Manage episode 258384472 series 2516749
On this special crisis series episode of the Alpha Exchange, I had the opportunity to solicit the insights of Chris Cole, the founder and CIO of Artemis Capital. Through a framework that gives much weight to the impact of financial products and the risk-taking built around them, Chris has a unique understanding of both low and high periods of volatility and the linkages between them. In a paper authored in October 2017, Chris stated, "The markets are not correctly assessing the probability that volatility reaches new all-time lows in the short term (VIX<9 in 2017) and new all-time highs in the long term (VIX>80 in 2018-2020)". Incredibly, he was right on both counts as the VIX dipped below 9 in December of 2017 and recently reached a new all-time high of 83, eclipsing the previous record level from the GFC. He explains his thesis, shares his research on an optimal portfolio, his views on buying options at high prices, and looks forward to what could be several years of a new, much higher volatility regime. This conversation gave me a great deal to think about, and I hope it does for you as well. Please be safe.