최고 Ebury Fx Talk 팟캐스트 (2024)

1
A US election special: How could the vote impact FX? 22:32

12d ago22:32

22:32

November’s US presidential election is shaping up to be a highly important risk event for financial markets. Former president Trump has opened up a narrow lead in the latest opinion surveys, although most prediction models suggest that the outcome of the vote is far from set in stone. But what could the result of the election mean for US domestic a…

1
How rising Middle East tensions could impact currency markets 20:51

26d ago20:51

20:51

The dollar has roared higher against most currencies since our last episode amid a confluence of supportive factors. Heightened tensions in the Middle East have fuelled safe-haven flows, while triggering a move higher in oil prices. US macroeconomic news has also taken a turn for the better, with last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report smashing past …

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Fed stuns markets with bumper 50 basis point rate cut 23:33

1M ago23:33

23:33

The Federal Reserve surprised markets last week, delivering a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut. Yet, the bank’s famous ‘dot plot’ of interest rate projections was moderately more hawkish than expected, which limited the downside in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of England held rates steady, emphasising again that additional cuts are likely to be …

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Dollar struggles amid US economic slowdown fears 24:35

2M ago24:35

24:35

The dollar has had a wretched summer thus far, as investors fret over the possibility of a US recession amid signs of a cooling in the country’s labour market. In this week’s FX Talk episode, our analysts outline whether these economic slowdown concerns are overdone, or indeed justified. They also look ahead to a highly important period of trading …

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Bank of England cuts rates, but what does this mean for sterling? 21:22

3M ago21:22

21:22

The Bank of England slashed its policy rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2020 on Thursday in a narrow 5-4 vote. While this was not fully priced in by markets, the bank’s statement struck a cautious note on future cuts, warning that rates would not be lowered too much or too quickly. This partly allowed GBP to hold its own following t…

1
What Trump assassination attempt means for US election and the dollar 24:45

4M ago24:45

24:45

The last few weeks have been action packed in financial markets. Political news has been front and centre following elections in the UK and France, and the shocking assassination attempt on Donald Trump over the weekend. While the dollar received a modest boost on the growing likelihood of a Trump election win, the greenback is trading lower on mos…

1
French election uncertainty grips currency markets 25:50

5M ago25:50

25:50

Activity in the FX market since our last episode has been largely dominated by political jitters, with both France and Britain to go to the polls in crucial elections in the coming weeks. While the UK general election appears a foregone conclusion, the French legislative elections are anything but. We break down the possible scenarios of the latter…

1
The year of elections - What this means for the currency market 20:20

6M ago20:20

20:20

2024 looks set to go down in the history books as one of the most significant years in global politics in modern times, with almost half of the world’s population to take to the polls in some capacity. A historic rematch between current US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump looks highly likely when Americans take to the polls in …

1
The FX ramifications of a wider Middle East war 23:21

7M ago23:21

23:21

The FX market has been sparked back into life in the past fortnight. A bout of strong data out of the US economy, notably the March inflation and nonfarm payrolls reports, has led markets to push back their timetable for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Heightened tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s missile attack on Israel has also tri…

1
When will the Bank of England cut UK interest rates? 19:38

7M ago19:38

19:38

March was an extraordinarily busy month in the foreign exchange market, with a host of major central bank announcements creating an interesting trading environment. The Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank both surprised investors, with the former raising interest rates for the first time since 2007, while the latter cut its main rate one meeting …

1
Exploring the dollar's decline and busy week of central bank decisions 22:48

8M ago22:48

22:48

The big talking point in the FX market in the past couple of weeks has been the sell-off in the US dollar, which has lost ground against almost every currency globally. FOMC chair Powell has hinted that a first US rate cut may be close, and markets are now eyeing the bank’s June meeting as the start date for easing. US macroeconomic data, meanwhile…

