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On August 20th, 1989, Lyle and Erik Menendez shot and killed their own parents. Until then, this Beverly Hills family had been a portrait of the American Dream. How did it go so wrong? To listen to all four episodes of 'The Menendez Brothers' right now and ad-free, go to IntoHistory.com . Subscribers enjoy uninterrupted listening, early releases, bonus content and more, only available at IntoHistory.com . If you or someone you know is in crisis, there is free help available at mhanational.org Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices…
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1 Understanding tax and donations | Sasol results fail to excite 20:02
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1 Xi Jinping makes nice with Chinese tech | Anglo raids Anglo Plat cash pile 14:19
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Anglo-American’s Cash Raid on Anglo-Platinum Anglo-American’s decision to unbundle its stake in Anglo-Platinum raises concerns. Declaring a special dividend of R59 per share wipes out the company’s entire R17.6 billion cash reserves. Implications for investors: selling pressure expected as shares land in new brokerage accounts. China’s Tech Revival? The appearance of Jack Ma and Xi Jinping together could mark a softening stance toward tech companies. Alibaba partners with Apple, integrating its AI into Apple’s ecosystem. Is China reopening the door for its tech giants? Bull Market Momentum Global indices continue to hit all-time highs, with AI and tech stocks leading the charge. Not just tech: European and Asian markets show strength. Are valuations stretched, or is there more room to run? Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order…
Market Updates & Analysis: Sasol Reversal Pattern? – Examining Sasol’s technical setup and the significance of a ‘kangaroo tail’ pattern. Rand Stability Amid Trump’s Threats – Despite geopolitical concerns, the rand remains steady. Top 40 at All-Time Highs – Market momentum and investor confidence. South Africa’s Budget Speech (Wednesday, 2 PM SAST) Revenue shortfalls and potential tax bracket adjustments Universal Basic Income and National Health Insurance funding discussion Expectations for the fiscal policy outlook Stock & Sector Insights: Telkom: Revenue up 0.9%, in a turnaround phase, but Simon remains skeptical about telcos. Santam: Strong earnings growth (40-60% increase in HEPS), but insurance sector risks remain. Shoprite*: Consumer stock pullback; long-term bullish outlook despite short-term pressure. China Stocks & ETFs: Alibaba up 40% on Apple collaboration Satrix China ETF – is it time to reconsider investing in China? General sentiment split between ‘China is uninvestable’ vs. ‘China has potential’ Bond Market Watch: SA Bonds Showing Volatility: A significant move in bond yields post-Trump comments, raising concerns about borrowing costs. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order…
Trump Trade Tariffs & Global Market Impact: Initial tariffs of 10% (China) and 25% (Canada, Mexico) announced but later revised. U.S.-Canada relations strained, with Warren Buffett warning of reputational damage. Global negotiation shifts—China, Russia, and Europe eye opportunities. Continued U.S.-China trade tensions, including semiconductor restrictions and rare earth tariffs. Market volatility expected; long-term investment strategies recommended. Investment Strategies Amid Uncertainty: Volatility is high—avoid panic selling. Keep cash reserves for opportunities (buy the dip cautiously). Long-term focus: presidential terms are temporary, investments span decades. Interest Rate Decisions & Market Reactions: Bank of England expected to cut rates. