Factal Forecast takes a look at the biggest news stories coming in the next week and why they matter. From the editors at Factal, we publish our forward-looking podcast each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
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Global Security Briefing by Factal and Emergent Risk International
Factal and Emergent Risk International
Held live every two weeks on Thursdays, the Global Security Briefing is now the industry's largest virtual event of its kind. We examine security threats, supply chain impacts and geopolitical developments for global security and risk intelligence professionals. Since the earliest days of COVID, Factal and Emergent Risk International have held an essential hour-long briefing for global security and resilience professionals.
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Rescue crews struggle to reach victims as Afghanistan earthquake death toll soars
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10:52Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Awais Ahmad discuss the deadly earthquake in eastern Afghanistan, plus more on Nepal and China holding a military drill, a confidence vote in France, some immigration protections expiring for Hondurans and Nicaraguans in the US, and the UN General Assembly session opening in New York City. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podca…
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AI jobs impact; realistic AI images & video; China exit detentions; five things from ERI
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54:22This edition of the Briefing starts with Factal Chief Product Officer talking about the employment impacts of generative AI (some job fields are down for entry level positions). He then explores the latest in generative imagery and video, focusing on how the latest advancements will challenge risk intelligence and journalism. Kieran O'Leary shares …
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Hundreds killed in northwest Pakistan as cloudbursts bring devastating floods
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12:50Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Awais Ahmad discuss the devastating floods in Pakistan that have killed hundreds of people, plus more on Thailand’s top court ruling on a royal insult case, the Latin America Climate Summit and Trump ending the tariff exemption for small packages. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories a…
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Trump's war on Latin America's drug cartels; National Guard deployment in Washington, D.C.; Look ahead at the World Cup
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48:42This edition of the Global Security Briefing starts with Factal examining Trump's war on Latin America's drug cartels. Irene Villora, Factal's LATAM editorial lead, discusses the Trump administration's alleged order to use military force, Mexico's response, the expansion of surveillance, and potential implications. Cameron Evers, Deputy Director of…
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Trump deploys National Guard to DC in move critics call authoritarian power grab
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11:51Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Joe Veyera discuss U.S. President Donald Trump's controversial move to temporarily take over Washington, D.C., police and deploy the National Guard, plus more on elections in Nigeria and Bolivia and a possible peace deal between the Democratic Republic of Congo and the M23 rebel group. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts,…
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Netanyahu pushes for Gaza occupation despite rising humanitarian concerns
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14:21Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Ahmed Namatalla discuss Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's reported plan to re-occupy the Gaza Strip, plus more on Trump wanting a deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, a Federal Reserve governor stepping down, the anniversary of a doctor's murder in India, and Armenia and the U.S. holding military drills. Subscribe…
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Europe's fire season; Thai-Cambodia border dispute; NYC corporate shooting
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45:20This edition of the Global Security Briefing starts with Factal looking at Europe's fire season. Dave Clark goes over the nations with the most fires, urban areas threatened so far, and what the near-term prognosis is after more than twice the forested area burned in 2025 compared to the 20-year average. Kieran O'Leary, Director of Intelligence and…
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Angola protest death toll climbs as anger over fuel price hike continues
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16:20Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Owen Bonertz discuss the deadly fuel price protests in Angola, plus more on a tariff deadline in the U.S., DHS ending Temporary Protected Status for Cameroon and Nepal, the two-year anniversary of the imprisonment of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and independence day in Bolivia. Subscribe to the show: Apple Pod…
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New round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks begin as war drags on
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17:14Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss the latest developments on the war in Ukraine, plus more on labor strikes at airports in Portugal, parliamentary recall votes in Taiwan, Trump’s birthright citizenship order and NOAA discontinuing some of its weather data. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and oth…
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This week's Global Security Briefing covered the recent violence in Sweida, Syria hosted by Factal editor Agnese Boffano. Then Emergent Risk International analyst Hannah Poppy presented on the removal of U.S. sanctions on Syria, plus the remaining economic concerns in the nation. Vassilis Benopoulos from ERI finished the briefing with an updated on…
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Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Agnese Boffano discuss the clashes between Syria’s Druze and Bedouin communities that have killed more than 160 people and prompted Israel to bomb Damascus, plus more on an election in Japan, a parliament session in India, new immigration rules in the UK and the World Court issuing a climate change opinion. Subscribe to the…
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Death toll and questions continue to rise after deadly Texas floods
