A New Analysis of Democrats' "Way to Win"

Beyond Politics

Do Democrats actually have a chance to hold on to their majorities in the US House and Senate in the midterm elections in 2022? History is not on their side. Since 1946, the average number of seats in the US House of Representative lost by the president's party in the midterm elections is 46. Projections by our recent guest David Shor show that in 2022, if Senate Democrats somehow manage to beat Republicans by a stunning four percentage points they’d only have about a 50-50 chance of holding onto the majority. If they win only 51 percent of the vote, they’ll likely lose a seat — and the Senate.

But our guest today says the Democrats can give themselves a fighting chance by employing the right strategy and focusing on the right places. Colleen Loper is the Senior Director of Political Strategy at Way to Win, an organization founded after the 2016 election to channel more funding from Democratic donors into organizations and campaigns that focus on voters of color. They’ve raised $165 million to do just that, and they recently posted an in-depth study called How 2020 Shapes 2022. Colleen breaks down where the best opportunities for Democrats lie, and also shares insights from her time as a Texas-based strategist on whether Democrats can finally win a major race in the Lone Star State.