate prices has been beneficial to current owners, but it's locked out a generation from home ownership, and it's creating over time a greater reliance on Social Security,…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
1 Gold Hits New All-Time Highs | Market Insights & Inflation Concerns 20:04
20:04 나중에 재생 나중에 재생 리스트 좋아요 좋아요20:04
나중에 재생 나중에 재생 리스트 좋아요 좋아요Gold and platinum continue to march higher, while silver and palladium buck the overall trend. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 12: The price of gold is up 1.25% to around $2904 — not a huge change week over week. However, gold did reach a high of $2942 midweek, which marks a new all time high. The price of silver is down 0.2% on the week, sitting at $32.22 — just about flat. However, silver had a swing from the intraday high to low of about 5%. Platinum is up, 2.2% or $1,033, showing some strength this week. Palladium continues its slide down 3% to $985. And if you look at the high right at the end of January, palladium is down 9% in the month of February. Looking at the broader market… The S&P 500 is down about 0.4% or 6,053. However, it seems to be in a sideways pause. At least as of right now for the last couple of weeks, the equities market is trading sideways. The dollar is up about 0.16% to $108 from our recording last week — seeing some strength in the US dollar. Dr. Copper’s Check Up With the price of gold up and the price of silver basically flat, the gold-to-silver ratio hit 92.2 as of recording. That is the highest it has been since August 2022, and the fourth highest gold silver ratio ever. How do we see silver moving with the ratio widening? That’s when we look at what copper is doing. As we have discussed before, the metal carries the moniker "Dr. Copper" because it is an indicator that reflects the health of the economy. As we saw in a recent January episode, copper continues to show strength — which means the economy is growing. Copper is back near all-time highs. As of this recording, it is around $4.70, which is right at the top of its trading range. And it’s likely that it could break through to $5. If it does, we expect that the price of silver will also rise, and narrow the gold-to-silver ratio again. DOGE to Audit BLS We’ve talked before about how statistical reports seem to paint a more rosy picture of the outlook of the economy. For example, everybody knows that inflation is way under-reported compared to what it actually costs to put food on the table and gas in the car. Now, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is going to audit the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While it’s impossible to know exactly what will happen, it’s possible we’ll see major changes in past reports on everything from non-farm payrolls to GDP and CPI. The inflation rate will likely be significantly higher than what has been reported in the past. Because the policymakers in Washington use all of the figures in the economic reports to allocate funding, whatever DOGE uncovers in their reports could lead to a massive overhaul in governmental spending. Worldwide Demand for Gold Meanwhile, the gold price continues to climb higher with strong demand worldwide. Global gold ETF holdings bounced up 3,253 tons to a total assets under management of US $294 billion. Now it's a matter of who will control the physical aspect of of gold. Will it be the East or the West? Is it going to be the LBMA or the Comex and NYMEX? One thing’s for certain, US investors have a distinct advantage right now with premiums on real, physical gold at very low prices — so this is the time to start adding ounces to your portfolio. Plan Your Metals Strategy How many ounces of gold and other precious metals should you add to your portfolio? The McAlvany advisor team is here to help guide you. With decades of experience in precious metals investing, they are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Gold Price In Dollars To Rise China Approves Gold Now In Its Insurance Company Portfolios Russian Consumer Demand For Gold Up 60% Since Ukraine Invasion "A weaker dollar is on the agenda, and this is a decided shift to force the dollar lower on a managed basis, ultimately will require a multilateral currency agreement that takes the dollar lower relative to its global peers. We'll have to have participation from other central banks as we orchestrate that. The Plaza Accord accomplished this in 1985, and a version of that is a growing likelihood." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, it was a quick trip, but I have to say aloha. Welcome back. David: The halfway point between the Philippines and Durango, Colorado is Honolulu—Waikiki. Kevin: Honolulu with a— Didn't you say you got a convertible and you just drove all around the island up to the North Shore? David: Oh, got a great deal, and took my parents all over the place. Yes, we're going to talk about gold. Kevin: Yeah. David: Yeah. New all-time highs warrant a conversation. It's trading over 2,900 this week. My call on Bloomberg Television a month back for 3,250 in 2025 seems a little less far-fetched. Kevin: It feels sort of daring when you do it and now you can look at it and go, "Okay, 3,250." We're very, very close to that, but let's go back to the trip. You have been out of the office now for the last week. Is there perspective that comes when you step away from the chaos? David: Definitely. A few days out of the office, a few days with my parents brings perspective. I'm grateful for our annual meetups, and I hope we have a lot more of them. I treasure each one of them. Kevin: I love the fact that you guys are so deliberate year after year after year. Think back, Dave. Think back to some of the great trips that you've had with your parents. David: Oh, well, one that stands out, I remember a trip to Manhattan with my parents to celebrate what was our first anniversary and their 30th. We were living in Boston at the time, so New York was a short stretch away. Now I'm approaching, still have five years, a 30th anniversary of my own. Life happens that fast. You blink, and decades have passed. I think we're confronted with inescapable moments of self-reflection, and sometimes those are at big life events. Think of your family, weddings, funerals. You get together and it's reflecting back and you see how much has changed in the time that's passed in between. Outside of the best man's toast and the epitaph—between them, I should say—there's a blur of days and years and decades. I think some of us with a melancholy streak or sentimental soft spot reflect a little more often and don't need those big days for inspiration. Most days, frankly, are strung together in sort of an undifferentiated stream like frames in a film reel. Kevin: I just got off the phone with a client before we stepped into the studio. These folks own a ranch up in Oregon—or farm, actually—and they just had a new lamb that was born right before we talked. She had to run out the door to chase off predators actually, but they had been accumulating precious metals for years. They listen to the Commentary. I got to know them more than a decade ago, but they said, "Kevin, I just want you to know as we go through this triangle update, is what we call it, we are really thinking about our grandkids at this point." He said, "A lot of people think about their kids for inheritance. We're already on grandkids." And I said, "Well, Dave calls that legacy. Legacy investing. It's a legacy mindset." There's a lot of things to count other than money, right? I mean, we value a lot of things. David: Sure. I mean, we're in the investment business. We're constantly toggling between present value and future value. We assign resources for a positive outcome in the future,…
Gold and precious metals saw more volatility over the last week, but overall strong in the beginning of this new year. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 5: The price of gold is up 3.6% to $2,862. However, gold did break above $2,900 in the futures market. The price of silver rose up 4.8% to $32.32. This has inched the gold to silver ratio down a couple of points to 88 to 1. Platinum is up about 3% to $1,008, from a week earlier. Palladium up about 3.8% to $1,015, rising from a week earlier as of recording. Looking at the broader markets… The S&P 500 moved sideways, and was at 6,058 as of recording. The US dollar index was down about 0.25% to $107.06. But it did reach $110 before making a pretty significant crash back down. A Strong January for Metals Looking back at January performance, precious metals across the board showed strength in the first month of the year. Gold closed out the month up 6.5%, while silver outperformed gold with a rise of 8.6%. It gets none of the attention, but that's because gold's at all time highs. Platinum rose up 8.1% in January, while palladium led the charge overall, up 10.6% by the end of the month. As discussed in our January 24th show, the commitment of traders continues to bet long on gold. We believe that gold could reach a new record high of $3,000 before we see a decline. Bond Market Stabilizes Despite interest rates shifting down 18%, the bond market looks pretty stable. The short-term one-year and two-year bond yields are down around 20%. But looking at the 10-year bond yield, it has only declined 10%. So despite the massive interest rate rise through 2022 into 2023, tapering off in 2024 and down a little bit at the end of last year, the bond rates have stabilized. The bond market is far bigger than the equities market, and it’s encouraging to see money moving into 10 year Treasurys — an indication that big money is happy with the direction the US is going and perhaps even hedging risk in the equity world. Volatility in Cryptos Bitcoin still looks relatively healthy, but Ethereum had a 36% drop in a day. And while it took a significant bounce up, it did also have a significant decline over the last couple weeks and months in some of the alternative cryptos. So we're seeing rampant volatility in certain places right now. While some investors will continue to beat the drum for this gold alternative, cryptocurrencies still haven’t shown the stability of precious metals. Gold is still the original money — real, tangible, and the true hedge against inflation. Protect Your Money With Gold Gold is a powerful safe haven and insurance policy against economic and political uncertainty. Now is the time to reach out to a trusted McAlvany advisor for precious metals investing advice. They are happy to speak with you about your investment goals and strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Radical Re-think On Dollar Boosts Gold's Future Read Doug Noland's Latest Credit Bubble Bulletin Read Morgan Lewis' Hard Asset Insights "If the US is to be the primary winner in the restructuring of the global system, it will come at the expense of our trade partners. Think about China and over a trillion dollars in Treasuries. Think about Japan. If that cycle has contributed to the hollowing out of our US manufacturing base, the course he's proposing is one that is decidedly dollar negative. So to boost the value of our trade partners' currencies, to devalue the dollar and rebuild our manufacturing base is a 180 from the conditions that have created our current system of trade and drive our import-export balances to the levels we have. Now, clearly we've got trade deficits on a gargantuan scale. I think we're on the cusp of a major monetary regime change." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick along with David McAlvany. Dave, there are times when the guys that we would go to say, "Hey, where is this going to end up?", like Doug Noland or Morgan Lewis or some of the people that help give us instruction. We go, "Okay, so Trump's doing this. Where is this going to end up?" When these guys themselves are saying, "Well, let's analyze it, but I have no idea." That's what it feels like right now, that nobody really knows. What does this look like as we recreate the entire financial and economic structure of America? David: Yeah, the idiom being caught off balance, I think has application because there's not an asset class that hasn't been sort of scratching their head, investors saying, "What exactly does this mean and what am I supposed to do about it?" So yes, there is a sense of being annoyed and disturbed and rattled, and we're seeing that show up in the form of volatility, for sure. Kevin: And that's why it would probably be a good idea for our listeners to go back, if they didn't hear the Tactical Short call with you and Doug last week. It's not only available in recorded form on our website, we'll go ahead and put that on the links, but it's transcripted as well if you'd rather read. David: Yeah. So if you don't want to spend two hours, I think— Last week Doug Noland and I recorded the Tac Short call. There is a brief version of it in the Credit Bubble Bulletin from the weekend. So if you weren't on the call, I insist you take 10 minutes to read this week's Credit Bubble Bulletin. If I told you your financial health depended on it, would you ignore that? And I do think your financial health depends on it. In the show notes, follow the link and just take 10 minutes, read the first part of the weekly Credit Bubble Bulletin. It's the weekly. We do a daily as well, which has the news feeds. So make sure and look for the weekly. Kevin: Well, and just to mention, you're just about to get on a plane, and I love it when you get a chance to go see your dad, I think he's going to be 85 in June, and your mom. But just for the listener's sake, we're recording this one day early, so anything that we say, there'll be a little bit of news events that come before the Wednesday publication of this show. David: Well, the last few weeks, every day there's been news items coming at us fast and furious. But yeah, you're right. My dad's 85 this year. Mom is a spry 78, but with a cancer recovery effort still in play there are even more reasons to be with them whenever possible. So if the events in the call today seem different by the time you're listening, I just wanted you have that context. Kevin: Well, and so let's start putting some things in context because over the last week, we talked about the DeepSeek shock. But we're seeing shocks in a lot of areas: cryptocurrencies, AI, DeepSeek, and honestly a lot of the ramifications from tariffs I'd like to just maybe talk about all of that today. David: Yeah. Last week was DeepSeek and a challenge to the AI narrative....…