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11:38Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Joe Veyera discuss the deadly floods that tore through Texas's Hill Country region, plus more on the dissolution of the militant group Kurdistan Workers' Party, the FIFA Club World Cup final in New Jersey, the U.S. ending deportation protections for Afghans and an AI and energy summit in Pennsylvania. Subscribe to the show:…
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Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Jess Fino discuss the heat wave wreaking havoc in Europe, plus more on the Dalai Lama revealing a succession plan, an OPEC+ meeting, Israel’s prime minister visiting Washington, D.C., and Trump’s tariff pause set to expire. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and others are also avail…
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Together Factal and Emergent Risk International bring you up to Thursday morning's news on the conflict then they tell you what editors are watching for and what businesses should pay attention. Then ERI talks about the protests and political violence in the United States. Our next Briefing is July 17. Since the earliest days of COVID, Factal and E…
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Tensions soar as Thailand-Cambodia border dispute heats up
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12:10Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Vivian Wang discuss the soaring tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, plus more on elections in Tokyo, India reopening its airspace to Pakistani aircraft, U.S. regulators meeting about the Jan. 2024 Boeing 737 MAX door incident and New York City’s primary elections. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many …
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Anti-ICE protests spread across US as Trump’s immigration crackdown continues
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12:46Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Joe Veyera discuss the protests that have erupted in Los Angeles and across the United States, plus more on a court hearing for a former prime minister of Thailand, a military parade in Washington, D.C., France's Macron visiting Greenland and and the G7 summit in Canada. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and ma…
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2025 hurricane season; Ukraine-Russia war and peace (talks); South Korea's new government
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1:02:53First up Factal NORAM lead Joe talks about what went wrong with Hurricane Helene last year, this year's hurricane season forecast and the challenge of staffing shortages in NOAA and FEMA. Then Emergent Risk International Director of Analysis Kieran brings us up to speed on Ukraine's drone strike, Russia's asymmetric warfare and the chance for peace…
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Boulder attack renews fear in Jewish community, suspect’s family detained by ICE
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10:08Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Joe Veyera discuss the attack in Boulder, Colo., plus more on WorldPride in Washington, D.C., voting on referendums in Italy, impeachment proceedings for the Philippines’ vice president and monsoon season picking back up in India. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and others are als…
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US braces for hurricane season as questions linger over disaster response
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12:17Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Joe Veyera discuss the start of the Atlantic hurricane season and lingering questions over disaster response, plus more on elections in Mexico, Poland and South Korea, and the anniversary of China’s Tiananmen Square massacre. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and others are also ava…
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India-Pakistan airstrikes and business impacts; a light interlude on Australian elections; tariffs confounding everyone, including business
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52:26Hi all! Usually Producer Dave writes these episode descriptions, but he's on vacation and I (Tyler) am recapping this - apologies that there's not the professional intro music, I don't know what drawer Dave keeps it in. This was a heater; Sachin Singh joins past midnight India time to answer lots of questions on India-Pakistan's big escalation. Kie…
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India-Pakistan tensions spiral after strikes in Pakistan, terror attack in Kashmir
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14:00Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor discuss the spiraling tensions between India and Pakistan following Indian strikes in Pakistan and the terror attack in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, plus more on China’s president visiting Russia, elections in the Philippines, India’s prime minister visiting Norway and a US Supreme Court hearing on …
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Tren de Aragua; France prison attacks; early tornado season; six more things to watch
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58:46April 2025 is busy. Tornado season started early. There's conflict brewing in South Asia. France has new terror attacks. Geopolitics happens in real-time. Tren de Aragua is getting more attention in the US than ever. Emergent Risk International and Factal tell you the foundations, the current events and what to watch for around them moving forward …
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India's new waqf law and protests; anti-American business sentiment from tariffs; generative AI in photos and video
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1:00:54Live from India ERI analyst Dev brings us up-to-date on the changes in the waqf law and potential for disruptive protests. Kieran then presents on the potential security impact for US companies in the new tariff regime. Finally Cory demonstrated how the "human eye can no longer tell" when it comes to photos and video created using generative AI -- …
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US stocks rocket higher after Trump pauses most reciprocal tariffs
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12:35Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Rebecca Bratek discuss Trump's tariff war, plus more on the U.S. and Iran holding nuclear talks, elections in Gabon and Ecuador and a court hearing for South Korea’s impeached President Yoon. Our next episode will be out May 1, 2025. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and others are …