1
US convergence with Europe raises doubts over dollar strength 20:14

8M ago20:14

20:14

In this week’s episode, our analysts discuss the latest business activity PMI numbers out of the G3 economies, which seem to be pointing to a convergence in economic performance between the US and its major peers. Matt, Enrique and Roman also give their thoughts on what to expect from next week’s European Central Bank meeting. While the economy in …

1
UK follows Japan into recession 24:45

9M ago24:45

24:45

The UK economy crashed into a technical recession in the second half of 2023, after Britain’s GDP contracted for the second straight quarter in Q4. While this was no big surprise to investors, the magnitude of the downturn was more severe than anticipated. But, what impact did the news have on the pound? And how could the UK’s disappointing growth …

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FX 101: Jargon Busting - FX terminology made easy 7:35

9M ago7:35

7:35

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doin…

1
Will the UK manage to avert a recession? 21:53

9M ago21:53

21:53

In this week's episode, we delve into key economic data releases and major central bank meetings that lie ahead. Recently, the USD has demonstrated notable strength, rallying across all G10 currencies. The driving force behind this surge? Markets adjusting expectations as the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March dips below 50%, marking the first t…

1
FX 101: FX market structure and the role of liquidity providers 7:48

10M ago7:48

7:48

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doin…

1
What to expect in the FX market in 2024 23:05

10M ago23:05

23:05

In this week's episode, our analysts turn their attention to the year ahead, and give their thoughts on what to expect in the FX market in the coming twelve months. What will be the most important themes in markets this year, and how could central bank easing cycles and the US and UK elections impact currencies? We also give our thoughts on the glo…

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Fed's bold pivot sets the stage for 2024 23:47

11M ago23:47

23:47

In this episode, we delve into the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly dovish shift following its December policy meeting. FOMC Chair Powell said the ‘progress’ had been made on inflation, while noting that discussions were already being had on interest rate cuts. The ‘dot plot’ was also revised lower, suggesting a total of 75 basis poi…

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Falling inflation spells end to central bank rate hikes 20:12

12M ago20:12

20:12

We unpack the recent inflation developments, focusing on the disappointing October US and UK CPI reports. These both fell short of market expectations, leading to no shortage of volatility in markets. US headline inflation dropped sharply to 3.2%, while monthly inflation failed to rise for the first time since July 2022. This, coupled with a two-ye…

1
FX 101: A brief history of currencies 10:50

12M ago10:50

10:50

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doin…

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Fed, BoE and Scandi FX with Ebury’s Head of Nordics 22:03

12M ago22:03

22:03

We have a special guest in this episode of FX Talk, Ebury's Head of Nordics, Carl Lindh, as we debate the outlook for the main currencies in Scandinavia. Before we get into that, we discuss the fallout from the latest major central bank meetings, and October’s underwhelming US nonfarm payrolls report. Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Englan…

1
Middle East tensions fuel safe-haven rush 21:19

1y ago21:19

21:19

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine has taken centre stage, with a focus on the recent Hamas attacks and the Israeli military's retaliatory actions. Meanwhile, financial markets remain fixated on economic data and central bank decisions. Following our previous episode, most currencies rebounded against the dollar, thanks in part to a …

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US dollar reigns supreme: Is the market getting carried away? 18:31

1y ago18:31

18:31

September was a very busy month in the FX market, dominated by a host of major central bank meetings. Events kicked off with the ECB, which delivered a ‘dovish hike’, whereby it raised rates, but suggested that there was minimal appetite to hike again. Investors were taken aback by the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates steady, after the Augu…

1
Turbulence in China: How EM currencies are feeling the heat 23:02

1y ago23:02

23:02

In recent weeks, the USD has performed well largely due to safe-haven flows, which came about because of investors' concerns about economic slowdown in China. The slowdown is being evidenced by disappointing data like GDP, PMI, retail sales, and industrial production, along with issues in the property sector. On the other hand, the US economy has s…

1
FX 101: Understanding Exchange Rate Regimes 9:06

1y ago9:06

9:06

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doin…

1
Central banks turn dovish: Are rate hikes at an end? 28:18

1y ago28:18

28:18

August is typically a quiet month in the financial markets as investors often take a break, seeking sunnier climates elsewhere. In consequence, volatility can be relatively low, and currency trades tend to be narrower due to the lack of substantial economic news or announcements. Predicting whether this pattern will follow suit this year is challen…

