#74: The 5-year Cycle. Market Stability & Timing Your Investment

NOTG - Nuggets on the Go by PropertyLimBrothers

Welcome back to NOTG whiteboard sessions with Melvin Lim from PropertyLimBrothers! In this episode, Melvin discusses why new launch buyers prefer fresh projects, introducing the 4 seasons (spring, summer, autumn, winter) concept in relation to land acquisition and the 5-year property cycle. He explains how these cycles impact pricing and investment decisions, providing valuable insights for timing your property investments.

The session highlights the median PSF of non-landed private new sales by region, showing significant price increases and the effects of past en bloc projects. Melvin covers our government’s controlled release of land to manage property prices and discusses the ownership distribution of private properties, emphasising the niche market for condos and apartments. He also explains how cooling measures like SSD and the revised ABSD have increased the average holding period of properties, stabilising the market and reducing quick sales.

Curious about the future of property prices? Wondering how the decline in en bloc projects and new charges affect the market? Interested in why developers prefer GLS for its cleaner process? Melvin answers these questions and more!

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:44 New whiteboard
01:11 Whiteboard Session Recap
01:40 4 seasons of land acquisition & 5 year cycle
04:36 New Launch sales by region
05:18 Era of HUDC en block projects
06:36 PSF surged to +$400 PSF in 2024
07:18 Non-Landed supply
09:53 Non-Landed ownership distribution
10:49 Non-Landed supply changes year-to-year
11:14 En blocs are at an all-time low.
12:01 Average holding period
13:07 Stable supply
13:37 +$400 PSF every 5 years
16:52 Applying the 4 seasons to the 5-years cycle
18:04 Seasons of where to expect new PSF benchmark
19:36 Preparation for each season
20:16 Summary
21:11 Outtakes