The Real Estate News Brief: Single Family Rent SURGE! Home Prices are UP!

Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending August 21st, 2021... we’ll look at second quarter home prices, a big surge in rents for single-family homes, and a softening demand for vacation homes.

Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.

Economic News

We begin with economic news from this past week. The Fed released the minutes of its last big meeting in July and acknowledged what many economists have been saying, that the current surge in U.S. inflation could continue into next year. That’s mostly due to a shortage of labor and materials as the nation deals with the latest wave of the pandemic.

MarketWatch reports that the Fed’s July summary mentioned the delta variant six times after not one mention of the virus in June. The Fed previously said that high prices might last a little longer, but in this summary, Fed officials also acknowledged that the “spread of the delta variant may temporarily delay the full reopening of the economy and restrain hiring and labor supply.” And that could put more pressure on prices. (1)

On a more positive note, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard doesn’t believe that the spread of the delta variant will derail the economy. He told MarketWatch: “The economy has clearly adapted to the pandemic situation.” He says both businesses and consumers have found ways to deal with it. (2)

According to published reports, there’s growing support among Fed officials to begin the tapering process. The Wall Street Journal says that public statements from those officials suggest an announcement could be made next month, with a reduction in bond-buying activity beginning a month or two later. (3)

The latest unemployment report shows that initial claims have reached a new pandemic low. They were down to 348,000 for the week ending August 14th, which supports the idea that the economy will weather this new outbreak. We’ll know more next month when many people are expected to return to work as extended unemployment benefits run out, kids return to school, and the coronavirus is hopefully under better control. (4)

Supply chain issues are still impacting home builders. The Census Bureau reported a 7% decrease in housing starts last month. Housingwire says the news is not all bad because housing starts are still 12% higher than last year and the number of single-family homes under construction is the highest since 2007. (5)

But home builder confidence has dropped. The National Association of Homebuilders say the monthly confidence index fell five points in August, to a reading of 75. That’s the lowest it’s been in more than a year, mostly because of supply chain issues and high home prices. (6)

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates didn’t move much last week. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 1 basis point to 2.86%. The 15-year was up 1 basis point to 2.16%. (7)

In other news making headlines…

Home Prices Up Again in Q2

Home prices pushed higher in the second quarter due to overwhelming demand and a short supply of homes. The National Association of Realtors says the sales price for the median single-family existing home was $357,900. That’s up 22.9% year-over-year. (8)

Looking at metros, NAR says that prices were higher in 182 of the 183 metros it analyzes. And in 94% of those metros, the median price was more than 10% higher. Metros with the strongest price growth have been in the South and West. The top gainer was Pittsfield, Massachusetts which is not in either of those regions. Second and third on the list of gainers was Austin, Texas and Naples, Florida. The only metro that posted a decline was Springfield, Illinois.

That said, the overall market has cooled off a bit. NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun says: “The housing market looks to move from ‘super-hot’ to ‘warm,’ with markedly slower price gains.

Single-Family Rents Push Higher

Strong demand for single-family rentals has also continued, and that’s pushing rents higher. CoreLogic says U.S. single-family rents are up 7.5% year-over-year in June. That’s five times higher than rent growth in June of last year. But rent growth is not the same across all price points with the fastest rent growth at the upper end. (9)

Demand for single-family rentals really took off during the pandemic, and it hasn’t slowed down. CoreLogic says they are overwhelmingly preferred by would-be homebuyers who have been either priced out of the market or can’t find a home to buy.

The 7.5% increase includes detached homes, duplexes, triplexes, quadplexes, townhomes, row-houses, condos, and co-ops. If you look at the rent growth for “just’ detached single-family homes, it was 10.5% year-over-year in June and just 4.6% for “attached” rentals.

Demand Slows for Second Homes

The pandemic also produced a surge in demand for second homes, but Redfin says that trend has died down quite a bit. The real estate website says second-home demand fell 21% in July compared to last year. But it also remains higher than it was before the pandemic. (10)

Redfin’s lead economist, Taylor Marr, expects a high level of interest in second homes to continue among those working remotely. He said in a statement: “If you build it -- amid a historic housing shortage -- they will come. I expect vacation homes to remain popular as more homes are built.”

That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!

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Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke and this Real Estate News for Investors.

Links:

1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-worries-delta-could-prolong-shortages-and-keep-inflation-high-into-2022-11629314744?mod=the-fed

2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marketwatch-interview-feds-bullard-says-delta-covid-variant-wont-derail-economy-11629309073?mod=economy-politics

3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-officials-nearing-agreement-to-begin-tapering-in-november-wsj-2021-08-16

4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-drop-to-pandemic-low-of-348-000-in-sign-companies-still-hiring-despite-delta-11629376754?mod=bnbh_mwarticle

5 - https://www.housingwire.com/articles/housing-starts-tumble-in-july-due-to-choked-supply-lines/

6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builder-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-level-in-over-a-year-as-home-prices-soar-11629208832?mod=mw_latestnews

7 - http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/

8 - https://www.realtor.com/news/real-estate-news/home-prices-jumped-across-the-u-s-in-second-quarter/

9 - https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/preference-for-detached-properties-pushes-single-family-rents-higher/

10 - https://www.inman.com/2021/08/17/demand-for-second-homes-drops-for-second-straight-month/