1
Dollar in distress: US inflation miss shakes markets 23:48

1+ y ago23:48

23:48

The past fortnight has been eventful with high volatility observed in both Emerging Markets (EM) and major currencies. The significant development was a sharp decline in the US Dollar (USD). Indeed, the USD Index reported one of the largest weekly sell-offs since the Global Financial Crisis. Investors reacted to a less-than-expected set of US infla…

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FX 101: What is GDP, and how is it calculated? 8:32

1+ y ago8:32

8:32

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doin…

1
Major central banks vs. emerging markets: A tale of diverging policies 25:33

1+ y ago25:33

25:33

Recording during a relatively calm period in the foreign exchange market. Most major currencies are experiencing narrow ranges, partly due to the summer season and national holidays, including Independence Day on July 4th in the US. Typically, summers are quieter for currency markets, but they haven't been completely inactive recently. Central bank…

1
Danger lurks in uncertain inflation outlook: How currencies navigate choppy waters 20:07

1+ y ago20:07

20:07

In this episode, we discuss the recent volatility in financial markets due to a number of major economic data releases and central bank announcements. The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish pause, hinting at the possibility of raising interest rates on two more occasions in 2023, while the European Central Bank raised rates yet again and indicated…

1
How the May NFP report rocks the Fed's boat 21:52

1+ y ago21:52

21:52

In this exhilarating episode of FX Talk, our Market Analysts dive deep into the highly anticipated Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) meetings, set to take place on the 14th and 15th of June, respectively. Delve into the speculations surrounding the Fed's decision on interest rates and the impact of the latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) re…

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FX 101: Inflation explained 8:34

1+ y ago8:34

8:34

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doin…

1
EUR/USD slides on hawkish Fed bets, weak euro area data 22:34

1+ y ago22:34

22:34

We dive into the main reasons behind the recent strength of the US dollar in the global markets. The USD has been trading higher against most other G10 and emerging market currencies, except for a few exceptions such as Latin American ones. We explore what's been driving this rally, with a focus on market concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling an…

1
The Fed's rate cut dilemma: 2023 or 2024? 18:47

1+ y ago18:47

18:47

Amidst important data releases, the US NFP beat expectations, but the US CPI reported a decline in inflationary pressures. G10 currencies have seen the USD as the worst-performing currency for the past two months (except for JPY), largely due to an increasingly confident market that the Fed is finished hiking rates after May meeting. In contrast, t…

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FX 101: How do central banks impact the FX market 9:16

1+ y ago9:16

9:16

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doin…

1
China's economy bounces back. But what about its currency? 27:14

1+ y ago27:14

27:14

Welcome to the latest episode of FX Talk, where we bring you all the latest news, headlines, and developments in the foreign exchange market. In this fortnightly dose, we cover the most important events that have occurred since our last episode. Despite a quieter period in the markets, banking uncertainty has been a key focus, which has now signifi…

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Assessing the banking turmoil: Is the market panic an overreaction or justified? 25:41

1+ y ago25:41

25:41

In this episode, we discuss the recent banking turmoil, specifically the failure of SVB and its impact on the market. SVB's sensitivity to interest rate risk and its investment in long-duration bonds led to a significant mark-to-market hole in its balance sheet, causing depositors and investors to withdraw their funds en masse. This panic has contr…

1
Big gamble or smart move? Powell hints at 50bp hike 21:02

1+ y ago21:02

21:02

Today's focus is on the major data that has reshaped expectations for central bank interest rates. Generally, we're observing two things: the activity data is holding up better than expected, and inflation is proving more persistent than hoped. As a consequence, markets are bracing for higher rates for a longer period. Let's start with the US. We h…