Gold and precious metals were largely flat over the week, as broader markets gyrated on AI news from China and the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on January 29: Gold is flat at $2,755 from a week earlier. Gold did touch up into its all-time high territory for a moment, but it didn’t reach its record. Silver is sitting at $30.65 — dead even from a week earlier. Silver did have a mid-week dip down 3%, but recovered by the time of recording. Platinum is up 1.5% to $972 from a week earlier. Palladium is down 1.5%, also at $972 from a week earlier. Looking at movement in the broader markets… The S&P 500 is down about 0.5% to 6,040 this week. It did put in a new high as well as about a 2% decline at one point in the immediate reaction of the AI news coming out of China. The US dollar is also dead even at $108. For the first time in quite a while, the dollar did go below $107 for a short period. Dr. Copper Shows Strength in Economy Looking at a chart of copper prices over the past year, the metal has shown a strong pendant formation. And when we look back over the last four years, copper shows its in a rising trend line. The shiny metal is nicknamed "Dr. Copper" because it is an indicator that reflects the health of the economy. With copper’s price rising steadily, the economy is growing stronger. Trump Picks a Fed Fight Trump is blaming Powell and the Fed for high inflation, and he wants the Fed to reduce the target for interest rates. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve indicated that they would keep interest rates steady and noted the lack of progress toward their 2% inflation rate goal. Cutting rates would further stimulate the economy, increasing the inflation rate and making it harder for people to afford staples like groceries and gas. As we’ve discussed in past episodes, the way to attack inflation is to curb overspending by Congress — an unpopular solution that can kill a political career. One thing that will preserve your purchasing power no matter what move the Fed makes? Turning your dollar bills into gold ounces. Invest in Gold Today Our team of advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Historic ‘24 Excess Portends Precarious 2025 MWM Q4 2024 Tactical Short Conference Call January 30, 2025 David: Good afternoon. This is David McAlvany. We'll go ahead and get started. This is our January 30th, 2025 Tactical Short conference call titled Historic 2024 Excess Portends Precarious 2025. Good afternoon. Thank you for participating in our fourth-quarter recap. As always, thank you to our valued account holders. We so greatly value our client relationships. With first-time listeners on today's call, we'll begin with some general information. And for those of you unfamiliar with Tactical Short, more detailed information is available at mcalvany.com/wealth/tactical-short/. If you'd like to explore next steps for opening a Tactical Short account or investigate how the service might complement your existing equity exposures, it's a good time to do so. The order of our call today will be my comments on performance followed by Doug's market commentary and then Q&A at the tail end. I have a number of questions already submitted. You may submit further questions to Ted via his email ted@mcalvany.com. And also, for inquiries on Tactical Short and its inclusion in your current strategies, you can also submit those inquiries to ted@mcavany.com. The objective of Tactical Short is to provide a professionally managed product that reduces the overall risk in a client's total investment portfolio, while at the same time providing downside protection in a global market backdrop with extraordinary uncertainty and extreme risk. The strategy is designed for separately managed accounts. It's investor friendly with full transparency, flexibility, reasonable fees, and no lockups. We have the flexibility to short stocks and ETFs and our plan has been to on occasion buy liquid listed put options. Shorting entails a unique set of risks we're set apart both by our analytical framework as well as our uncompromising focus on identifying and managing risk. Our Tactical Short strategy began the quarter with short exposure targeted at 80%. The target was held steady throughout the quarter, focused on the challenging backdrop for managing short exposure. The short in the S&P 500 ETF, SPY remains the default position for this high-risk environment. I'll give you an update on performance. Tactical Short accounts after fees returned negative 1.73 during Q4. The S&P 500 returned a positive 2.39. So for the quarter, Tactical Short accounts returned negative 72% of the S&P 500's positive return. As for one-year performance, Tactical Short after fees returned negative 15.32% versus the 25% return of the S&P, with Tactical Short losing 61.3% of the S&P 500's positive return. We regularly track Tactical Short performance versus three actively managed short-fund competitors. First, the Grizzly Short Fund, which returned a negative 1.64 during Q4, and over the past year Grizzly returned a negative 6.74. Ranger Equity Bear returned a negative 5.71 for the quarter, with a negative 7.97 for a one-year return. And Federated Prudent Bear returned a negative 0.68% during Q4 and a negative 12.32 for the one year. Tactical Short outperformed the actively managed bear funds for the quarter on average by 95 basis points. Tactical Short underperformed over the past year by an average 631 basis points. It has significantly outperformed, Tactical Short has, each of the bear funds since inception. From April 7th, 2017 inception through the end of the year, Tactical Short outperformed each of the three competitors by an average of 1,743 basis points or 17.43 percentage points. There are also the passive short index products. ProShares' short S&P 500 ETFs, which returned a negative 70 basis points for the quarter and a negative 13.51% for the past year. And the Rydex Inverse S&P 500 fund, which returned negative 0.53 in Q4, negative 13.08 for the one-year numbers. And then the PIMCO StocksPLUS Short Fund with a Q4 return of negative 15 b...…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
NVIDIA Loses Over Half Trillion In One Day The World Needs Resources The Fed Can't Print DeepSink Is AI's Sputnik Moment "So earnings growth in the AI space, admittedly meteoric if not miraculous through the early quarters of 2024. Earnings growth slowed considerably in late 2024 and as we come into this year. And if the supply chain for AI is put under the microscope and found to be creating overcapacity, you've got an eerie echo from 1999 and 2000." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Before we start, Dave, let's go ahead and remind our listeners about the call with Doug Noland this week. David: Yeah, join Doug Noland and me on Thursday afternoon, 4:00 p.m. Eastern, 2:00 Mountain, for the Tactical Short. This is a Q4 recap conference call, “Historic ’24 Excess Portends Precarious 2025.” I announced this call three weeks ago, and the word "precarious” seemed out of place. The comment might not have made sense. Kevin: A little precarious now, though, huh? David: Yeah. Kevin: Yeah. David: Do market conditions seemed more precarious? I think so. Perceptions shift, and with them market pricing does as well. I highly recommend that you join us. If you are inadequately hedged, you can still remedy that. Get informed, register for the call, submit your questions ahead of time, and we'll do our best to address specific issues following the formal remarks. Short exposure has, as you might expect, been the inverse to the markets as they've been rising in recent years. You may not care about short exposure in a rising market without limits, but what about the limits? And what about a falling market? Are you adequately liquid? Do you have a form of financial insurance in place? We look forward to your presence on Thursday's call. Kevin: It's important to talk about hedges. I was thinking this week, Dave, when we saw DeepSeek come out. We can talk about that through the show, but I love South Pole history. I love Ernest Shackleton, or Robert Falcon Scott, or Roald Amundsen, and it reminded me of the story. You probably remember this, but in January of 1912, a very well-stocked team of 65, it started with 65 people. The last five to push to the South Pole for the English, it was Robert Falcon Scott, and four other guys. 65 people, hardware heavy. They had dogs, they had ponies, they had motors that they had to move, but there was a shock when they got there on January 17th, 1912. A Norwegian team had gotten there first. David: Almost a month earlier. Kevin: A month earlier, and they had 19 guys—19 in, 19 out. No one was lost. The Norwegians beat them. It was very light on the hardware. Scott was heavy on the hardware, and unfortunately the five that went in and came back out, all five were lost for the Scott team. So I'm wondering, Dave, if NVIDIA isn't a little bit like the Scott team right now, hardware heavy, and then you had DeepSeek this last week, come in and say, "Hey, you don't need that much hardware." David: Well, it's exactly right. You had a decline of $589 billion in a single day, and that marks the greatest concentrated single-company loss in financial history— Kevin: Wow. David: —in a 24-hour period. Kevin: Almost $600 billion lost. David: Forbes reports, "NVIDIA's nearly $600 billion market cap loss Monday is larger than the individual market values of all but 13 American companies. More than the market cap of titans like health insurer United Health, oil giant ExxonMobil, and retailer Costco. Kevin: Wow. David: And at issue, if Chinese company DeepSeek can do what the large language models do at a fraction of the cost with a fraction of the hardware, then you're looking at the AI supply chain in that Wile E. Coyote moment. Kevin: Wow. David: Gravity is in effect, and so the claim is that this more efficient open-source application was built for under $6 million, uses fewer than 10,…
Gold and precious metals continue their march higher this week, buoyed by continued enthusiasm for the new US president and administration. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on January 23: The price of gold is up 2.5%, sitting at around $2,756. That’s only about $35 away from its previous all-time high. The price of silver is up around 0.9% at $30.85. Platinum is up 2.8%, to $960. Palladium is up 3.9% at $1000, just slightly below platinum. Looking at the broader market… The S&P 500 is up about 2% this week to 6,091. The US dollar is down a little over 1% at $108.22. Big Money Bets on Gold Rise The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows the aggregate holdings of different participants in the U.S. futures market. These are compiled and published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the U.S. COT reports detail how many long, short, and spread positions make up the open interest. Looking at a recent report, we see that far more institutional investors have been betting long on gold futures. Their bets have paid off handsomely, as gold has recovered from its dip to rise back up to record levels. But will the managed money continue to speculate that gold will go up? Or will they start taking profits? Of course, it’s impossible to predict exactly how the price of gold will change. But here are a few scenarios to consider. Scenario 1: A Mild Selloff If there is an unwinding of those managed money speculative bets, it’s possible that we’ll see gold drop down closer to the lows seen in post-election November and December — potentially around the $2,500 per ounce range. If this happens, gold could trade sideways for a few months. Scenario 2: A Shallow Correction If instead there’s more of a correction, we might see gold in the intermediate term fall to a floor. A shallow correction would look like gold dropping to $2,350 per ounce. A deeper correction might be closer to where gold was during the post-pandemic highs, around $2,075. If silver decides to hold around its current level, that would open up a potential gold to silver ratio trade. That’s because the gold to silver ratio would be closer to 52:1 in this case. However, it looks less likely that this scenario would happen. Scenario 3: Untested Territory There’s a good possibility that a correction might not happen at all. And instead, gold would push up to new high levels into uncharted territory. If this happens, it’s possible that gold could climb to a new high around $3,500 per ounce. Looking at recent charting patterns, it is possible that gold could reach these new highs. Which means that investors waiting on the sidelines to catch the next dip would continue to miss out. Should you buy gold right now? The best way to know what would work for you is to consult a trusted, experienced precious metals professional. Get Started With Expert Advice Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Executive Orders Signal Immediate Change Mr. Bond Vigilante Still Has The Strongest Say Uncertainty The Best Driver To Gold "So returning to the executive orders, at the end of page 2, I was saying, "Wow." At the end of page 5, each page with at least 10 executive orders on it, it was awe-inspiring, ambitious in scope, sure to offend, and FDR and Reagan both came to mind. Massive change, very disruptive to the status quo. From a market perspective, I kept thinking disruption, uncertainty. These are things that drive market volatility." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, all I can describe is sensory overload. I think about punk rock concerts back in the 1970s through the mid '80s. You had the bright lights, the strobes, you had the loud music, you had all these different things going on, which purposely are trying to create sensory overload. I wasn't really part of that movement, but I remember getting my pilot's license. And the guy who was checking me out was trying to do the same thing while I was flying a plane. Now, if I'm the markets right now, whether you're happy about Trump, whether you're not happy about Trump, but if I'm the markets, how in the world do I know what to do next? David: It's an amazing week. Normally on MLK day, I read a passage from MLK, Jr. and discuss it with my kids. Not this year. We've got the inauguration, the announcement of sweeping changes into the late hours of the evening. I was reading word for word the five pages of links to the new executive orders, redirecting the usual practice and had me a little bit distracted. So we've got the rescindment of 78 Biden-era executive actions. The second executive order stopped bureaucrats from issuing new regulations. The third mandated federal workers return to offices. Imagine that. Kevin: You got to go to work. David: I know. Kevin: You got to go to work. David: Ending government censorship, freezing hiring of the IRS agents, ending some birthright citizenships, signing pardons for 1,500 Jan. 6 prisoners, and then six commutations as a part of that. It goes on and on. Kevin: I told you, bright lights, strobe lights, sounds, it's all happening all at once. David: Yeah. Kevin: And it's presidential. I mean, these are executive orders, Dave. Nobody's voting on this. David: The one word I would apply to the markets going forward—reflecting on the knowns and the unknowns, the intended changes, and really the actual paths forward—is the word volatility. Kevin: Oh, sure. Well, what do you do when you have sensory overload? And again, there may be many really great long-term outcomes coming out of this, but what do you do in the meantime while things are shifting back and forth? David: I'm trying to replay in my mind Sid Vicious soundtracks, cassette tapes—because it would've been a cassette tape. The best way of describing the financial markets in the current context is like a vast casino. And again, you talk about sensory overload. Vegas has gotten a little bit better, even leaving the airport's not quite as loud as it used to be. But our current context is like a casino. You've got high stakes bets. They're rolling through constantly. You've got currency bets and fixed income bets and equity and option bets, cryptocurrency and commodity bets. And all of these bets are based on economic inputs. They're based on external factors which are deemed to tilt the odds in the favor of a certain outcome. Make no mistake, it is a casino and it's no longer clear to the currency players what those external factors are going to be. It's no longer clear to the fixed income players, the options traders, the commodity traders, and the equity operators just how those external factors are going to impact pricing. Kevin: Well, how about crypto? I mean, crypto just has one direction, doesn't it? David: Well,…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
