Up Close And Personal WIth Mr Jim Bonds.
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There is nothing more fascinating than a fixed income instrument. Nothing. Listen to Jim transport you to a world of convexity, basis points, covenants and debt-to-gdp. For professional investors only. No advice here. No mention of funds or products. Personal thoughts, not that of any employer.
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UK Inflation Back To Target. And A Look At The Deutsche Bank Annual Default Study.
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The ‘boiling frog’ impact of higher rates on credit is starting to be felt, but no big default rise until 2025.
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And China leaves rates on hold, despite weak house price news.
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But French assets are really struggling, and credit is starting to weaken.
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French Bond Markets Wobble. And No Bank of England Reserves Interest Grab From Labour.
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Also: a smorgasbord of other bond market ephemera.
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What A Week That Was! Elections Hit EM Assets, ECB’s ‘Unhappy’ Cut, And Bumper US Jobs.
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US rate cut now not fully priced until December.
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Could mean less demand for traditional EZ sovereign debt, especially as France risks a downgrade from S&P.
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Also: credit spreads are tight and stable. It was quiet - too quiet…. And CMBS takes its first big hit since the GFC.
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And it’s not just because of July’s General Election - service sector inflation is too strong. 💪
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Does that mean global growth is reaccelerating?
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Equity Yields Are Way Below Credit Yields. Does That Make Sense?
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And Biden puts 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.
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Aggregate US stats are now disappointing- although the rest of the world is doing OK.
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Also: Swedish rate cut, and no more excess savings left in America.
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2 year US Treasury bond yields drop from 5% to 4.75% in 2 days.
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And H5N1 (Bird Flu) starts to get attention in financial markets. Gulp.
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Also: yen intervention at last? And US immigration at 3 million per year.
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US Growth Slows Sharply in Q1, But Bonds Don’t Like PCE Inflation. 5% 2 Year Treasury Yields.
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And Japanese inflation goes the other way, with a downside shock.
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Ben Bernanke v the Bank of England.
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UJWOB Season 13: Bond Markets Now More Pessimistic Than The Fed On Rate Cuts
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And: Skyscraper - I Love You.
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India 🇮🇳 Special: Bond Index Inclusion In June, And Economic Outperformance
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And RIP behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman.
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Anniversaries Galore! And Has The Fed Changed Its Reaction Function?
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Looser Fed, so Barclays says ‘buy TIPS’.
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Central Banks Getting Fidgety: Moves From Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan.
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And I take a look at Monetary Policy Rules like the Taylor Rule (Spoiler Alert: the Fed should cut now).
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Finally - Good Inflation News For The First Time In Months. UK CPI Below Expectations.
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Also: CPI index rebalancing, corporate default rates, and the extreme injustice of the Nottingham Forest points deduction.
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The BoJ is expected to hike for the first time since 2007 later this week. And the Fed might signal a higher r* via the ‘dot plot’ at this week’s FOMC.
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And in credit-land, the NIP (New Issue Premium) has turned negative!
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The latest US jobs numbers reinforced the market’s view that the economy is resilient, but not re-accelerating.
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What does the Budget mean for gilts? And how does ‘tipflation’ get measured in the CPI?
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No Sign of Inflation Re-Accelerating In the PCE Deflator Data
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And a load of economic ephemera to keep you entertained. Includes a disconnect in the textbooks as to the causes of the Great Depression.
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And the cost of getting your kids driving a car. A drag on economic growth?
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The AI boom could raise the world’s cost of capital.
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And some economics related pop and rock songs. More needed please!
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And the Nikkei approaches its 1989 all time time, having fallen by 81% in the meantime.
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And more motorway related urban myths.
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And US employment is still on 🔥.
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Letter From America: the US Economic Outlook Live From Manhattan
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What’s the best New York song by the way? The LCD Soundsystem one? Velvet Underground’s Waiting For My Man? Fairytale of NY? Empire State of Mind? Don’t say Frank Sinatra.
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How Italy 🇮🇹 Is Financing Its Budget Deficit: Grandma and Grandpa
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Also: a shock for the UK economy with a collapse in retail sales.
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Growth is strong, inflation is back towards target, jobs are plentiful.
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Lowest 2 year yields since May 2023, despite a stronger than expected CPI print.
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Huge supply wave in January.
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Election year - definitely. Soft landing year - maybe.
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2024 Fixed Income Outlook: The Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds Special
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Man I go on a bit. The stuff about The Pogues is at 38 minutes if you can’t face the rest.
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In which Uncle Jim talks you through his brother-in-law’s Spotify Unwrapped.
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And Eurozone inflation falls by more than expected.
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Charlie Munger RIP. And Fed’s Waller Triggers a Bond Rally
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Also Noah Smith on productivity
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Gilts underperformed significantly last week on higher borrowing expectations. Don’t worry though - it wasn’t as bad as the Trussonomics sell-off.
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The Turning Point? Inflation Falls, Bonds Rally, the Dollar Tanks.
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US CPI for a October came in flat, leading to a big move lower in global bond yields.
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We also have Moody’s looking at Italy’s credit rating this week, with the risk of a downgrade to junk.
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Also today - why you shouldn’t necessarily believe in really old people.
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What would you do with your portfolio if you knew Trump was going to be next US President?
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UJWOB Credit Special Part 2: Banks - The Dave Covey Interview
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Banking analyst Dave Covey talks CS AT1s, BoA’s US Treasury bond holdings, CRE lending and so much more.
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The 4.99% US Treasury Yield and the Power of Convexity.
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Also: ‘Kilts’ and Central Bank Stories.
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