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pauses rate hikes due to inflation concerns. South Africa’s MPC cuts rates, prime now at 11%. Analysts predict one to two more rate cuts in 2024. Gold Market Strength & Outlook: Gold price hovering near $2,900, with potential to break $3,000. Supply constraints—minimal new gold mining projects. Strong central bank purchases—1,000+ tons bought in 2023. Retail ETF inflows return after three years of outflows. Gold miners like Harmony, AngloGold*, and Pan African positioned well. Gold weekly | 06 February 2025 Retail Sector & Consumer Spending: Mixed trading updates: Pick n Pay and Boxer show early turnaround signs. Modest growth in TFG, Mr. Price*, and Clicks; Shoprite* remains strong. Cautious consumer spending patterns persist. Two-Pot Retirement System: Initial withdrawals lower than expected—around R50 billion. Future ongoing withdrawals expected as a structural component in SA’s economy. Vehicle Sales Trends: January sales at 46,400—stronger than expected. Used car market expanding, Chinese brands gaining traction. Auto sector investment options: CMH*, Motus, and Zeda. Such African monthly vehicle sales Sasol’s Ongoing Struggles: Six-month trading update—earnings per share around R14. Continual asset write-downs and operational challenges. PE ratio suggests market pricing for bankruptcy, but survival likely. No clear turnaround signals yet—investors should wait for stronger confirmation. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Podcast Introduction 01:10 Trump Tariffs and Global Trade Dynamics 06:25 Interest Rates and Economic Implications 10:02 Gold Market Trends and Predictions 12:51 Retail Sector Performance and Consumer Behavior 14:17 Vehicle Sales Insights and Market Trends 16:40 Sasol's Financial Challenges and Future Outlook…
The Cristal Challenge runs until October, with participants picking five local stocks (no ETFs or sub-20c stocks) to hold through the year. Simon’s picks include a mix of stable “banker” stocks and speculative plays: Richemont*: High-end luxury giant with strong fundamentals and global market appeal despite challenges in China. Trading near R3,500, with long-term potential boosted by luxury market recovery and stable global demand. Shoprite*: Dominant grocery retailer in South Africa, benefiting from market share growth and diversified business lines like 60/60 delivery. A steady performer with consistent earnings growth and market dominance, trading at a PE of 24. ADvTech*: Education sector leader, well-positioned to meet growing private schooling and tertiary education demands. Education giant trading below its historical PE average, supported by asset-light growth strategies. Calgro M3*: Affordable housing developer, thriving on demand for low-to-mid-income housing in South Africa. Value pick with a PE below 3 and a focus on affordable housing, addressing a critical market need. Purple Group*: Innovator behind EasyEquities, leveraging platform fees and expanded product offerings to drive revenue growth. Growth potential through EasyEquities' platform fees, rising customer base, and additional financial products. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order…
TSMC’s Record-Breaking Results Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) hit $26 billion in quarterly revenue. A strong contender in the AI supply chain with growing global operations. Gold: Continuing the Bull Run Gold remains a strong investment pick for Simon, with a potential to hit $3,000/oz. Gold | Weekly | 21 January 2025 Brent Crude Oil Concerns Rising oil prices could hurt both the global and South African economies. Trump Meme Coins & Meme Coin Mania Trump and Melania meme coins: Novelty or nonsense? Simon unpacks the hype. Grinrod & Mozambique Challenges Operational risks in Mozambique but potential opportunities with Transnet’s private rail plans. Sasol: A Case of Caution Chemical spin-offs and high oil prices spark discussion, but Simon isn’t convinced to buy. Cristal Challenge Simon’s picks for the Cristal Crystal Challenge: Shoprite*, Purple Group*, ADvtTch*, Calgro M3*, and Richemont*. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order…

1 Predictions 2025 with; Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan & Simon Brown 36:28
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For the twelfth year in a row Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan & Simon Brown get together and make three predictions each for year ahead. They then also give their expectations for the local Top40 index and the Rand against the US$. But first every year they start by scoring their previous year predictions to keep things real and honest.…
In the final show of the year Simon looks back at the many local and offshore winners (and a few losers) of 2024. There have been some excellent returns, but will they carry on into 2025?