The markets are sitting with bated breath ahead of the inauguration of President Trump. However, precious metals continue to show strength. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of this recording, January 15: The price of gold is up 1.3%, sitting at around $2,695. The price of silver is up 1.8% at $30.66. It is now comfortably above the $30 mark. Platinum is down 3.3%, to $934. But in the middle of the week, it did hit a high that it hadn’t reached since November 2024. Platinum is stair-stepping up. Palladium is up 5.2%, a big move up the day of recording. at $924, just slightly below platinum. Looking at the broader market… The S&P 500 is up about 1.1% this week to 5,954. It is on an upswing of a downward movement, as it has been stair-stepping down. The US dollar is even this week, hovering around $109.20. But the dollar did have an intraweek high as it broke above $110. If we could look into a crystal ball and predict the future, the outlook right now is one of great optimism There’s a consistent pattern that we’re following according to our election market expectation show. The honeymoon is over, and the markets are settling back into reality — that is, back into the trends that they were in before the election. Economic Watch The CPI report for December indicated that inflation is still hot, rising up 2.9% over the year. The core CPI figure, tracking food and energy prices, rose 0.2%. The markets reacted with enthusiasm, hoping for an additional rate cut by the Fed. The DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ rose up around 2% on the news. Over the last few days, bond yields have been declining while prices continue to rise. Even though yields have declined, bonds appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of the inaugration. Gold to $3,000? For people holding gold, the fundamentals look good. We predict that we’ll be seeing gold peeking above $3,000 per ounce this spring. Gold rising up to $3,000 per ounce in 2025 is a conservative estimate, because that would be a 10% gain at its current price. If you look back over the last 50 years, you will see that gold has been gaining an average of 8.5% - 10% per year. Gold: Silver Ratio Trades As for an upcoming ratio trade between gold and silver, it will depend on whether the ratio widens or narrows to a favorable ratio. The price of silver dipped below $30 a bit earlier in the week. However, silver has bounced back strongly above $30. Silver still has a lot of upside potential, and it is undervalued right now. Industrial demand for silver continues to grow, especially with the development of new EV batteries that rely heavily on the white metal for their manufacturing. There’s also the potential for internal ratio trades — such as trading silver bars for junk silver or silver American eagles. Sometimes, the premiums on one product are significantly lower than for another product, and a trade will give you more ounces without paying for them. Get Started With Expert Advice Will there be a new ratio-trading opportunity coming up this year for you? The best way to know what your ideal next trade would look like is to speak with your McAlvany financial advisor. Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
AI Tech Bubble Says, "Feed Me"! How Will Trump Respond To Financial Instability? The Fed Can't Get Longer Maturity Interest Rates To Go Down "This is one of the factors which is super bullish for gold. Bond markets are signaling a divergence for monetary policy, and implicitly saying that either fiscal commitments are already too great or inflation is coming back. Perhaps it's a combination of the two, but either way, yields are telling you where rates are headed next, and it's not lower. The implication is that financial market stability is very much in the cross hairs." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, I was just going back and looking at discussions we've had in the past on catastrophe math. Zeeman made that very famous back in the 1960s, 1970s, and what it basically boils down to is, certain factors build to a tension point, like a bridge. A bridge may work for 40 or 45 years and then suddenly collapse. And the question is, is there any math behind that? Is there any predictability in the timing behind that? And you've just brought up in our meeting the sand pile effect, same type of thing. Let's talk about that a little bit because there are some tensions building right now in one direction that can't hold forever. David: Well, first of all, welcome back. You had more eventful weekend than I did, and I'm glad you're in— Kevin: Speaking of catastrophe. Yeah. David: Yeah. You're in good repair, stitches and all. Kevin: Yeah. Yeah, emergency appendectomy, but boy, am I happy that we have a medical system that can actually get that kind of thing out. David: Well, looking ahead to two weeks out, we can put it on the calendar. January 30th, Doug and I will tackle perhaps the toughest analytical mashup ever on our quarterly Tactical Short call. Starting 2025, there is a confluence of major concerns—and this is to your point, Kevin. When you start looking at the various factors, you don't know, considering that sand pile effect, which grain is the culprit for the slide, but there's a confluence of major concerns, whether it's fiscal, economic, financial market—encompassing both equities and bonds, geopolitical and strategic considerations that make this Tactical Short call a feast for the inquisitive. And, I think, full of opportunity, if you are observant and in the markets and agile, assuming you can get a few of these macro themes right. I think the difference could be between your best performance in a calendar year or your worst, and 2025 is shaping up to be very, very interesting. Of great consequence long-term are the impacts on society as a larger expression of your own balance sheet expansion or balance sheet compression because there is a mirror, there is an echo, a reflection. Kevin: Yeah. We just heard Morgan give the update to our meeting today, and he said we have two major, major issues right now, inflation and a debt problem, the interest that we have to pay on our debt. And he calls that a debt spiral. It gets to the point where the Federal Reserve has lost control and we talk about catastrophe. You can have inflation and manage inflation if you don't have too much of a debt problem. You can have a debt problem if you don't have inflation, but when the two come together, it creates a major issue. And I know you've got some other major issues. I would imagine one of the issues you guys are going to talk about is the bond market, which reflects that. David: Well, again, one of the key issues there is with debt being at the level it's at, typically the way that you would fight inflation is by raising rates, except if you're raising rates because of how much debt we already have in play, the interest component is already at an overwhelming level. So to raise interest rates just piles on even more to the deficit via the interest component. And that is unique because typically a debt crisis can...…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Precious metals started the year strong, with prices rising higher across the board. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of January 9: The price of gold is up 1.2% currently sitting at around $2,656. Looking back at 2024, gold ended last year strong — moving up about 27% throughout the year. The price of silver is up 4% to $30.11 so far in 2025. Silver rose up 22% in 2024, a good year though not quite as strong as gold. Platinum is up 8% so far in 2025, to $968. In 2024, platinum was actually down 10% — so now it’s about flat from a year earlier. Palladium is up about 2% so far in 2025 at $924, just slightly below platinum. Looking at the broader market… The S&P 500 is up about 1% this week, but it did push up about 24% last year. The US dollar is up about 0.5% to $109.20, also starting the year strong. The dollar index was up about 7% in 2024. Dollar, Gold in Lockstep It is very unusual to have a strong gold market coupled with a strong dollar market. They usually have an inverse relationship, so this is a strange time. In case you missed it, we did a deep dive into the fundamentals of gold investing on our last show. This explains more about how gold moves compared to other asset classes. Inflation Watch It appears as if the market is pricing in expected inflation. If you look at the deficit from the first fiscal quarter of 2024 to the first fiscal quarter of 2025, the US deficit is up over 60% from where it was a year ago. And it looks like it will continue along the same trajectory. The US has a strong economy. Commodity prices are rising according to CPI numbers and inflation is starting to rise. Trump will likely want the Fed to cut interest rates at their meeting in January. A rate cut would drive the credit markets, borrowing and potentially spending. But analysts have noted that there’s less than a 50% change of a rate cut in January because the economic numbers aren’t indicating a rate cut is needed. Gold to Silver Ratio at 90:1 It’s important to note that the gold to silver ratio has shifted again to 90:1 at the close of 2024. The last six times that the ratio has widened that much, there has been a massive rally in silver. The minimum rally in 2024 was a 26% move in the price of silver. In the largest rally, the price of silver gained 79%. So this is a massive opportunity to purchase silver now and see big gains in the near future. Buying Opportunities For silver, the most intriguing product right now is junk silver. Even though silver has been flat to down through the close of 2024, the premiums have come down in that particular product. Junk silver is less per ounce now than the big thousand ounce silver bullion bar. Looking at the collectible gold coin market, US Double Eagles are priced at the same price per coin as Gold Eagles. Fractional European 100-year-old coins are in some instances cheaper than one ounce Gold Eagles. There are some great values right now — if you know where to look. Get Started With Expert Advice Working with an expert in precious metals will help you find the best buying opportunities. If you haven’t had a complimentary meeting with an advisor at McAlvany Precious Metals to talk through your financial objectives, now is a great time to start. Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Interest Rates Rise In Worldwide Competition For Liquidity Mag 7 Stocks Represent 70% Of Trading Volume Gold & Dollar Rise In 2024, What Does That Mean? "Yeah. I mean, breadth is the idea of how spread out the participation is in a market move to higher levels. Are all boats rising with the tide or just a few? And when you have narrow breadth, it's just a few names participating. It's not a good sign when breadth is narrow in only a few names—70% of trading volume in seven names, 20% of global market cap. Breadth this narrow is, to say the least, worrying." - David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, where the holidays fell this year—Christmas on a Wednesday, New Year's on a Wednesday—with my travel plans, with my kids' travel plans, I honestly feel like, well, happy New Year. It feels like the holiday was about a month. It was wonderful. It was wonderful. But gosh, it's sort of nice to be back in the pattern. David: It is good to be back. I love the holidays. I love the guests and hosting parties. I love the family time and the change of pace. And I love getting back to routines as well. As the new year starts, there are the common reflections on the past year and anticipations or goal setting for the new year. And everybody has prognostications of what will be in 2025. I feel this with clients, the number of requests to do financial planning reviews, how are we doing. It increases dramatically in the first quarter. And I encourage you to do that as well. The next four years are likely to have surprises geopolitically, economically, and in the financial markets. And I think getting your bearings is a good idea. So whether it's a quick look at how you're balancing liquidity, precious metals, growth and income assets, real estate, or factoring in new situations like retirement, a new job, other new variables, our staff are a great resource to bring perspective and counsel. Kevin: Well, and you know, Dave, I dream triangles. Okay? I love the triangle, the foundation, the preservation element, and then of course the left side, which has to do with growth and income, and the right side, your cash savings. And that's what I encourage my clients to do. I have, I think, trained— We talk about habits and how you can train yourself in habits. You can also help train others to have good habits. I've been really thinking about this. One of the great habits of what we've done is we draw triangles and we do that analysis, the how-we-are-doing analysis. So that's what I would encourage our clients to do too. I've got my clients calling me right now and saying, "Hey, let's do a triangle update." David: Yeah, I think probably the underemphasized portion of the perspective triangle for most investors is the metals piece. We think of it as insurance, that's the role that it plays in an overall portfolio. From a practical standpoint, it's there as a reserve. And you don't know you need the reserves until you need the reserves. We're watching a lot of currency volatility, 2024, and that's a big question. When do these countries who are defending their currency, supporting their currency with tens of billions of dollars, sometimes in a week, when do they run thin on reserves? That's when you end up with real currency crisis. You can get through any kind of crisis—whether it's an emotional crisis, a spiritual crisis, a family crisis, a financial crisis—if you're adequately reserved, and I think that's worth taking stock of. Kevin: You know, Dave, that's a great point as far as reserves emotionally, spiritually, financially. I remember I was walking out to the car the other day, and sometimes in the first of the year I can also feel a heaviness. It's like, "Wow, what have I got to do this year? There's things I've got to do." I felt this heaviness, and I realized I had forgotten to be thankful.