Forecasting Home Prices with Pulsenomics’ Terry Loebs

Top of Mind

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Terry Loebs from Pulsenomics for a deep dive into forecasting home prices and the housing market. Terry has been at the forefront of measuring and projecting home prices for decades.

About Terry Loebs

Terry Loebs possesses more than 35 years of experience in the capital markets and in developing innovative data-driven products and services. He started his career on Wall Street evaluating and trading mortgage whole loans and servicing rights portfolios while earning his MBA at The New York University Stern School of Business.

After joining the Case Shiller Weiss, Inc. (CSW) in 1996, Terry led the commercial development of the Case-Shiller Indexes®, the subsequent effort to establish their reputation as a premier home price performance benchmark, and the launch of the first AVM for both consumers and lenders. After the 2002 acquisition of CSW by Fiserv, Terry managed the property data analytics team at the merged organization for three years before reuniting with Robert Shiller at MacroMarkets LLC.

In 2011, Terry founded Pulsenomics®, an independent research and index product development firm that leverages expertise in data analytics, opinion research, financial markets, and economics to deliver unique insight and market intelligence to institutional clients, partners, and the public at large. Since 2010, Terry has managed an expert survey panel comprised of over 150 leading economists, investment strategists, portfolio managers, and real estate market analysts to produce the quarterly Home Price Expectations Survey™, which is currently sponsored by Fannie Mae.

For nearly a decade, Terry also served as lead independent trustee and eventually board chairman overseeing a multibillion-dollar ETF trust until its sale in early 2024.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:

• Can people really forecast the housing market? Or home prices?
• Can we better understand how housing wealth impacts the broader economy?
• Why legacy macroeconomic confidence indicators don’t include housing and why that matters
• What the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey tells us about the housing market for 2024 and beyond
• The surprising way that forecasters’ views for housing in 2024 are different than they have been for the last 15 years
• Why home prices have “downward stickiness”
• How forecasting long-term home prices is different from forecasting the next year and what to look for long term
• The one housing market indicator that 84% of expert panelists agree on
• Which risks are not yet priced into the housing market expectations
• The big macro economic trends that are potentially the most impactful for the housing market in the coming years.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

• Terry Loebs | LinkedIn
• Pulsenomics
• Mike Simonsen | LinkedIn
• Altos Research

Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research

A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets.

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About Altos Research

The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research.

Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels.

Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business.