1
The UK economy narrowly dodged a recession, but what's next? 22:59

1+ y ago22:59

22:59

Since the last episode, the markets have experienced a relatively quiet period, with most major currencies trading within narrow ranges. There were, however, some exceptions in Scandinavia, where certain currencies rallied sharply. For instance, the Swedish krona jumped following a hawkish announcement from Riksbank. On the other end of the scale, …

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US dollar makes a comeback after NFP smashes expectations 22:53

2y ago22:53

22:53

The current trading environment is marked by volatility and choppiness, with most currencies trading within tight ranges throughout January. This can be attributed to a combination of the absence of major news events and anticipation surrounding announcements from central banks such as the Fed, ECB, and BoE. Starting with the Fed, their latest move…

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How China's reopening will shake up currency markets 22:30

2y ago22:30

22:30

At the moment, the key theme in currencies is an improvement in risk sentiment and an appreciation in high-risk currencies, at the expense of lower-risk ones, such as the US dollar. The USD index has hit a June 2022 low and has fallen more than 10% since October, as the Federal Reserve slows its hiking cycle and global recession fears abate. Among …

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The year ahead: what can we expect from the FX market in 2023? 22:26

2y ago22:26

22:26

What can we expect this year? The narrative in 2022 was much about central bank responses to rising inflation rates. Will that remain the case this year? Or will these central banks begin calling time on their tightening cycles. And what about the global economy? Are recession indeed on the way? Or will we just see modest downturns in growth? In su…

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What China’s reopening could mean for currency markets 19:53

2y ago19:53

19:53

China finally signs of an easing in its zero-Covid policy. It boosted the CNY and risk currencies against the USD. We see an improvement in risk sentiment and also signs of a downtrend of US inflation. We also are noticing growing expectation among investors for a dovish pivot during the Fed meeting next week. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us…

1
Dollar collapses as US inflation slows 17:13

2y ago17:13

17:13

If you’re following financial markets at the moment, there really is very little chance to catch your breath. Since our last episode, the market sentiment has improved and investors dialed back expectations for US rate hikes, weighed significantly on the dollar. Meanwhile, the October US inflation report is much softer than expected. The big questi…

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BoE goes big, but warns of deep recession 17:15

2y ago17:15

17:15

According to the BoE, further increases in interest rates may be required to bring inflation back down to target, but the bank stated that the peak in rates would be '‘lower than priced into financial markets''. On the UK economy, the BoE once again struck a sombre note. In its statement, the MPC spoke of a ‘very challenging’ outlook for the UK eco…

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Pound extends climb after budget U-turn 23:23

2y ago23:23

23:23

Last time we spoke about the reaction in the pound to the budget and the potential impact of the tax cuts on the economy. Since then, we have seen one of the most dramatic U-turns in British political history. Most of the tax cuts (around 80%) that were announced have now been reversed. How have markets reacted? Sterling posted decent gains and UK …

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FX volatility spikes, what UK budget means for GBP 18:47

2y ago18:47

18:47

What are the economic consequences of the mini-budget? Since the initial sell-off, the GBP has recovered in the past few sessions. What are the reasons for the recovery in the pound? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one …

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British pound falls to 1985 lows. Time to buy? 23:14

2y ago23:14

23:14

We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Since our last episode, the US dollar has rallied against almost every other G10 currency, with the sole exception of the Swiss franc, which has benefitted from the hawkish turn from the Swiss National Bank. The main theme in markets has bee…

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S3E15: Dollar loses steam after EUR/USD falls below parity 23:52

2+ y ago23:52

23:52

We’de like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk The main talking point has been the move below parity in EUR/USD for the first time since December 2002. The pair teetered on the brink of parity for a couple of sessions, before falling fairly comfortably below it on Thursday. A divergence…

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S3E14: Everything you need to know about the FX Market in 2022 29:51

2+ y ago29:51

29:51

Time flies when you’re having fun. So, this is a good chance for us to look back on the first six months of the year, and talk about our main highlights in the FX market so far this year. We then look ahead, and talk about what we expect during the remainder of 2022. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast…

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