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Morgan Lewis answers your question on Gold Recycling/Dollar Recycling Philip Wortman on Crypto and Gold What indicators does David McAlvany look at consistently? Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. Happy New Year! I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, I sure enjoyed the questions last week, Dave, and look forward to what you have to say on the questions this week. We're never disappointed, are we? David: No, and I'm grateful to be closing out another year with the Weekly Commentary. Kevin, thank you for your efforts throughout the year. I enjoy the engagement with our audience and am grateful for the questions that have been sent in. You know, some of the questions are beyond what I have the capability to answer, so we bring in Philip Wortman and Morgan Lewis to tackle a couple of the ones that are just right down their alley. Kevin: And I'm looking forward to that. Well, tell you what, let's just go ahead and get started. Jeff asks, "Do you see the stock market correcting, and if so, when will that happen? And will it be a minor correction or a large pullback?" The second part of the question is the commercial real estate market, Dave, in America. "Is it still in trouble? If so, how will that affect the banking system? And thanks for your efforts in putting the weekly podcast together." That was Jeff. David: The answer is yes. No idea when we have a market correction. We just know the context is set, and by any measure valuation, it will happen. When is, of course, the billion-dollar question. A '30s-style crash? I think that's less likely. A '70s-style crash, where performance in real inflation-adjusted terms ends up over a course of time being as grave as the 1930s? I think that kind of pressured environment is more probable. So it's either large and all at once, or less extreme—minor, if you want to think of it in those terms—extended, and excruciating over time because of the impact of inflation. Commercial real estate, there are really big refinance needs in 2025. Estimates are between one and two trillion dollars, and so it makes sense that we would see pressure in commercial real estate. But I think it obviously depends on liquidity dynamics at the time. Your ability to refinance that debt, if it is with commercial lenders or if it's in the private markets, it all depends on the current liquidity dynamics and financial market conditions at that time. Part of the commercial real estate market is finding a bottom, part of the commercial real estate market has yet to materially correct. So if we assume that there is another leg or another segment within that asset class—commercial real estate—then I think your banks—commercial banks—will see a lot of stress on their CRE portfolios. Kevin: Dave, this next question reminds me of a conversation I had with a client the other day. He said he's got a Wednesday morning ritual. He pours a cup of coffee, he listens to the Commentary every Wednesday, and I was surprised at how many people do that. They have rituals for actually sitting down and listening. So James—this question reminded me of this—he said, "It's been great listening to the show over the last few months. It's become part of my Wednesday morning routine at this point. I've got a few questions, no pressure to answer any or all of them." Dave, I know you're probably going to answer them, so I'll ask you the first one. "Are there any often overlooked market indicators that you'll be paying attention to in 2025?" David: Well, I love the rituals. It also reminds me of a friend of ours, a client of ours in Mexico, and that's a common thing. Friday evening at the end of a work week, popcorn, a glass of wine, and the Weekly Commentary. Kevin: That sounds like fun. David: And he and his wife have been doing that for the better part of 15 years. Kevin: Wow. Wow. So what are you looking at in 2025? David: Yeah. Yeah,…
With this mid-week Christmas break, we won’t be going into the usual analysis as we normally do. Instead, we’re going to dive deeper into the fundamentals and a recap of why gold is a great investment tool. Regardless of what will happen economically or geopolitically, some things don't change and those fundamentals are what really move the gold price. Despite a lot of volatility in different investment categories and what policy makers do, gold responds and reacts to underlying fundamentals. Who Buys Gold These Days? There’s a misconception that people who buy gold are somewhat “weird.” And while you might hold a greater percentage of your portfolio in gold if you lose faith in the system, there’s nothing strange about owning gold. Investors buy gold because they want to have real money that’s valued anywhere. Gold is recognized everywhere around the world. You can get on an airplane and fly anywhere in the world, hold up a gold coin and smile. Even if you don’t speak the language, people will know that you’re friendly and you have money. It’s a universal language. Preserves Your Purchasing Power Gold today will buy what it buys in five years regardless of the price. It's a constant store of value. It hasn't changed. Our friend Kevin Orrick on our McAlvany Weekly Commentary talks about how an ounce of gold buys a loaf of bread every day for a year. It's done that for thousands of years, and it still does today. If you’re considering owning gold, it’s smart to think of it as a legacy investment, something that you can hold. Insurance for Your Portfolio Gold is often described as insurance for the rest of the portfolio, but aside from the Justin Case, you went into all these different things that are, because it's guaranteed. Just look at the track record of gold over the years, and you’ll see that it is asset preservation. Tangible and Real Gold gets you out of “paper promise” assets into a tangible commodity. We're not talking about ETFs, mining shares or stocks. We're talking about owning physical coins and bars in various forms in and through various vehicles. It could be in your IRA or in a regular account in a vault. Tangible precious metals also provide a privacy component in the instance that you are holding it at home. What Moves the Gold Price? Most factors that move the price of gold have to do with fear or greed. For example, geopolitical fears such as global instability and threats of war — when the future looks uncertain, fear drives demand and increases the price. Another example is central bank demand — What do they know that we don't know? Why are they stocking up on gold? Obviously they're looking at the same things we see, but thinking, “wow, I don't like what I see. I think I'm going to increase my allocation to gold.” How Much Gold Should You Own? If you want to fund your retirement with gold, the best way to think about it is how much you will spend per month. What's your burn rate? You need to know your projection as well — do you need something like a 10 year or a 20 year annuity? When do you want to retire? You can then put that amount into ounces of gold. For example, if you need two ounces or three ounces a month to live, you start accumulating that ounce by ounce. The other way to look at owning precious metals in our Investment Triangle model. A third of your liquid wealth should be in physical gold. A third on the left hand side of the triangle is for growth and income. A third on the right hand side of the triangle is liquid Add Gold Ounces Today Call us at (800) 525-9556 so we can speak with you individually and walk through your own portfolio. Our team of experts can help you understand the whys and the hows with acquiring gold.…
Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. Merry Christmas and happy Hanukkah. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, it's fun recording these programs. I had lunch with your son, who is a freshman in college, and I told him, "I'm thinking back 25 years, 26 years when we had lunch together, and what's happened, and then, before that, me working for your dad." What's amazing is these conversations have turned into the Weekly Commentary. And as I was talking to your son, I was thinking, wow, no wonder. There's so many interesting things to talk about, books, the things that we've studied, just our thoughts and dreams moving forward. The questions that our clients ask, I was reading through them and I was thinking, they're really family. Don't you feel like this is sort of family? David: Oh, I do. It's an extended conversation. It's a lot of what we experience, the two of us, when we get together for the regular Commentary meetings on a Monday afternoon and evening. Some of the questions are beyond what I have the capability to answer, so this will be the first Q&A that we bring in Philip Wortman and Morgan Lewis to tackle a couple of the ones that are just right down their alley. Kevin: I'm looking forward to that. Well, tell you what? Let's just go ahead and get started. And I hate to start saying that John Maynard Keynes might be right on something, but here's the question, "Dear Kevin and David, John Maynard Keynes was a complex human, but one thing he got absolutely right was the relationship between macroeconomics and wars. You and Doug (Doug Noland) have been warning of macro risks in China for years now, and we see those warnings playing out in real time. However, as China's economy falters, so does their ability to invade Taiwan. Are the Chinese still serious, and are they a serious military threat to Taiwan? Thanks, Seth." David: Well, thank you Seth. Yes, the Chinese economy has experienced much slower growth, and their primary source of growth has been impaired for many years from the real estate sector. And even now we're beginning to see yields on those companies, so their borrowing costs—numbers that you just can't even wrap your minds around. The very best case scenario is Vanke going from 17.5% to 21.5% just in the last two weeks. And then, on top of that, you've got other yields for companies that are 500%, 1,000%, 12,000%, and higher. So it's basically saying, in that sector, is game over. They do still maintain GDP growth well above that of the U.S. Even if you discount the official statistics by 30 or 40%, I would argue that the case for war does not go away. In fact, it increases with economic desperation. There's the aspect of public distraction on the one hand, playing to nationalist themes, and there's also the positive impact to youth employment, what is today an unemployment problem, both inside the military via conscription and in manufacturing employment growth, as well, for military hardware. So discouraged and unemployed youth need purpose. Low levels of inflation in China also leave them with the latitude to increase spending and money printing with less immediate negative impact to their consumers. Gas war is inflationary, so that's one other aspect of that John Maynard Keynes macroeconomic connection between war and the economy and macroeconomics, but the deflationary malaise they've been locked in is creating a dynamic which increases social and political pressure domestically. Thus far, they've not announced any radical fiscal measures to break that trend, and so I think it's worth keeping in mind that war could very well be an opportunity to redirect that negative attention. I think they understand the global demand for semiconductors and other manufactured goods from Taiwan. They may be inclined to invade Taiwan as if it were a hostile takeover of an industry or company. Not everyone's happy about a change in management, but your suppliers,…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
1 Markets React Sharply to Fed’s Rate Cut: What It Means for Gold 10:20
10:20 나중에 재생 나중에 재생 리스트 좋아요 좋아요10:20
나중에 재생 나중에 재생 리스트 좋아요 좋아요Remarks from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting after an expected rate cut rocked the markets, with major indexes falling across the board. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of December 18: The price of gold dropped to $2,560, or over $100 from a week ago. However, it’s still holding above the November lows and nowhere near longer-term correction levels. The price of silver broke below $30, dropping to around $29.21. It did break below short-term support levels and to the deep 786 fibonacci level on the market push since August. The US dollar rallied sharply above $108 after the Fed announcement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.6% or 1,123 points. The S&P 500 fell 2.9% on the news. The Nasdaq Composite declined 3.5%, its worst day since July. The Dow Transportation Index fell 2.75% on the fed funds news. It was down over 10% since its November 25 high. Powell Rattles Investors Sentiment around the Fed’s expected 0.25% rate cut was dampened by hawkish remarks from the Fed Chairman. Markets expected to see four additional rate cuts in 2025, and were surprised when Jerome Powell remarked that, “We think the economy is in a really good place.” In one instance, the Fed noted that there would be at most two more cuts. A cut in the federal funds rate does help make banks more competitive. However, it has not translated into a decline in the 10-year yield on Treasurys. Nor has it dropped the 30-year mortgage rate to stimulate the housing market. Precious metals also declined, opening up a potential buying opportunity for investors looking to add to their ounces of gold and silver. Gold to Silver Ratio Widens With the latest dip in the gold and silver prices, the silver to gold ratio now stands at 88 to one. With silver’s drop disproportionately larger compared to gold, this is a new opportunity for investors to take a position in silver. Adding more ounces of silver on a dip will potentially open up a ratio trade to shift silver ounces into gold when the ratio narrows again. Typically, when the ratio widens as much as 90 ounces of silver equal to one ounce of gold, silver will then rally. So this is a rare time to get in at a good price. Year-End Fundamentals Wrap If you want to know a little bit more about why gold reacts the way it does, sometimes predictably, sometimes unpredictably, we'll discuss it next week. We will go into a deep dive on what causes the gold price to move in the short and the long term, and all those underlying fundamentals. Call for Expert Guidance The McAlvany Precious Metals advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