Boxer IPO Hits the Market Boxer* (JSE code will be BOX) lists on 28 November, debuting at R54/share after a highly oversubscribed IPO. Strategies discussed for trading or investing in Boxer shares, including buying through Pick n Pay shares. Key takeaway: Patience is key; wait for potential pullbacks. Two-Pot Retirement Savings and Market Impact Early evidence of consumer spending from the two-pot retirement system. Stocks like Mr. Price*, Pepkor, and Keith McLachlan’s picks (e.g., Afrimat, Netcare) reviewed as beneficiaries. Satrix 40 ETF Turns 24 Launched in 2000, the Satrix 40 has delivered an annualized return of 11.3%. Impact: Introduced passive investing and slashed fees for South African investors. Bitcoin's Psychological Barrier at $100,000 Bitcoin fell short of the $100K milestone, retracing to around $93K. Analysis of big psychological levels in markets and what this means for Bitcoin's momentum. Bitcoin | Weekly | 27 November 2024 Anglo-Platinum Share Sale Anglo-American reduces its stake in Anglo-Platinum, selling at cycle lows. Discussion on PGM market challenges and future outlook. Trump’s Proposed Tariffs Announced 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports and 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada. Potential economic implications and geopolitical fallout analysed. Rand, DXY, and Gold The Rand holds surprisingly well despite DXY strength; predictions for 2024 suggest potential recovery. Gold price fluctuations and long-term bullish outlook. US$ Index (DXY) | Weekly | 27 November 2024 Commodity Spotlight: Coffee and Cocoa Coffee prices hit 20-year highs due to Brazilian droughts, impacting consumer costs. Cocoa prices stabilise after a surge, with Nestlé and soft commodity ETFs in focus. Super Group and SG Fleet Deal SG Fleet receives a buyout offer, boosting share prices. Opportunities in second-tier stocks like Invicta and Hudaco highlighted for a potentially improving economic environment. MPC Update South African Reserve Bank increases rates by 0.25%, citing risks from core inflation and external pressures. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview and Boxer IPO Insights 03:08 Two-Pot Money and Consumer Spending Trends 06:03 Satrix 40: A 24-Year Retrospective 08:51 Bitcoin's Psychological Barriers and Market Sentiment 11:40 Anglo-American's Strategic Moves and Market Reactions 14:58 Commodity Prices: Coffee and Cocoa Trends 17:49 Monetary Policy Committee Decisions and Economic Outlook jj…
October Inflation Local CPI at 2.8%, yet prime is 11.5% ahead of the MPC decision this afternoon. The gap is far to wide, SARB needs to cut aggressively. South Africa | Prime vs. CPI Gold and Bitcoin Gold has bounced, but is this for real? Bitcoin heading for US$100k Rand weakness The US$ remains string and is hurting the Rand. US$ Index Astral results Good results Paid back R1.1billion short-term debt But volatile, a trading stock. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order…
Market Overview Crypto Surge, Gold Decline: Bitcoin rallies as investors shift from gold to crypto. Gold hit a recent high of $2,800 but is now pulling back, possibly towards $2,300-$2,400. Central banks continue to buy gold as a hedge against U.S. dollar dominance and geopolitical risks. [caption id="attachment_43623" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Gold | Weekly | 13 November 2024 Rand Weakness: The ZAR weakened above 18 to the dollar, driven by strong U.S. dollar demand amidst market volatility. South African Rand overshoots due to its high liquidity, making it vulnerable to sharp moves. Trump's Impact on Crypto Market speculation suggests Trump may be crypto-friendly, unlike the current SEC chair Gary Gensler, known for his strict regulatory stance. Potential shifts in the regulatory landscape could benefit cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. Simon holds Bitcoin and advises caution: ensure crypto is stored in a hardware wallet for safety. Bitcoin | Weekly | 13 November 2024 Local Telco Sector: Vodacom & MTN Both companies struggle with weakened African currencies like the Ethiopian Birr and Egyptian Pound. Profits are impacted when converted back to ZAR. Despite attractive dividend yields (MTN ~4%, Vodacom ~5.6%), Simon remains bearish, highlighting high capex demands and sector challenges. Raubex: Construction Sector Bright Spot Strong results from Raubex, showing resilience in a struggling sector. Diversification into renewable energy and