Episode 142 - Big Oil hits brakes on search for new fossil fuels | Biden administration suspends federal leasing | Special Guest Prof. James

Energy Week

On today's show, Ellen Wald and Ryan Ray discuss the woes facing refiners, the implications of the Biden administration suspending federal leasing and discuss Keystone XL with Prof. James Coleman from SMU.
Big Oil hits brakes on search for new fossil fuels
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-exploration-cuts/big-oil-hits-brakes-on-search-for-new-fossil-fuels-idUSKBN29U00V
- tale as old as time
- BP leading the way to not becoming an oil company
U.S. oil refiners set for worst earnings quarter of the pandemic
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-refining-results/u-s-oil-refiners-set-for-worst-earnings-quarter-of-the-pandemic-idUSKBN29U0F0
- will refineries continue to shift away from jet fuel, transportation fuels and more towards components for petrochemicals?
Biden administration suspends federal leasing, permitting
https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/us-gulf-of-mexico/article/14196032/biden-administration-suspends-federal-oil-and-gas-leasing-permitting
- KXL was low hanging fruit
- 60 moratorium on fracking permits
- Is this is the start of more stringent regulations? Yes
- New Mexico voted for Biden. Division between those in federal lands areas and those in cities. But all of New Mexico benefits from the money.
Biden’s stimulus may be too big amid economic recovery, should be targeted at those most impacted
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/24/bidens-stimulus-may-be-too-big-amid-economic-recovery-should-be-targeted-at-those-most-impacted.html
Iraq's dominance over Indian crude market to be tested if Iran returns
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012121-iraqs-dominance-over-indian-crude-market-to-be-tested-if-iran-returns
Special Guest Prof. James Coleman from SMU. Find him at www.energylawprof.com
- Keystone XL pipeline got more cash last year which indicates that it wasn’t doing so well to start with.
- 13 years for an energy transport project give a cautionary tale for investors in energy transportation.
- Trump tried to get pipeline built for 4 years, but nothing really happened. Problems for building energy infrastructure show that Presidents can’t get energy transport built but they sure can kill it.
- More likely TC Energy will request damages under NAFTA. Strong claim on its face, but no claim has ever succeeded against US with NAFTA
- Trans-Mountain expansion will likely go ahead. Only federal approval needed if its inter-provincial. Line 3 Enbridge still could have some hurdles but if they get that replaced and TM in place they might be ok without KXL
- State Energy Cartels - for more information check out Prof. Coleman’s paper here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3567236
- case of Alberta, making every company cut back when prices were rock bottom. Oil price went up 300% - huge benefit to cash flow even with everyone cutting production. Transport constraints played an important role.
- Flaring is down a lot now but usually when transportation is constrained you get higher flaring. Flexible system to phase in small cuts.
- Alberta exempted some of the smallest producers from cuts, which is an important part.
- “Federal anti-trust law is no joke. Don’t mess with it.” But the states can regulate.
- North Dakota and Texas have similar problems with rapid build out and flaring. SImilar model.
- Alberta is a model for good things and mistakes. DIdn’t phase in cuts, cut to rapidly and got rid of differential and killed their crude by rail investment.
- Look at what Texas did before: in the past the federal gov coordinated things.
- In the past, coastal energy consumers would have flipped out at attempts to curb oil and gas production. Now, these people would applaud.
- Because flaring is way down, now is the time to develop regulatory structures.
- Best app, real time info, info that TRC puts out isn’t nearly as good. EIA stats are best in the world.
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