S&P 500: More Declines Than Advances Every Day In December China Adds 160,000 oz of Gold Send Questions To info@mcalvany.com "We're at this moment where, again, credibility gets thrown out the window for the Fed. And I think that is the final stage of a bull market in metals, where your central bank credibility is lost and investors go scrambling in an effort to survive a loss of purchasing power. And I think in this case, you're also talking about ramifications that are well outside of any central bank's control, and that is geopolitical issues." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Dave, before we start, let's just remind our listeners this is the last day to submit questions for our upcoming question and answer programs over the next two weeks. So those questions can be sent to: David: Info@mcalvany.com. Kevin: Yeah, info@mcalvany.com. Well, I'll tell you what? This has been a great week. I feel like I lived a month through this week just because of your birthday. What an amazing celebration at your house, various nights. But I was very honored to be invited to meet some of the people that you knew back in college, Dave, relationships that you've kept going all these years. David: Well, actually we had friends that came into town and some of those relationships go back 50 years. So we covered every decade from when I was a wee small lad to still a truncated and underdeveloped wee small lad. I was a late bloomer, so it was about college before I actually added a little bit of height. So then the timeframe of developing college friends and then professional friends, and it was a phenomenal week. Kevin: Dave, it wouldn't surprise our listeners to know that the people who did fly in for your birthday, who you had affected earlier in life, [The Intentional] Legacy is the name of the book that you wrote about—just what we're all about. And I listened to your friends. Some of them I had heard about, but I had never met. And I listened to them each saying, "Hey, this is how you affected my life." And it was very poignant because I realized there's just been a lot to you all the way back. And at the end of the evening with these friends who had known you, well, one of them had known you since you were a child. He's a professional musician. And he pulled a guitar off the wall, very impromptu. He took the first two minutes to tune a very out-of-tune guitar—so it was very impromptu. But what he did was amazing to me. He sang the various stories that people had told throughout the night at the dinner table. He wrote a song and sang it. I could tell it truly was a gift, but talk about a poignant moment. That was completely unexpected, and I really had no idea somebody could do that. I mean, I don't think he forgot a single story. David: Yeah, it was very special. Family and friendship have played a central part in the last five decades, and I can't imagine the future much different than that. So spending time with friends from across the country, very special week. Kevin: Okay, so we're going to get into business here. This is the week of the Fed decision. And inflation hasn't gone away, Dave, and things feel awfully loose for loosening of the interest rate. What do you think? David: We are in a new world. People know who Jerome Powell is. There was a day when the Fed chief was anonymous. Nobody took the time. Nobody really cared. But this week is particularly important. The next Fed decision is here. The bond market's pricing in 97% probability of a 25 basis point cut, a quarter of a point. But the interesting trend remains that in spite of rate cuts dating back to September when this cycle started, interest rates like the 10-Year Treasury have been on the rise. So 3.63 on the 10-year was the yield then, in September, and reached a peak this week of 4.44. So 79, 81 basis points roughly,…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Rapid Middle East Re-Shuffle With Assad's Exit Invisible Hand Of Free Markets VS Tariff Strategy Send Questions For Q&A Program To info@mcalvany.com "There's a long period of status quo. It was upturned quickly. In this case, you had the Gaza conflict in Israel's engagement with Hamas and Hezbollah. And then we have the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which, you look at these two factors, and they actually inadvertently blew up the 54-year-old regime in Syria. Without Hezbollah on the ground, without Russia in the sky, Assad could not keep the reins of power. So, yeah, timing is everything. Things change quickly, and I think we have to be honest with ourselves when things do change." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, today is your 50th birthday, and sorry, I just have to betray the age, but it's pretty darned exciting to have you sitting here and realize that I've known you since, what, you were 12. David: It's been a few years. Kevin: We've had a few Taliskers together. You studied for your pilot's license over at our house when you were just— David: You taught me how to fly-fish. Kevin: Fly-fishing. That's exactly right. But I couldn't wait. I had to give it to you unwrapped. I got you a copy, and one of our clients actually knows about this. I've shared with him just the other day that I found a copy of The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, written in 1776, but this was the published date: 1818. It's an amazing copy. You can tell the people who owned it ahead of you, Dave, from 1818 on. They treasured the book because they have marginalia in there and notes to themselves and little clips from articles and magazines from the 1800s that they pasted into the book that added to the commentary of the book. So I was just extremely excited to have you see this. David: It makes me wonder what happens to the books that I've read and the notes that I've made in those books. I don't know that anyone will appreciate the conversations that I've had with the authors, the way I have enjoyed and engaged and appreciated them. Kevin: As you write marginalia in your books. David: Yeah. But I mean, there is a hope that, like this, a couple centuries later, you get to look and say, that's the point, isn't it? Here's the conversation. Here's what he picks up. There's the debate. He nailed it. This is where he engages with the author. And no, Smith's not right on that point. So the engagement, the challenge, the debate, it's pretty cool to see it in the margins. Kevin: Well, and we've been talking about, with Trump coming in there are a lot of applicable things that we can be looking at because right now there's talk here in America of tariffs. Adam Smith addressed tariffs, and you've interviewed Michael Pettis, who recently has written about tariffs, and I don't know that he necessarily agrees with Adam Smith in all occasions. And so wouldn't it be fun if the two could debate each other and actually say, okay, Adam Smith's saying, "No, it's the invisible hand, not the government." And Pettis going, "No. Sometimes the government can get away with it." What do you think? David: Yeah, well, just as a reminder, real quick before we dive in there, we have our Q&A coming up, and so if you would submit questions, would love to engage with you as best we can. Send those over to info@mcalvany.com. That's info@mcalvany.com. If there are questions of a metaphysical nature, I probably will leave those for a private conversation with you. Let's schedule some time. If it's economics, if it's finance, if it's international relations, public policies— Kevin: Scotch recommendations. David: Oh, certainly, we can certainly— Yeah, the merits of peat, let me tell you. Kevin: But talking about timing, what kind of week do we have? What kind of month do we have? We've got a new president coming in here in just a month or a little ...…
Precious metals slow down their climb, but continue to show strength after the Thanksgiving break in the US. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of December 4: The price of gold inched up about $12 from the previous week, still hovering around $2650. The price of silver is up 4% or $1.20 from a week earlier, to around $31.50. Platinum up about $17, or a little under 2% from the previous week. Palladium about $8, or just under 1% from last week. Looking at the broader markets, most of the major indices are sitting at new, strong highs leading into the holiday season. The S&P 500 is up 81 points, or 1.3% from the previous week. The only exception is the Down Transportation index. The Dow Transports is down 470 points, 2.5%, from the previous week. They are almost back to the November 2021 all-time highs. Gold Continues Predicted Path As we discussed before, the price of gold dropped 13% during the last Republican president term in 2016. But six months later, it rebounded and caught back up to where it was trending. Now that Trump has been elected again in 2024, we are seeing a similar trend. While gold hasn’t dropped quite as much yet, the price has declined about 9% since election day. Looking back further, that’s about a 50% retracement in this last breakout pattern. And while there’s still a chance that gold will drop further in the short term, we don’t expect the lower prices to last. It’s likely that gold will rebound in 2025 and reach a new all-time high around $3,000 or higher. Trump, Musk and Spending Cuts The new administration has promised to make dramatic changes to help reduce excessive spending that’s contributed to the massive US debt. To that end, Trump is bringing in Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy for a newly-created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). These two entrepreneurs are tasked with cutting wasteful spending and finding ways to restructure the bloated bureaucracy. It remains to be seen what they will actually cut. Meanwhile, Trump is also pushing for additional interest rate cuts to get more money back in the hands of the people. He is essentially ignoring the long-term inflation problem with a short-term solution that will make his administration look good. If they really want to get the problem under control, they’ll need to do what no one wants to admit needs to be done — and that’s cutting spending AND raising taxes. When to Buy Gold? Given the geopolitical situation and the US financial situation, it makes sense to begin dollar cost averaging ounces of gold with cash sitting on the sidelines. Gold is not affected by inflation, and it allows investors to preserve the purchasing power of their hard-earned money. Purchased consistently every two weeks, it allows investors to stockpile ounces of gold over time. Build Your Gold “Retirement Annuity” How many ounces do you feel like you need to have set aside when you come to retirement? Do you expect to need a 10-year or a 20-year “gold annuity”? For example, if you know that you’ll need two ounces of gold each month to cover expenses, you can plan how many ounces you will need to accumulate. Now is the time to start stacking ounces of gold. The easiest way to do it is to automate your gold and silver investments through our Vaulted app. Get Guidance from an Expert If you haven’t had a meeting with an advisor at McAlvany Precious Metals to talk through your financial objectives, now is a great time to start. Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Falling Yields Globally May Be Signaling Concern Rising Stocks & Cryptos Show Bulls All In Send Questions For Our Q&A Programs To: info@mcalvany.com "I think there's perhaps too many currents swirling together today, just under the surface, to sort out precisely what's happening in the markets. What is undisputable is that credit markets globally have moved to unsound levels, and a variety of pressure points and vulnerabilities, areas of uncertainty, exist in the spheres of public policy, of fiscal policy, and international relations. And so, on the surface, you have a host of catalysts for consequential movement within the markets." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, before we get started, let's just announce to our listeners that we would love to hear their responses, their questions. Every year, toward the end of the year, we ask for questions. We ask that you keep them short, something that we can actually read in a short way, and then answer. And so we would ask our listeners to just send that to info@mcalvany.com, and over the next few weeks we'll gather those. And Dave, I know you put a lot of time and effort into every question, so it's very much appreciated. David: Every year gets a little harder. I feel like it's a competition of stump the chumps. The questions get better and better, the answers get thinner and thinner. Now, we'll do our best to put something together that's coherent and reflective. Thanks for sending the Q&A material over. We'll do that on Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve. Just send your questions to info@mcalvany.com. Kevin: Yeah, and just to reiterate, please do keep the questions just to a few lines, because we try to get through everything in several weeks. You know, Dave, you and I, when we were sitting down—and I love the fact that we have our meetings at Table 30—we're 17 years in, but they were out of Talisker last night, but we had Lagavulin instead. So we sat down at Table 30, we had our Lagavulin, but I think we both were on the same page. There's a lot of noise going on right now, and some of it's information with meaning, some of it's information without meaning, and it's an exciting time because there is a change in the wind. But a lot of times when you have changes like that, it's hard to analyze the data. David: Yeah. Times we can stretch our limits in terms of inputs, and for the child with Asperger's, sensory inputs can aggregate and then overwhelm. For the average inquiring mind, my own included, there's a lot of complexity embedded in price trends today, pick your market. There's a lot going on. Not all of it is cohesive and coherent. A lot of it is contradictory or at least sufficiently complex enough to keep you second-guessing real hard conclusions. So what we do on a weekly basis as an asset management team, we review—twice weekly, actually—a spreadsheet with over a hundred financial market variables. These oscillate minute by minute, and they indicate all the nuanced shifts within the financial markets. They provide us with a mosaic very much like the tiled art with a million pieces that in aggregate create a theme. And some days the theme is clear. Other days, all we have is movement with the meaning piece remaining a little bit elusive. Kevin: You and I were talking about Doug Noland last night, that he's got some disciplines, models, that he follows. That can be very, very valuable in an environment of noise. And I remember, Dave, you and I for decades read a wonderful market analyst named Richard Russell. He also had a model that he used called the Dow Theory, and there were times when he disagreed with what his model was saying, and there was still the human element. In other words, it wasn't just an algorithm everybody followed. I think Doug and the team do the same thing, don't you? There's models that you follow that tell you certain things to do.