mining operations boosts performance. Simon notes it as one of the few quality construction plays left, alongside Afrimat. Consumer Market Struggles Updates from AVI and BidCorp indicate persistent weak consumer demand, despite optimism from a possible government of national unity. Inflation has eased, but consumer spending remains subdued as households repair balance sheets. Retail updates show mixed results: Truworths reported disappointing numbers, while The Foschini Group* performed better. Tencent Results Tencent posted strong results, though it did not significantly boost Naspers or Prosus stock prices. The market reaction was muted despite the solid performance. Final Thoughts The market remains volatile, with significant moves in crypto, gold, and the Rand. Simon advises a cautious approach, with a focus on quality stocks and long-term plays. Remember: be kind and look out for others. Kindness is rule number one. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order 00:00 Market Overview: Crypto vs Gold 02:50 The Trump Effect on Gold and Crypto 06:01 The Future of the Rand and Emerging Markets 08:55 Sector Analysis: Vodacom, MTN, and Raubex 16:02 Consumer Trends and Company Updates gg…

1 Trump wins, whats the trade? Also; AMSL, Nvidia and Crowdstrike all worth a look? (#609) 21:14
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Episode Summary: Simon Brown dives into the week’s biggest financial and economic stories, covering Trump’s election win, Nvidia's inclusion in the Dow, rate cuts expected from the FOMC and BOE, and the latest updates on Murray & Roberts, palladium, and gold. Recorded after market open, this episode sheds light on key trades, trends, and the shifting global landscape. Trump's Victory – What’s the Trade? Trump’s presidential win sparks market reactions, with immediate rallies in the S&P, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin. Simon discusses potential policy impacts, such as tariffs, technology restrictions on China, and implications for commodities, oil, and the South African economy. Notes on the uncertainty of Trump’s policies and their potential effects on inflation, EVs, and cryptocurrency. Nvidia in the Dow; Intel Out Nvidia enters the Dow Jones, replacing Intel. Simon critiques the Dow's price-based index system but acknowledges Nvidia’s stock performance, fuelled by strong demand from major tech firms. Discussion on how Nvidia's AI hardware demand could shape future stock gains. Nvidia | Weekly chart | Close 06 Nov 24 Murray & Roberts Update Murray & Roberts faces project downscaling from De Beers, revealing challenges tied to low diamond demand. Simon examines the ripple effects across the mining and construction sectors, highlighting how competitor data can provide insights. Palladium & Gold Trends Palladium and gold face downward pressure; Simon explores reasons for the dips, including potential G7 sanctions on Russian palladium. Simon highlights that gold’s long-term appeal remains strong, driven by central banks diversifying away from U.S. dollars into gold. Gold | Weekly chart | 07 Nov 24 Bank Rate Cuts – FOMC & BOE Rate cuts anticipated from the FOMC and Bank of England as central banks shift to a rate-cutting cycle. Insights on the potential impact on global markets and currency dynamics. ASML and AI Hardware Market ASML’s forward guidance disappoints, affecting semiconductor market outlook. Simon explains the unique position of ASML in the AI chip supply chain and its long-term value as a buy-the-dip candidate. CrowdStrike Resurgence CrowdStrike's recovery following a Microsoft update issue and Delta lawsuit. Simon assesses the stock’s growth potential in the cybersecurity space. Listener Takeaway: Markets remain unpredictable but resilient, with global relations, tech policies, and central bank strategies driving shifts. Simon emphasizes informed trading and the long view in these uncertain times. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order Disclaimers: The JSE Direct podcast is independent of JSE Limited and reflects Simon Brown’s views, not necessarily those of the JSE. Always consider risks when investing.…

1 Using AI to analyse Famous Brands results and Awesome Local CPI (#608) 20:26