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Turkey protests; anti-American sentiment in Europe; militancy in Asia
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56:44This episode of the Global Security Briefing was our five-year anniversary. In it Factal senior editor Halima Mansoor updated the latest situation in Turkey with hundreds arrested after protesting the latest arrests of mayors apposing the national government. Global Head of Intelligence and Analysis Operations for ERI Hanna Poppy spoke to the rise …
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Hundreds detained in Turkey protests after mayor arrested
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10:23Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor discuss the anti-government protests gripping Turkey, plus more on elections in Tajikistan, an immigration crackdown in Pakistan, a national strike in Belgium and U.S. tariffs. NOTE: Our next episode will be out April 10, 2025. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and ot…
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Dozens dead after tornadoes tear across U.S. South and Midwest
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12:29Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Theresa Seiger discuss the deadly tornadoes across the U.S. South and Midwest, plus more on government workers striking in Greece, a criminal court hearing for South Korea’s impeached president, parliament resuming in Canada and Brazil’s Supreme Court weighing charges against a former president. Subscribe to the show: Apple…
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Ukraine-Russia situation and ceasefire; USA-Canada relations; US government shutdown
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57:42The March 13 episode of Global Security Briefing starts with Russia retaking Kursk while the US tries to take their ceasefire agreement with Ukraine to Russia. Next up is an update on USA-Canada relations, the tariffs and what it means for politics in Canada. Finally it ends with a look at why business leaders should be concerned about a US governm…
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Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Agnese Boffano discuss the recent fighting in western Syria that left more than 1,000 people killed, plus more on a U.S. airline resuming flights to Tel Aviv, mining permits in Mali, a court hearing over the White House ban on the Associated Press and Chinese tariffs on Canada.. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotif…
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Trump ratchets up pressure on Ukraine with halt to military aid and intelligence sharing
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17:57Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss the U.S. pausing military aid and information-sharing with Ukraine, plus more on Egypt’s IMF loan, elections in Greenland, U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and a crisis brewing in the Serbian Parliament. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and others are also availab…
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Today's Global Security Briefing touched on the recent spate of terror attacks in Europe, US-India relations and US-China relations plus a long Q&A. Kieran hosted the section on US bilateral relationships while Dave presented a recent briefing on terror attacks in Germany, France and Austria. Since the earliest days of COVID, Factal and Emergent Ri…
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South Pacific braces as three tropical cyclones churn in region
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12:11Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Matthew Hipolito discuss the three tropical cyclones churning in the South Pacific, plus more on an end to the first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza, a deadline to return gas supplies to Moldova, President Trump addressing Congress, and Japanese and British officials meeting in Tokyo. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, S…
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Gang attacks in Haiti rock largely untouched Kenscoff area
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10:03Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Jeff Landset discuss deadly gang attacks in Haiti's Kenscoff area, plus more on elections in Germany and Ontario, Canada, a return-to-office order for US government workers and a toxic debris cleanup deadline for the Los Angeles fires. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and others ar…
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What to watch with the Gaza ceasefire; USAID cutback impacts; five things keeping Kieran up at night
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1:04:04This edition of the Global Security Briefing starts with an update on the fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire and what Factal editors are watching for. Then Emergent Risk International looks at the impact of the dramatic cuts to USAID and what that means for security. Finally we have the return of five things keeping Kieran up at night Since the earlies…
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Chile’s president orders curfews in parts of Araucania as wildfires rage
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16:15Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Jaime Calle Moreno discuss the wildfires raging in Chile, plus more on the Munich Security Conference, a deadline for Hamas to release hostages, the UN Security Council meeting and South Korean President Yoon’s criminal trial. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and others are also av…
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Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Jeff Landset discuss Ecuador's upcoming election, plus more on Baltic countries disconnecting from a Russian power grid, a parliamentary election in Kosovo, the Super Bowl and an African Union summit in Ethiopia. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and others are also available in our…
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DeepSeek; tariff diplomacy; Caribbean security; Mexico's cartels
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51:55This week's Briefing featured stories from generative AI advancements, Trump's tariff diplomacy, Jamaica's security situation and what the designation of Mexico's cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations could mean. Since the earliest days of COVID, Factal and Emergent Risk International have held an essential hour-long briefing for global securi…