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Top Execs Selling 5x More Stock Than Buying Goldman Sachs Calls For $3,000 Gold In 2025 Will Powell Drop Rates Again? "The Wilshire 5000 to GDP, this is a modified Buffett ratio. It touched 202% last week, which is an all-time high. It's a measure like the Buffett ratio, covers the aggregate of 5,000 companies, telling us something. There's notable insider selling. Five to one is the ratio. Actually, just above five to one. Historically, to be fair to the executives who are doing this, they're not making a market call today. They get to a period where they're comfortable and they want to get liquid, and they're usually two to three quarters early before a major downturn. When you see a significant uptick in insider selling, that's two to three quarters. You're on notice." — David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick along with David McAlvany. Well, David, you did it. You did it. You're down in Texas and you told me you were going to do a Spartan race, but I haven't seen you training like I had in the past. How'd it go? David: Not training like I have in the past. How about not at all? It's been a nice 18-month break. The annual pilgrimage to Texas, it's here, it's arrived, like other holidays we spend feasting and celebrating together as family. The special highlight for this one is my second son's birthday. He turned 16 over the weekend. Kevin: Wow. David: On his birthday, he requested that we race together something called an OCR or obstacle course race. You mentioned it, the Spartan race to be exact. Kevin: Okay. If he's turning 16, you're just about to turn 50, aren't you? David: This is a huge year for us. My oldest turned 18; the next, 16; the next, 13; the next, 10, so we're out of single digits. My wife and I celebrate our 25th anniversary, and it's my 50th birthday in about 10 days. Yeah, this is a big year for us. After watching the Tyson-Jake Paul fight a few weeks back, I figured we might have another version of the old lion being surpassed by the young lion. Again, maybe I'm just feeling a little unenthused turning 50, but we did both bleed a little. It was not a competitive race between the two of us. It was just a great day. We ran, we suffered a little, we started and finished as a team, and we hopped over prickly pear in quantities I've never imagined, working through the 25 obstacles over the course. And then the course is about six and a half miles. We got to the end and they gave us this interesting pitch as we crossed the finish line, "Do you want to do an extra mile?" It was like one of those fear of missing out moments. He was like, "Sure, I guess we'll just run an extra mile," but it was a great memory maker. Kevin: And you did that. You did that. Well, that's awesome. I remember one of the people here at the office, Dave. I won't name them. When we were doing the Half Ironman on the big island in Hawaii, the last part of the run was looped. I remember we all had to run two loops. Remember that? David: Oh, yeah. Kevin: You patted me on the back and you passed me quickly. But one of the members of our team thought the loop was just once, not twice. When she got to the finish line, they said, "Oh, no, you need to loop again." That was a miserable feeling. Running that extra mile, I can see that, but if you recall, I think that was an extra six and a half miles for her. David: That's right. That's right. Kevin: Yeah. Let's take it to the economic side of things, talking about running the extra mile. Dave, we were doing this commentary back in 2008, but after the global financial crisis was really playing itself out to look like it was going to be a depression, there was a choice to be made. Do we let the depression happen—which usually is the best thing to happen because you come back out of it? We've talked about other depressions in the past where, if left alone, you come back healthier, not in bad shape.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Precious metals continue to follow the playbook laid out by our analysis of a Republican presidential win. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of November 20: The price of gold is up about 4.3% or $108 to $2,650 from last week, a really nice bounce up in a week. The price of silver is up 3.9% or around $1.15 at $30.86 from a week earlier. Platinum is up about 3.6% or $33 to $958 from a week earlier. Palladium is up 12.5% or $113 to $1,024 from the prior week. That’s a nice recovery from last week’s dip of 5.3%. Copper's up about 15 cents, or around 3.8% to around $3.80. There’s a good chance copper will reach $4 in the next few months. Looking at the equities markets… The DJIA is down 1.5% or 670 points to around 43,200. The S&P 500 is down 80 points or 1.3% to around 5,920. The Dow Transports is off 600 points or 3.5% since last week. The US dollar index is up 7% since October, or 3.5% since the election with a strong bounce off the trading range floor. It’s now pushing up against the ceiling. The Meteoric Dollar Rise The rise in the dollar right now is insane. What’s driving it higher? When you look at where it’s going, it’s knocking on that ceiling right now. This rise isn’t just an influx of money from Asia because of Chinese concerns. And it’s not just the average American thinking Donald Trump will be better for the US dollar. It may also be the flight of capital coming out of Europe due to fear. While the BRICS alliance is trying to put up a strong front for a new BRICS currency, it is not a done deal. It takes a long time to compete with a global reserve currency. Just look back at how the Euro evolved. It was proposed in the 70s and 80s, but it didn’t become the powerhouse currency that it is today until the mid 2000s. With respect to BRICS, there was some infighting between India and Russia and China about how India would pay for their oil. China demanded it be settled in Yuan. Instead, India left the deal to settle it in dollars with the US. So there’s no real agreement yet with the BRICS currency. Gold Doesn’t Follow The Dollar There may be investors out there that believe that gold will correct and go lower — and that will be their entry point. But that’s not what we’re seeing from our years of analysis. Gold isn’t supposed to follow the dollar. But with the dollar at $107 right now and gold at $2,650 per ounce, it’s because of the sheer magnitude of money printing over the last decade. It represents the number of dollars in circulation. The velocity of money is picking up the US dollar. If there’s also economic stimulus with a Trump economic plan, we’ll likely see the dollar rally and gold would follow suit if this is driven by geopolitics. Don’t Miss Out on Gold While China and other international markets have been heavily investing in gold, Americans have been missing out. If you don't own gold yet, now is the time. Get your position now. If there's pullbacks, buy a dip. But the bottom line is you don’t know what gold's going to do. Trump is not the save-all cure- all in these markets. The McAlvany advisor team is here to help guide you. With decades of experience in precious metals investing, they are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556…
Trump Is Not In Yet & He's Already Being Blamed Pre-Election October Deficit Largest Ever Ukraine Strikes Into Russia With U.S. Approval & Hardware "I think without tariffs as negotiated and leveraged on other items we lose the power to encourage energy imports from the US. It's the art of the deal. Economists may worry about the inflationary impacts of tariffs, and to the degree that we see it—see that inflation—I think it's going to indicate that Trump didn't get what he wanted. What he really wants is to address the balance of payments deficits via exports, not via penalizing imports." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, I did something sort of strange this weekend. I really focused on a year, 1818, because I had heard about the second US central bank tightening credit when inflation was running away. The American economy was booming at the time. People were taking huge debts and buying land, and they were exporting produce to Europe, which was war-torn because of the Napoleonic Wars. So America was booming, but the problem was the debt was creating a lot of growth that wasn't real, that could not be sustained, and it was creating inflation, to be honest with you. And so the head of the second US central bank—we've had three tries at the Federal Reserve in one way or another—went in and just basically tightened credit, and he said, "No more loans." And he called his debts in, and it created what I had not really paid much attention to. It created what they call the Panic of 1819, and a very, very severe depression after that. So we went from, it was called the Era of Good Feelings at the time, to actually one of the worst depressions America's ever been through. And I'm thinking right now, you had a call this morning with an international client who said, "You guys actually are looking like you have a pretty strong economy." But is that being run by a basis of something that can be sustained or is it just purely debt, Dave? David: Well, that's the key. I think when you look at GDP growth, the Atlanta Fed puts their GDPNow number together. It's been coming down a little bit, but it's still, say 2.5%, and the larger figure compiled is 2.8%. So GDP growth just shy of 3%. Now the question is, what would that number look like if you sucked out $2 trillion in deficit spending? Because government spending is a factor in GDP, and there's no distinguishing between debt spending—deficit spending—and just regular old spending. It's economic activity. So it does look pretty good. It reminds me of many years ago. I lived in Los Angeles, and I tell you what, at least 50% of the people who owned BMWs and Mercedes lived in really cheap apartments. They could not afford those cars, but it was what they had to impress the ladies, and they lived on a larger scale with perhaps an ulterior motive. They needed to prove something. And so you live beyond your means so that you can make an impression. Kevin: Well, and a lot of times you can afford something you can't afford for a little while just based on monthly payments. William McChesney Martin, who basically said it's okay to pull the punch bowl back before the party gets out of hand, and we really have left the punch bowl out continually, haven't we? David: Yeah, absolutely. So you've got today the run-up to unsustainable valuations in the stock market. These valuations, it's pretty easy to ignore them because mainly people are making money and they're playing the momentum game, which packs a lot of euphoria into a little bit of time. And we share a good deal in common with the late '20s euphoria, with the year 2000 as well, what you described—was that 1818, in the era of happy feelings? Kevin: Oh yeah, yeah, good feelings. David: Good feelings. Kevin: The Era of Good Feelings, but boy, you take the punch bowl away. But this is why what you brought up last week was so...…
This week it’s more than just a weekly recap but also a bit of a look ahead. There’s been a lot of price action in the last week. So let’s take a look at where prices stand as of November 13: The price of gold is down about 3.9% or $85 from last week. It is down $211 or 7.6% from its high on October 30. The price of silver is down 2.7% or around $0.83 from a week earlier. It is down $4.50 or 12.9% from its pre-election price on October 29. Platinum is down about 5.3% or $52 from top to bottom over the week. It is sitting down 11% or $115 since it reached its peak. Palladium is down 5.3% or $105 from where it was last week. It is down $322 or 25.8% since October 29. The S&P 500 is up 40 points or 0.6%, sitting just under 6,000. It is up 264 points or 4.6% since the election. The Dow Transports are up 62 points or 0.3% since last week. And they’ve risen 1222 points or 7.5% since election day. The US dollar index is up 1.3 points or 1.3% since last week, at around $106.5. They’re up 2.8% since election day. Short-Term Prediction for Gold Looking at the 200-day moving average chart for gold, it appears that gold will likely drift down from its record high levels. It would likely land around the $2,400 per ounce level. This downward movement would likely happen within the next 4-6 weeks. However, this short-term dip will not last long. We are still in the midst of a multi-year bull market that will continue. You can see it when you zoom out a few years to when it started. Gold’s Stair-Stepping Bull Market Looking back, gold had hit a bottom around December 2015. Back then, it was trading just around $1,050 per ounce. Gold continued to trade sideways for the next couple of years, but the floor was slowly rising. And finally it had a breakout point in May 2019. That’s when it had clearly entered a bull market, and it was trading around $1,280. Gold then traded within its 200 day moving average. The only exception was at the start of the pandemic, when the uncertainty took over as no one knew what would happen when the world shut down. But since then, gold has been slowly stair-stepping higher and finding new floors. What we see happening throughout this period is gold has a breakout and reaches a new high, and then the exuberance wears off. There’s a natural selloff and recalibration. So for example, gold went from $1,200 to $2,000 in the beginning of the bull market. The emotional high wore off and gold dropped back down to around $1,700 — a more “reasonable” price. Now that the election has happened, gold has again rallied to a new record high, breaking out from its 200 day moving average. And with this most recent sell-off, we expect it again to drop down even further to sell off the exuberance of knowing who the next president will be in the White House. Build Your Nest Egg No matter what happens in the short term or long term, gold will continue to retain its value. That’s why it is the perfect asset to preserve your purchasing power and build a solid foundation for retirement. Gold’s average is almost 10% a year over time, regardless of the period of time. An ounce of gold will buy in 20 years, what that ounce of gold buys today. So for the sake of your retirement planning, it is smart to include gold in your portfolio. Gold is the guaranteed income when you need it. Buy Gold on The Dip How many ounces of gold can you accumulate on price dips to meet your objective of a secure retirement? It’s best to prepare in advance, because price dips are typically short lived. Speak with a McAlvany financial advisor to put together a strategy so you’ll be ready to buy on the dips. Reach us at 800-525-9556, Monday - Friday. Call or email us, and an advisor will get back to you shortly.…
