E83 - Debt Ceiling Negotiations: Chickens and Watched Pots

In Search of Green Marbles

G3 and Weiss’s Michael Edwards go deep on the debt ceiling situation, which is playing out in real time before the eyes of a watchful and nervous nation.

In this wide-ranging discussion (recorded on Tuesday, May 23rd at 10:00am), Mike breaks down the probabilities of the various scenarios in which the debt ceiling situation is ultimately resolved. He also weighs in on how the markets could react to a resolution and the impact of Donald Trump in shaping the debate.

Please check important disclosures at the end of the episode.

A final note: We are releasing this episode a day ahead of our usual Friday schedule in recognition of the upcoming Memorial Day weekend.

Time Stamps:

• How does market complacency compound the overall danger of the debt ceiling situation? [2:22]
• What are the positives and negatives of the progress made thus far in the negotiations? [3:28]
• What are the probabilities associated with the various potential outcomes? [9:42]
• What is the likelihood of a last-minute agreement that also enables Kevin McCarthy to retain his position as Speaker of the House? [17:07]
• Will the looming presence of Donald Trump impact the outcome to the debt ceiling drama? [29:46]

Resources:

• The Problem Solvers Caucus
• The Hastert Rule
• Rep. Thomas Massey on the 72 hour rule (video)

Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.