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Tensions spiral as Rwanda-backed rebels seize key city in eastern DR Congo
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17:15Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Owen Bonertz discuss the fighting underway in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, plus more on U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada, airlines resuming some flights to the Middle East, elections in Delhi and naval exercises in Pakistan. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and others…
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Precarious Gaza ceasefire holding so far, but tensions remain high
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16:23Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Agnese Boffano discuss the precarious Gaza ceasefire, plus more on the end of the 60-day ceasefire in Lebanon, a presidential election in Belarus, Lunar New Year and the Bank of Canada cutting rates. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and others are also available in our free weekly …
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LA fires aftermath; announced Israel-Hamas ceasefire; 2025 Strategic Intelligence Estimate
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58:24The first Global Security Briefing of 2025 started with a look at the aftermath from the fires in Southern California by Factal Editor Jeff Landset. Then Kieran O'Leary, Director of Analysis for Emergent Risk International, gave a condensed version of their Strategic Intelligence Estimate. Finally, Iman Elbanna from ERI spoke about the announced, b…
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Trump takes office, promising swift changes on Day One of administration
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12:56Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Joe Veyera discuss President-elect Trump's upcoming inauguration and administration, plus more on Russia and Iran signing a strategic pact, election campaigns in Honduras, the World Economic Forum, and the 14th anniversary of the mass protests in Egypt that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak. Subscribe to the show: Appl…
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Moldova’s energy crisis leaves thousands without heat or gas in pro-Russian region
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14:16Editors Jimmy Lovaas and James Morgan discuss Moldova's energy crisis, plus more on Pakistan’s national airline resuming flights to Europe, parliamentary elections in Comoros, nuclear talks between Iran and three European countries and confirmation hearings in the US for Trump’s pick for Defense Secretary. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spo…
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Top Russian general assassinated in Moscow as Ukraine war drags on
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13:57In our final podcast of 2024, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss a series of targeted assassinations in Russia, including the recent killing of a top Russian general in Moscow via an IED planted on a scooter, plus more on winter weather impacting U.S. holiday travel, some European countries scrambling ahead of new U.S. sanctions tar…
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Russian hybrid warfare; Syria civil war; safely using generative AI
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57:11This edition of the Global Security Briefing touched on topics stretching from Seattle to Seoul with stops in Tbilisi, Aleppo and more. Madi started with a look at Georgia's election and the following protests Then she addressed Russian hybrid warfare and sabotage Poormina gave an update on the Syrian civil war as the regime there lost Hama this Th…
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Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Managing Editor Bada Kim discuss the political crisis gripping South Korea after President Yoon's shocking, but short-lived, declaration of martial law, plus more on elections in Ghana and Romania, Netherlands imposing some border controls and rail strikes in France. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and …
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Thousands of displaced Lebanese head home as Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire appears to hold
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13:41Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Agnese Boffano discuss the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, plus more on Iran holding nuclear talks, Taiwan’s president visiting Pacific allies, a possible strike by Volkswagen workers and California’s governor calling a special session of the legislature. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and…
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This briefing starts with a look at the flooding in Valencia, Spain that left more than 200 dead with nearly 100 missing over a week later. Then there is a look at what the results of the U.S. election mean for businesses globally. Since the earliest days of COVID, Factal and Emergent Risk International have held an essential hour-long briefing for…
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North Korea ratchets up tensions with missile launches
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10:38Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Vivian Wang discuss North Korea's recent provocations, plus more on Bolivia’s political crisis, the Greek and Turkish foreign ministers meeting, and elections in Somaliland and Sri Lanka. Note: The podcast will be off for a week, so our next episode will be out Nov. 21. In the meantime, be sure to follow us on X, formerly k…
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Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Joe Veyera discuss the upcoming US election, plus more on Affordable Care Act open enrollment in the United States, UK Conservatives announcing a new leader, a presidential runoff election in Moldova and the state assembly of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir beginning its session.. Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts…
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U.S. election security; security in Mexico; Indonesia's new government
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45:14This briefing starts off with a look at security measures around the upcoming U.S. election from Factal. Emergent Risk International then speaks to Mexico's shifting security paradigm to include measures to bring down homicide, limit cargo theft and attempts to reduce organized crime's influence in the mining sector. Kieran than talks about Indones…
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