Left Cannot Ignore Electoral & Popular Sweep Head Of $11 Trillion BlackRock Likes Hard Assets When Will Western Investors Move To Gold? "The adjustment is beginning in their investors' minds to a higher-for-longer environment, an adjustment to debt and deficits which are not quickly resolved, not by a person, not by a party, but this is a dedication to resolving an issue which may take decades. And that's partially through economic growth, that's partially through an increase in revenue, that's partially through a reduction in deficit spending. But until we get to those long-term solutions, we deal with critical issues. And Rieder is saying, avoid the long end of the curve. Rieder is saying, take a look at hard assets." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, a lot has changed in a week, but I can't help but think of a man named Onoda Hiroo, who after World War II, Japanese soldier, he fought on 29 years. He was on a Philippine island, and he absolutely refused to believe that the war was over, even when Japanese generals and commanders would come and try to talk him out. He could not believe that. I can't help but think that that's a lot like Arizona and California right now. My wife and I turned on Jimmy Kimmel, and instead of him being funny, he was just standing and crying and talking about the end of the world. And we watched Saturday Night Live on Saturday night, the opening skit, we thought it might be funny, but instead they just really stood and cried and talked about the end of the world. I'm just wondering, is the war over or is it just beginning? David: Yeah, it's a great question. Well, yes, a lot has happened in the last week. We've got President-elect Trump in line for another four years. The cabinet positions are being lined out, and yet a full week later, they're still counting ballots in Arizona and California. Kevin: Yeah, it's like the Japanese soldier on the island. Why are they still counting, Dave? David: It's hard to believe that in states like Florida you can finish the count the day of the election, while states home to Silicon Valley and some of the greatest hardware and software inventions ever, they can't figure it out. The vote count a full week after the election day is still going on. In my mind, election integrity has a black eye from that kind of incompetence. Kevin: Well, and last week you were critical of both parties, and had a little bit of cynicism going, but there seems to be an overwhelming message that's being sent to the United States right now. David: Reflecting on my pre-election comments, I think they were adequately critical of the parties running, maybe overly cynical about the American public. Whether you regard the election outcome as a good thing or a bad thing, there was uniformity in the political shift. It was across ethnic and socioeconomic lines, all swing states, a significant shift in the African-American and Latino communities. There was a sea of red on the American map, 49 out of 50 states shifted red with a wide margin, enough margin in the popular vote to give Trump an unambiguous mandate to fix a few things. The exit polls noted that inflation, immigration, and a fixation on cultural issues which don't help the middle class were top of mind, and threats to democracy ranked high as well, with a good number of those citing that concern voting for Trump, interestingly. So, the shift towards Trump included a surprisingly large college-age contingent, and of course the minority contingents I just mentioned. But maybe minorities have figured out that rhetoric is insufficient to make your life better. And that a strong economy—that tends to lift all boats. The opposite, if you're looking at strong inflation, that uniformly sucks the tide out from under those same vessels. Kevin: Yeah, Dave, the question was asked of Kamala,…
This week, the markets breathed a sigh of relief after a contentious election season. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of November 6: The price of gold is down about 4.5% or $125 from last week. The price of silver is down a little over 10% or around $3 from a week earlier. Platinum is down about 7% or $74 from top to bottom over the week. It is sitting down below $1,000 again. Palladium is down 15.5% or $190 from where it was last week, hovering around $1,020. The S&P 500 jumped up 3.8% to 5,930, a new all-time high for the index. Gold Dips on Trump Win As discussed in our election market expectations episode, with a potential Republican win in the election, there would be an initial gold decline. It's an immediate response of exuberance of a healthy turnaround in an economy, hopefully some fiscal responsibility. We'll see if that actually ends up being what plays out. At the same time, we see the S&P 500 reaching an all time high. So is the NASDAQ, up over 2.5% today, while the DJIA is up 3.6% or 1540 points as of the day after the election. These are other indications of market exuberance with an expectation of a turnaround in the economy with the Trump administration. If we look at the first election win for President Trump in 2016, we saw a very similar price action as in other elections. It was a short-term, two day response followed by a reversal for a few weeks before resuming that decline. But when Trump won in 2016, we actually saw an unchecked decline of about 13.5% in the gold price. It was a very short period of time — just by December 22nd, 2016, we had bottomed after that November 4th date. We believe that the opposite would've been true if Harris had won. You would have seen a gold spike as a vote against fiscal policies of the left as well as a continuation of some of what they had been doing, and the equities markets likely wouldn't be rallying. De-Dollarization and BRICs News and talk radio veteran John Loeffler, former host of Steel on Steel and co-host of the Financial Sense News Hour with Jim Puplava, joined as our guest in the studio. We asked Mr. Loeffler for his take on recent BRICS discussions of de-dollarization and the US debt dilemma. While it’s impossible to say what’s next, he did share some wisdom on what could happen. “Every fiat currency historically has a shelf life of no longer than 200 to 250 years before it gets inflated into oblivion. And that's what we're watching happen right now with the dollar.” “It's significant that the BRICS discussion is revolving around de-dollarization. In the case of the BRICS countries, they're going to use the stabilization of their own currency with gold and or other precious metals as some kind of a hedge or a block against getting their currencies pulled down as the dollar ceases to be the currency of last resort around the world.” “In other international circles, you’re beginning to hear discussions of the post-dollar era. That means everybody else is thinking about what will happen if the dollar dies or if it ceases to be the currency of last resort that they're actually talking about.” Seek The Truth, Plan Ahead Will the US get the debt under control? It seems unlikely. As we discussed last week, austerity is never popular. Every time the Fed Chair makes an economic prediction — no matter if it’s Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, or even Allen Greenspan — they never get it right. The job of the Federal Reserve is to maintain expectations, not tell you the truth. So the most important thing to do is to find sources of information that have been telling you consistently the truth, warning you of things to come bravely and also as you say, have a plan, but be flexible. Plan Your Metals Strategy Now is the time to develop an economic game plan for yourself, for your family, for your loved ones. The Federal Reserve won’t protect your wealth.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Morgan Lewis On Emerging BRICS / Gold Strategy Buffett Sells 2/3 Of His Apple Stock Gold Up 33% YTD Is Only The Beginning David: "Friends of mine will point to the legitimacy of one news source or another as if pedigree matters. And ironically, all pedigree gets you today is uniformity, is conformity, is educated imbecility. What matters is integrity, and the mainstream media has demonstrated it has none. News outlets are dying because they failed to see the need for respecting the truth more than what they're choosing as a priority, which is worshiping power and conforming to ideological pre-commitments." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, I just really enjoy our Monday nights before we record the Commentary. The Talisker scotch is— A lot of times people say, "Well, why is it that you like Talisker?" And it's way too complicated to explain. It's not just the taste of the scotch, it's the years and years and years of friendship that went into it, and it's just become the taste of when you and I meet. David: Well, and it's something that I think many people would appreciate in those terms. If they don't like single malt, they certainly appreciate the depth of relationship and the ability to bob and weave and go lots of different places. We're going to start this morning by bobbing and weaving with Morgan Lewis. We just came out of a company-wide meeting, and I thought I'd ask him a couple of questions as it relates to foreign currency reserves, the BRICS nations, and kind of a continuation of last week's conversation on that topic. Kevin: Yeah. We had discussed last night, have Morgan come on, just because the Hard Asset Insights that he writes every week. They're fabulous, but this one in particular this week was really good. David: And it should be a part of everyone's weekly staple. That's a Saturday morning read along with the Credit Bubble Bulletin. Not to be missed. * * * Kevin: Morgan, thank you for joining us. David: In the office, we often talk about our debt issues. We talk about the transition for the US dollar system as it is today, as it could be tomorrow. And in last week's Commentary, we did spend a bit of time talking about the meeting in Kazan, Russia, the BRICS meeting. The significance of that we're still trying to figure out, we don't know what exactly will happen. We know the intent. We know the desire amongst the parties involved to see a shift in the status quo. Give us some perspective, Morgan, on the important points that you're connecting. Morgan: Yeah. Well, I mean, I would say that nothing profoundly new came out of the Kazan summit, but there's a lot we already know. And I think it confirmed some of the aspects that are powering the gold market, I would say, in particular right now. The BRICS, the criticism coming out of Kazan has been that they haven't announced some alternative reserve currency, but I think that misses the point. I don't think their intention is to create a US dollar-centric reserve currency model. David: Take me back to 2015 when we had sort of a clear intent expressed by leaders within the People's Bank of China as to the role that they saw gold playing in the future as they were literally just launching and developing this new thing, the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Morgan: Yeah. We know that they are interested in an alternative to the dollar. The PBOC member in 2015 wrote a piece that was titled "The World Needs a New Reserve Currency." In it, he referenced the intention to use the yuan for trade invoicing for commodities like oil and gas, and he said they would like to increase the uses of the yuan in trade using gold. So, this has been talked about for a long time. I think people get a little tired of— The King Dollar narrative is brought up frequently to belittle these claims. And the idea being that they really can't de-dollarize,…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Late-Cycle Bubble Fragilities MWM Q3 2024 Tactical Short Conference Call October 31, 2024 David: Good afternoon, this is David McAlvany. I want to welcome you to our Tactical Short Third Quarter Conference Call. Thank you for participating in this call. As always, we want to give a special thanks to our valued account holders, we greatly value our client relationships. I came across a quote from Carmen Reinhart, who has been a guest on our weekly podcast in the past. She's spent time at a variety of universities and with the IMF and World Bank, working as an economist. Co-wrote a book with Ken Rogoff a number of years ago. If you don't know Ken, he's a chess Grand Master, Harvard professor, author of many books, including one that they co-wrote, This Time it's Different. They look at debt and what is ultimately sustainable or not sustainable. And as we go into the conversation today with Doug, there's a lot of complexity and a lot of detail, and I appreciate how simple and focused this one quote from Carmen is, because it gets to the nub of what we're dealing with. She says, "If there is one common theme to the vast range of the world's financial crises, it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom." And just holding onto that simple idea, where we begin today is with that simple idea, we'll move through complexity, and I want to come back around to that simple idea of too much debt ends up being a bad idea when you get out of the boom times. So a little context: With first-time listeners on today's call, we'll begin