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Local Inflation Update Inflation at 3.8% - lowest since March 2021 (3.5 years ago) Well below SARB's target range midpoint of 4.5% Q3 year-on-year inflation at 4.3% (vs SARB's expected 4.4%) SA CPI YonY September 2024 November MPC Meeting Outlook Rate cut expected, but size uncertain Possibility of 25bps vs 50bps cut Factors affecting decision: Rand weakness Rising oil prices Global economic conditions Important titbit about today's SA headline CPI print. It meant that CPI rose by 4.3% y/y in Q3 2024. In Sept, SARB expected 4.4% for Q3, implying Sept print largely in line with their expectations. Therefore, today's number will not change SARB's thinking. Folks should calm down. — Hugo Pienaar (@hugopien) October 23, 2024 Currency Markets US Dollar showing significant strength DXY moved from 100.42 to 104.33 (≈4% increase in one month) Strong capital flows into US Rand trading at R17.73 Potential to move above R18 Long-term targets of R16.80 and R15.50 looking less likely short-term US Election Impact Potential implications of different outcomes Trump's proposed policies could be inflationary: Planned tariffs Immigration restrictions Impact on labor markets and prices Famous Brands Results Analysis Using AI Demonstration of AI analysis using Google Notebook LM Key findings: Leading Brands: Operating margin >50% Signature Brands: Operating margin -6.7% Manufacturing: Improved margins due to diesel savings Geographic performance varies: South Africa: 1.8% margin UK operations showing significant decline Cash generation at R498 million (7% decrease) Plans for 89 new stores Chapters 00:00 Local Inflation and Economic Outlook 06:01 Using AI for Investment Analysis 12:06 Famous Brands Results Analysis 18:05 Comparative Analysis with SPUR Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order…
Strong Retail Sales and the Two-Pot System: Retail sales show a positive trend, rising 3.2% in August, exceeding expectations of 2.1%. The Two-Pot System has already released R20 billion in six weeks, with the money used mainly for paying down debt, saving, and spending. Retail sales recovery, though from a low base, is a strong indicator of improved consumer health due to factors like slightly lower interest rates and inflation. South African retail sales | YonY Tribute to Tito Mboweni: Simon reflects on the passing of Tito Mboweni, former Finance Minister and Reserve Bank Governor. Mboweni’s contributions include institutionalising the Reserve Bank’s MPC meetings and implementing key labor reforms during his tenure as Labor Minister. His lasting impact on the country’s economy and financial sectors was highlighted, along with his personality as a Twitter chef and self-styled "Duke of Magoebaskloof." Johnson & Johnson – A Smooth Dividend Play: Simon shares his reasons for holding Johnson & Johnson: consistent dividend growth (around 3% yield) and a steady 8% annual share price growth in US dollars. Despite some issues, the company offers reliable long-term returns in a competitive health and consumer space. Johnson & Johnson quarterly dividend payments Bytes Technology Group and Investment Opportunity: Bytes operates in the UK, offering hardware, software, and services. The stock showed mixed market reactions but has strong support around certain levels. With a forward P/E of 20 and a dividend yield of 3.6%, Simon sees it as an interesting opportunity for long-term investors in the tech space. Quilter Trading Update: Quilter’s strong Q3 results follow a good first half of the year, with significant inflows supporting future earnings. A solid financial services player with a dividend yield near 4% and a forward P/E of 15, Quilter is performing well and trading at all-time highs since its 2018 listing. Sasol – A Weak Chart: Simon discusses Sasol’s ongoing struggles, with a weak chart suggesting possible further declines. Investors should wait for technical indicators before making any moves. Brent Oil Price and Rand Volatility: Brent crude oil hit highs recently but is now retreating to $70 per barrel, with potential for further declines due to global oversupply. The rand, affected by dollar strength, is volatile but could see a return to 16.80 against the dollar in the coming months. Chapters 00:00 Retail Sales Recovery and Economic Outlook 04:29 Tribute to Tito Mboweni 08:32 Johnson & Johnson: A Steady Investment 09:52 Bytes Technology Group: Market Reactions 12:32 Quilter's Strong Performance 14:29 Cecil's Ongoing Struggles 15:56 Brent Oil Prices and Global Economy 17:48 Volatility of the Rand and Market Predictions Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order…
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