with some general information for those unfamiliar with Tactical Short, and there is more detailed information available at mwealthm.com/TacticalShort. The objective of Tactical Short is to provide a professionally managed product that reduces the overall risk in a client's total investment portfolio. At the same time, we'd like to provide downside protection in a global market backdrop with extraordinary uncertainty at extreme risk. The strategy is designed for separately managed accounts that gives us the ability to— The advantages of that are that it's investor-friendly. There's full transparency, there's lots of flexibility, reasonable fees, there's no lockups, and that's why we've chosen that structure. We have the flexibility to short stocks and ETFs, and our plan has been to, on occasion, buy liquid listed put options as well. Shorting entails a unique set of risks and we're set apart both by our analytical framework, as well as the uncompromising focus on identifying and managing risk. Our Tactical Short Strategy began the third quarter with a short exposure targeted at 80%. The target has held steady throughout the quarter at that level. Focused on the challenging backdrop for managing short exposure, a short in the S&P 500 ETF, SPY, remained the default position, which is the case for high-risk environments. I'll give you an update on performance, and then I will pass the baton to Doug. Tactical Short accounts after fees returned a negative 4.28% during Q3. The S&P 500 returned a positive 5.89. For the quarter, Tactical Short accounts returned a negative 73% of the S&P 500's positive return. And as for one year performance, Tactical Short after fees returned a negative 20.99 versus the 36.33 return for the S&P. So, Tactical Short's loss was that of 57.8% of the S&P 500's positive return. We regularly track Tactical Short performance versus three actively managed short competitor funds. The first is Grizzly Short Fund, which returned negative 5.48 during Q3. And over the past year, Grizzly has returned negative 14.14. Ranger Equity Bear returned a negative 9.27 for the quarter, with a negative 12.47 for their one-year returns. Federated Prudent Bear Fund returned a negative 3.58 during Q3, and negative 18.63 for one year.…
This week, we see a small bump up in gold and a stronger move up in silver. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of October 30: The price of gold is up about 1.5% or $68 from last week. However, gold did hit a mid-week high at $2,790. It is inching up to the $2,800 mark. The price of silver is up about 6% or around $2 from a week earlier. At one point intra-week, it was up to a high of $34.80. So silver keeps testing the $35 level. Platinum is down about 1% to around $1,004, after an intra-week bump up to nearly $1,050. That’s a 4% swing through the week. Palladium is up 8% from where it was last week, hovering around $1,125. In a volatile trading week, the white metal rallied up 17% at one point intra-week. The S&P 500 is flat at around 5,800, parked at this level pending the US elections. The price of copper is also flat from a week earlier. Runaway US Debt In order to finance the gargantuan US debt, Janet Yellen is telling the government that they must lower interest rates. So we are going into a period where to carry the debt, the interest rates have to be lower because so much of our $35 trillion is very short term treasury paper. So interest rates will drop according to the Fed. But the bond market will start separating itself from the US government if they can't effectively lower the interest payment on the debt. There’s no hiding the interest level and the trillion dollar annual plus interest payment to fund the deficit. So we’re predicting a period of very strong inflation. And gold seems to recognize this, too. Gold Tests $2,800 With investors bracing for election day next week, we expect to see quite a bit of volatility in the markets across the board. Gold is now flirting with $2,800 per ounce, which could have a psychological effect on trades. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if we had a bit of a pullback in the price of gold. As we discussed in our Election Market Expectations episode, historical charts show short-term moves in the gold price after a presidential election. Following a democratic election, you tend to see gold take a jump up. In a Republican-won election, gold will take a short-term decline. Perhaps the market is getting ready for a shift after the election Too Late to Get In? When gold has been stair-stepping upwards, it can seem like it’s just too late to purchase ounces. Realistically, the best way to invest is to purchase gold incrementally and regularly. Gradually add to the ounces that you own. Another strategy to purchase with less risk — buy silver instead. Silver is undervalued and it has a lot of upside potential. When the gold to silver ratio shifts, you can make a ratio trade from silver into gold. Plan Your Metals Strategy How should you fit precious metals into your portfolio? What’s the best way to add ounces to help you reach your personal goals? The McAlvany advisor team is here to help guide you. With decades of experience in precious metals investing, they are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
45 Countries attend BRIC Summit in Russia Gold seen as antidote to political/economic insanity Listen to Doug Noland’s analysis this Thursday: https://mcalvany.com/wealth/tactical-short-registration/ "Gold is sobriety in a world drunk on credit. Credit markets are where the action will be. Maybe that's over the next two to three years, not necessarily the next two to three months, but the downstream implications that stem from a credit bubble bursting will be like a flood, very difficult to contain." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, yesterday I was talking to a client in North Carolina, and it's tragic in some places, what happened in North Carolina, and then there's other places that were relatively unaffected—the higher elevation, and my client was in the higher elevation. But what we're seeing right now in real time in the physical world, there seems to be an analogy to that, doesn't there? You've been talking about the debt problem, and we just heard Morgan talking about the debt problem. It seems to me like there's a flood coming, and that is something that we can predict ahead of time. David: I have a picture on my phone. I have a little picnic with my family, and it was in Asheville a year and a half ago. We were looking for colleges for my oldest, and we stopped off at this little arts community, and lots of things, almost like a flea market and art gallery combined. We're sitting there, and off in the distance is this big mural about two stories high of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. And I look at these pictures from Asheville just a few weeks ago, and that entire complex was underwater, entire complex. From the picnic where you don't think that something like that can happen to looking in shock that, wait a minute, that's the tree we sat under. And you can see just the tippy-top of the tree. Kevin: Well, and the problem that you have with something like that, anytime you have an enormous deluge like came through, the dams are the things that you have to worry about because you don't just get the water that came at the time, but you get all the water that's been stored going backwards. David: Yeah, a few weeks back I watched a video that recapped those floods, and one I found fascinating to watch was— I think it has a debt market corollary. Dam nearly overflowing. It's a trickle of water, finding a weak spot through which to run. It went from a trickle to a flood as the dam itself was eroded, and then blew out, and downstream, there was nothing that could be done. So as I think about the debt markets, it's the downstream implications that stem from a credit bubble bursting, very much like a flood. It's difficult to contain. Join us this Thursday, Doug Noland and I will discuss late cycle bubble fragilities. This is our quarterly Tactical Short call. That's 2:00 PM Mountain Time. Register for the call. I think you'll need these insights pre-election. Kevin: Dave, we've often talked about when you were doing triathlon very regularly, about having in reserves— You have to have reserves, toward the end of the race especially. Like a matchbook. We talked about the analogy. You get 24 matches in a matchbook. You don't want to burn them all right off the bat. But I look at our debt. Again, Morgan just gave us our latest update, and this is the year we've talked about the interest on our debt exceeds what we pay for the military, and then next year, it's going to exceed what we pay for Social Security. You've got countries right now that are meeting—we're not talking just four or five BRIC countries. We're talking dozens of BRIC or potential BRIC countries meeting in Russia, Dave. Could they be discussing a critical breach in the dam that they think might be triggered? David: Yeah. Barron's did a great write-up on the 25th. "China, Russia, Brazil Want to Demote the Dollar. Gold is the Answer.…
This week, we see a small bump up in gold and a stronger move up in silver.. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of October 23: The price of gold is up about 1.5% or $40 from last week. However, gold did hit a mid-week high at $2,750. The price of silver is up 6.5% from a week earlier. At one point on Tuesday, it was up over 10% since our recording last week. Platinum rose up about 2.25% from a week earlier. It is still hovering right around the $1,000 per ounce mark. Palladium up about 3.5% and hovering just above $1,000. So still looking pretty close one to one between platinum and palladium and staggering discount compared to gold. Copper’s Move Spells Trouble Copper’s short term chart makes it look like this commodity is trending down. But if you pull out the chart and look back year to date, or even a full year, it looks like copper is having an upper compression. It’s a similar pattern that you can see in another metal — gold. If there’s something comparable in the way copper is moving, you could see copper reaching a high of $7 per ounce vs $3 per ounce just a couple of years ago. Copper acts as a canary in the coal mine. A rise in the price of copper is the first indicator of an increase in the cost of production and the cost of living globally. And while the S&P 500 continues to rise, it could be simply an inflation driven market push. Gold = Inflation Protection When you want to protect your purchasing power from inflation erosion, gold is your best ally. Now is the time to reach out to a trusted McAlvany advisor for precious metals investing advice. They are happy to speak with you about your investment goals and strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
Gold Rising With Long Yields Signals Trouble China Military "Shows Love" To Taiwan Central Bank Gold Buyers To Be Followed By Mass Public Buying The McAlvany Weekly Commentary October 23, 2024 "The world of shadow banking and financialization is breaking into new territory. Private credit is what everyone is fawning over today, and it's capturing market share from commercial lenders. In fact, it is the new subprime. You've got juicy fees, you've got opacity, you've got lockups for investors. And frankly, if you can fog a mirror, you have access if you're a borrower. The last week, comments from Neel Kashkari at the Minneapolis Fed, he's claiming that this is actually a safer version of credit expansion than commercial lending. I think we're going to get to test that supposition in the next correction, and I think his credibility will be tested along with it." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, we're recording remote today because you have been speaking at a conference. I'd like to hear a little bit about that before we start talking about what you've been talking about. David: Last week was Dallas, this week is Florida. So, from one conference to the next, it's been busy on the road. Kevin: Well, Dave, there's so much to talk about. We've got people calling in saying, "Hey, gold's awfully high right now, isn't it?" And interest rates, we've seen interest rates rising, Dave, over the last few years, and we've seen gold rising at the same time. What does that say? Does that mean Summers-Barsky, the theory that higher interest rates mean lower gold, do you think we're throwing that away at this point and we're seeing something more like the 1970s? David: Well, the conversations at the conference were pretty intriguing. At the end of a long weekend, and I was listening to real estate experts primarily, the group's consensus was in line with the Fed's and with Wall Street equity traders'. Lower rates are here, and more are coming. So, for real estate investors, it's good news, particularly for the battered segments of the real estate market, at least for now, if that's what actually materializes. And I suspect they'll be right for short time, but wrong in the intermediate to long term. Next year, at this time, I think a surprise in bond yields is likely to be to the upside, not to lower levels. We mentioned Stanley Druckenmiller last week on the program. It would seem by his allocations—short the bond market—that our thinking overlaps with his. Kevin: Well, Dave, for years you've brought up the Summers-Barsky thesis, where it says higher interest rates mean that people can go out and get more income, so they're less likely to buy gold. We've seen the rise in interest rates, and you've been talking about, over the last few weeks, the rise in the yields in longer bonds. You would think that if gold was just playing off of the Summers-Barsky thesis, then it would be going down right now. Granted, you're talking about short-term rates coming down, but longer-term rates are still pointing to— Like you said, in the long run, we're nowhere near the end of this interest rate rise. David: Well, noteworthy for the gold market is the breaking of the inverse relationship between gold and interest rates. And this started back in 2020. Rates increased dramatically from negative yields to over five, five-and-a-half percent. Gold moved higher despite that. So, declining yields reduce the opportunity cost for owning gold. Rising yields increase that opportunity cost. So, in theory, that should cause gold selling and a drop in price. Yet rates have been rising, and that has not taken away gold's glint and gleam. This is almost very much like the '60s and '70s. Gold is rising alongside interest rates, and so it forces you to ask the question, is gold telling us there's more inflation ahead?…
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